The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Blue Diamond Stakes Day preview

Roar Guru
25th February, 2015
Advertisement
The 2017 Blue Diamond Stakes has a huge field (Image: Joe Castro/AAP)
Roar Guru
25th February, 2015
7

Blue Diamond Stakes Day is one of Melbourne’s best Autumn racedays. Nine races, including the $1 million Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) highlight what should be a fabulous day of racing.

I’ll concentrate on the feature first, which is race eight and is due to run at 5.50pm Melbourne time.

Blue Diamond Stakes
The last four favourites have won the race, and the last two winners have come outside Victoria.

I’m really keen here on Sampeah. His prelude run was unbelievable. He looked completely lost around Caulfield and was a clear last at the top of the straight, but he picked up and absolutely savaged the line to run third to Of The Brave.

Sampeah is clearly the best colt in the race, and he represents the value ahead of Fontiton, so I’ll go with him given he does map well outside Lake Geneva, so hopefully he can get the drag over.

Fontiton is the best filly in the race, perhaps the best horse. She was awesome in winning the Fillies Prelude, sitting off a strong speed, coming off the bit on the turn, but surged late and was very powerful through the line. The only negative I have with her is last year Rubick had a hard run in the prelude and failed in the big one. Nonetheless, she’ll be hard to beat.

Lake Geneva went enormous on debut at Rosehill in the Widden when second to Fireworks after sitting three deep no cover. I put her into my blackbook then, and then again after an impressive jump out win last Friday at Flemington.

Lacks the race-day experience, but certainly has the ability and scope to be a threat here.

Advertisement

Selections
Sampeah (5) on top, ahead of Fontiton (8), Lake Geneva (13) and Stoker (1).

Oakleigh Plate
A crack bunch of sprinters have been assembled for the $400,000 Group l Oakleigh Plate (1100), due to go at 5.15pm Melbourne time as the seventh event on the card.

I’m putting Vain Queen on top. She produced a stunning win down the Flemington straight on Oaks Day when winning the Mumm. She was then spelled, and produced a brilliant jump out at Caulfield recently behind Lankan Rupee, and we know what he did in the Lightning.

This mare was due to run in the Lightning, and she was well backed all in but didn’t accept. Fast run 1100m ridden off the speed should suit her perfectly here.

Earthquake gets the lovely weight pull as a three-year-old filly who is tuned right up for a first up Group 1 assignment after two slick trial wins at Cranbourne, and she was made a black booker from the February 9 trial, where she travelled very well on speed and drew clear late under no pressure. Unbeaten at Caulfield and flies fresh.

Shamal Wind was given a peach ride by Dwayne Dunn to win the Adams Stakes first up on Australia Day. Didn’t beat much, but the manner in which she did it was very impressive. Has been freshened up and is ready to go for this after a slick jump out win at Sandown last Tuesday. She ran a fair seventh to Lankan Rupee in this race last year, but she is going much better now.

Selections
Vain Queen (6) clearly, ahead of Earthquake (16), Shamal Wind (5) and A Time For Julia (9).

Advertisement

Futurity Stakes
The third Group 1 for the afternoon at Caulfield is race five, the $400,000 Futurity Stakes (1400m), due to go at 3.55pm Melbourne Time.

Looks pretty simple here – Dissident just wins. He was given the run of the race in the Orr and despite wobbling on the turn he sprinted brilliantly over the concluding stages and put the race away very quickly. Weight-for-age Group 1 1400m at Caulfield, third up… he ticks all the boxes. He’ll be short, but he’ll be winning.

Suavito resumes here for Nigel Blackiston. Interesting to see that she resumes in Group 1 and not the softer option of the mares race, but Blackiston has said during the week that less weight on the mare under the WFA scale compared to handicap conditions of the mares would be more beneficial first up. She probably lacks the killer punch to win an Open Group l at WFA, but her jump outs have been very sharp and she is wound up enough to run a beauty fresh.

Very interested to see how Guest Of Honour goes. Formerly with Marco Botti and now with the low-flying David Hayes and Tom Dabernig stable. He had two runs for Botti during the Spring for an eye-catching ninth in the Toorak before injuring himself in the Cox Plate.

Hasn’t won under a mile, but his jump out effort last Friday at Flemington was very sharp and his form in Europe does read pretty well. Keen to see the market moves with this bloke.

Selections
Dissident (1) the one to beat by a fair margin, over Suavito (8), Guest Of Honour (6) and Driefontein (7).

The other key race comes 40 minutes after the Futurity, the $200,000 Group 2 Peter Young Stakes (1800m). Two of the last three winners of this race had their previous start in the Melbourne Cup, so I’m clearly putting Protectionist on top. His Melbourne Cup win was very high rating, and on face value it was one of the most devastating wins in the history of the race that stops a nation.

Advertisement

His Newcastle trial was sharp and he handled Caulfield beautifully when a close fourth in the Herbert Power in the Spring. Just looks the winner here.

The Orr was dominated by those on speed, but the clear best of the back markers was Spillway, who worked home strongly against the pattern. Looks suited up to 1800m and ran an absolute ripper second up last time in when a close fourth to Dissident in the Makybe Diva. Hard to beat with the fitness edge.

Real Love was another that wasn’t suited by the slow speed in the Orr, but her closing sectionals were one of the best in the race. Up to 1800m looks much more better, and her Perth Cup win was extraordinary two starts ago, so she should be a definite improver as she heads towards the Australian Cup.

Selections
Just looks a lovely race for Protectionist (1), ahead of Spillway (12), Real Love (13) and Happy Trails (2).

In other races on the program:

  • Fast Cash can bounce back in the opener.
  • Politeness looks one of the best bets of the day in the following race.
  • Bottle Of Smoke looks a real up-and-comer and should run a beauty in the Angus Armanasco.
  • Alpine Eagle looks a real Derby prospect and should take some beating in the Autumn Classic.
  • Chester Road can improve with a distance increase and extra fitness in the Mornington Cup Prelude.
close