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It’s a huge day of racing in Victoria and New South Wales tomorrow, with the best horses from both states out in force to try and snare the summer and autumn riches.
The Blue Diamond is the headline act of the day across Australia, with a $1,000,000 purse on offer. Not quite the main course of the Golden Slipper, but a nice little entrée all the same.
The form from one to the other has stood up in recent years, Diamond winners Earthquake (2014) and Samaready (2012) going on to run placings in the Slipper, while Sepoy (2011) memorably dominated both races.
The Miracles of Life Blue Diamond (2013) provided fourth and fifth in the Slipper, but there was a wealth of talent behind the Adelaide filly – out of her race we’ve seen Guelph and Dissident claim four Group 1 wins each, as well as the Cox Plate / Australian Guineas double for Shamus Award.
This year’s edition doesn’t look a deep race, with only a few live chances.
Fontiton is the rightful favourite, impressively dismantling her rival fillies in the Prelude after a grinding win in the Preview. Fillies have won the last three Blue Diamonds, and like Fontiton, came in undefeated and short in the market.
Pride of Dubai is the second-elect and the colt to beat according to the bookies. No-one could have missed his run last start, emerging from the pack to almost run down Of The Brave, who had shot away, in the colts Prelude. The extra 100 metres could only be in his favour, but he has to defy the weight of history – not since Principality in 1995 has a maiden saluted in this race. But we’ve had maiden Cox Plate and Victoria Derby winners defy lengthy historical trends in the last 18 months, so it can be done.
Of The Brave has been the forgotten horse if the markets are anything to go by. He was involved in a high pressure speed battle in the Prelude, didn’t handle the Caulfield turn well, and showed an impressive turn of foot to kick a few lengths clear in the straight before tiring approaching the line.
Of The Brave and Pride of Dubai, like Fontiton, beat the others comfortably, so it’s hard to see anything coming out of the chasing packs to turn the tables on these three horses.
If there’s to be an upset, it might be from the consistent and talented Thurlow at the $26 mark, whose form connects favourable to Fontiton, and is drawn to sit midfield and emerge as a chance in the straight.
I’d be staggered if anything other than these four won.
Selections: 1. Of The Brave 2. Fontiton 3. Pride of Dubai 4. Thurlow
The Oakleigh Plate is one of the premier sprint handicaps in the country, always attracting a field of tough, honest and consistent black-type horses.
Seldom does the race end in anything but a blanket finish, and as such plenty of roughies get up. There have been nine double-figure winners in the last 12 years, and the last six victors have jumped at an average price of $17.
Wide barriers are a help rather than a hindrance too, with no winner drawing inside gate 6 in the last eight runnings. Double figure barriers are prevalent on the winners list.
With all of that in mind, we can’t be afraid to chance our arm in this kind of race. If you like something at odds, back yourself in.
Fast N Rocking has won three from six since being gelded before his spring campaign, and in his three losses, he’s only ever been beaten a length. He showed his Group 1 talent as a young horse, placing in the Blue Diamond, and running a game fifth in the Golden Slipper.
His wide barrier will allow him to sit three wide with cover and roll into the race off a hot speed at just the right time under the guidance of the in-form Michael Walker.
The chances in the race are endless. You could take ten in the quaddie and still miss out.
Selections: 1. Fast N Rocking 2. Earthquake 3. Flamberge 4. Bel Sprinter
The last of the Caulfield Group 1 races is the Futurity Stakes over 1400 metres at weight-for-age.
Dissident should make this a one-act affair, already twice a Group 1 WFA winner at this track and distance, and meeting the weakest field he’s seen yet. The last I saw, they were betting $1.80 on a $1.40 chance.
Entirely Platinum will have every chance to run second to Dissident again, as he did in the Orr Stakes a fortnight ago.
The blow-out chance at good odds is Suavito, an underrated mare with a brilliant turn of foot that won first-up last prep at the Caulfield 1400m. Smokin’ Joey can also make his presence felt in contesting the minor placings.
Selections: 1. Dissident 2. Suavito 3. Entirely Platinum 4. Smokin’ Joey
The Chris Waller Chipping Norton Stakes is the other Group 1 being run on Saturday, at Warwick Farm.
The Apollo Stakes provides 11 of the 15 runners, with 3 of the others 100-1 stayers.
The rogue runner is the import Hartnell, having his first run in the country. How often has that been a recipe for success in recent years? He’s trialled well in the lead-up to this event, and it won’t surprise to see him in the finish.
Of the Apollo field, they’re going to have to work overtime to turn the table on Contributor, who won with plenty in hand at Randwick. He’s drawn to get the cosiest of runs again here, and will need to put in a flat second-up performance for the others to have a chance.
Boban doesn’t appear to be the horse he was, but hitting the mile third-up is his go, and he’s a three time Group 1 winner over 1600 metres, including this event last year.
He’s Your Man has the talent to make an impression if he can find a couple of lengths second-up and bring his Group 1 spring form to the race. The two mares, Lucia Valentina and Silent Achiever, can also have a say, but might be one run away from being able to win.
Selections: 1. Contributor 2. He’s Your Man 3. Silent Achiever 4. Hartnell