Group 1 racing in Sydney for 2015 starts off this Saturday at Warwick Farm, with the Western Sydney track to hold its lone major for the season, the $500,000 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m), due to go at 4.15pm Sydney Time.
Contributor looks the clear horse to beat in a star-studded line up, including last year’s winner Boban, who has struggled in two runs back from a break.
Chipping Norton Stakes
You have to go with Contributor. His Apollo Stakes (1400m) triumph was outstanding, albeit he was given a sweet ride by James McDonald and was on the right part of the track. Still, it was a dominant display, and he should have plenty of room for improvement off that.
The tight turning track is a query, but the class is there and he just has to go on top because the first up win was too good.
Lucia Valentina was great also in the Apollo given she got a long way back in the run and was forced to duck and weave her way through the field before going back to the inside, which wasn’t the place to be, yet she still ran on strongly for fourth. Her lone run here resulted in an unlucky placing in the 2014 Surround, and second-up last time she was excellent in the George Main behind Sacred Falls. Good form to be a serious threat here.
The speed map, like in the Apollo, suggests that Ninth Legion will get a very comfortable lead here. He got that in the Apollo and stuck on so well when second to Contributor. Weight-for-age isn’t his go, but he gets a soft lead here, loves firm ground and his last Warwick Farm came last year in the Liverpool Cup when third to Terravista and El Roca. He will give you a great sight at odds.
Selections
Contributor (5) clearly on top, ahead of Lucia Valentina (15), Ninth Legion (10) and Who Shot Thebarman (9), who did trial well recently.
Surround Stakes
The second leg of the Princess Series is the $175,000 Group 2 Surround Stakes (1400m), set to be run at 2.55pm Sydney Time.
Recent history overall suggests that the best filly wins the Surround Stakes, and the best filly in this race is First Seal – by a fair margin. She was enormous in the Light Fingers given she got badly checked midrace, and that cost her the win, though the winner was impressive. Hopefully she won’t be too far away from the gate and with the run under her belt now, she should take a power of beating.
The winner of the Light Fingers was Adrift, and despite her $41 starting price, she was most impressive for Gai Waterhouse. In her first prep she showed no gate speed at all, but come Light Fingers, she settled in the 1/1, appearing to be bolting. She’s a Zabeel, so she will only improve with fitness and distance increase. Smaller track may be a slight disadvantage for her given she is a big type, but she did win here over the mile at the end of her last prep.
Winx, aside from First Seal, was the best of the beaten brigade in the Light Fingers. She got a long way back in the run and was forced to go back to the rail, and she was one of only a couple of runners to have made up ground there. She’s a classy filly, the first-up run was good and she wasn’t far off First Seal second up during the Spring.
Selections
First Seal (2) the one to beat easily, ahead of Adrift (7), Winx (4) and Peggy Jean (1).
Skyline Stakes
The Golden Slipper picture will be made a touch clearer after the two lead-up races, both carrying $175,000 Group 2 status. The first to run is the Skyline Stakes (1200m).
Best bet on the card here thanks to Exosphere. Loved his trial win at Randwick, so I was surprised he opened at $2.80, and was more surprised to see him drift to $3.60. He thankfully backed up the trial and bolted in, winning by a space under hands and heels riding.
The key to him is ride him quiet and with cover. On debut he pulled his head off and ran last. He is one of the better Godolphin youngsters and should ensure his Slipper spot by winning here.
Wolf Cry worked home strongly first up in the Lonhro Plate despite doing plenty wrong in the straight, and probably cost Sebring Sun victory. He was first-up there, so he perhaps raced a tad too fresh. His debut third in the Breeders behind Vancouver was excellent, his trials leading up to the Lonhro Plate were strong and he is in the right stable.
Wouldn’t drop off Odyssey Moon. His debut win in the Inglis Nursery was very good before he was freshened up and ran in the Inglis Classic. He loomed to win here, but his fitness just gave way with about 150 metres to go and whacked away for fourth.
All that prizemoney doesn’t count towards the Slipper, so he needs to win to secure a spot, and the talent he has suggests he could… but I am not sure he can beat Exosphere.
Selections
Exosphere (5) clearly the one to beat, over Wolf Cry (4), Odyssey Moon (1) and Sebring Sun (3).
Sweet Embrace Stakes
The Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m) is a hot race with two winning chances: Always Allison and Speak Fondly.
I am going to go with Speak Fondly. She was well fancied to win on debut in the Gimcrack back in the Spring and ran well when third to Calaverite. She loomed to win that, but it looked as though she hit the front and just had no idea what to do after. Has since been spelled, and has looked most impressive in a couple of barrier trials. If you like her here, have something on her in the Slipper, because her odds will shorten.
Chris Waller isn’t known as a successful trainer of two-year-olds, but he looks to have a sharp filly in the shape of Always Allison. She made her debut on February 4 and absolutely toyed with her rivals, winning by a space. Query is that she didn’t beat much and the time was a second slower than the other 1150 metre race on the program. But she looked most impressive in a trial win at Rosehill recently, and she has the experience around the tricky Warwick Farm circuit, which is an advantage.
Mowgli ran an eye-catching debut second to Italy at Canterbury, settling last in the five-horse field before shoving into the clear and winding up strongly to just miss, possibly throwing the race away by racing greenly.
There looks to be a stack of upside with her, and most importantly she is trained on the track, and Warwick Farm trained runners have a lethal record on their home track.
Selections
Speak Fondly (8) to just get the nod, ahead of Always Allison (5), Mowgli (10) and Italy (3).
In other races on the card:
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