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Whoever wins at Eden Park on Saturday between New Zealand and Australia will have the inside running to take out the ICC World Cup.
The way I see it after 42 matches, New Zealand or Australia will finish one-two in Pool A, with Sri Lanka third and England fourth.
I see India finishing on top of Pool B from South Africa, West Indies and Ireland, with Pakistan missing out.
That being the case, the result at Eden Park will play a huge role in the final make-up of Pool A for the quarter-finals.
The winner is likely to meet fourth-placed Ireland in Pool B in the quarters, while the loser’s to meet third-placed West Indies. If Chris Gayle is to turn in another awesome display like his 215 against Zimbabwe, heaven help either New Zealand, or the Australians.
That’s why the result at Eden Park will play such a huge role in the end result.
The Auckland match-ups are fascinating.
Australian opening batsman David Warner, and opposite number Kiwi captain Brendon McCullum are both just as likely to do a Gayle, and tee off big time. I can’t split them, with one as dangerous as the other, but the other Kiwi opener Martin Guptill has Australian counterpart Aaron Finch covered.
The return of Australian skipper Michael Clarke is one of the major talking points. He hasn’t played a game in anger for 10 weeks, and no matter how many fitness tests he’s passed, Clarke will be a game-by-game proposition, probably for the rest of his career.
If he fires, Australia will probably win.
The next major head-to-head will be Australian firebrand Mitchell Johnson, and Tim Southee, on a high after a career and Kiwi best 7-33 against England. On an accuracy count, Southee gets the nod. On sheer pace and pain, Johnson has the edge. But both are match-winners.
The keeper-batsman role goes to Australian Brad Haddin over Luke Ronchi, while the vital number three batting role goes to Kiwi Kane Williamson over Shane Watson.
In the middle order, Steve Smith, question mark Clarke, Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Marsh can be dominant, especially if ‘Big Show’ Maxwell turns up, and not cowboy ‘No Show’.
As the only Australian spinner, Maxwell can’t hold a candle to ageless Kiwi Daniel Vettori, while there’s not much difference between the rest of the pacemen – Australia’s Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Marsh compared to the Kiwis’ Trent Boult, Adam Milne, Grant Elliott and Corey Anderson.
Keep an eye on Anderson, a dangerous late order batsman, and a left-arm quick that hits the track hard. Very useful.
The bookies have Australia a slight favourite, but not for mine. At the risk of treason, the Kiwis are my pick.
They have played three games to Australia’s one after their second game against Bangladesh was washed out at the Gabba by Cyclone Marcia.
A fourth game in two weeks for the Kiwis as against a second game in a fortnight for the Australians is a no brainer.
No matter how much time and effort the Australians have put in at the nets, nothing can replace the adrenalin of game time, compared to the relevance of net’s boredom.
And I can’t emphasise how important it will be to top Pool A. It can still be a New Zealand-Australia final no matter who wins at Eden Park, but it’s just that the loser will have a far harder road to the decider.