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All eyes will undoubtedly be on Warrick farm and Caulfield this weekend as the many of the stars of Australian racing pursue autumn glory. However, it would be worth your while to cast a beady eye across the ditch this Saturday.
Ellerslie plays host to the $725,000 New Zealand Derby, a race which has historically had strong effect on both the New Zealand and Australian racing landscapes.
1989 winner Castleford went on to win a Caulfield Stakes, 1990 winner SurfersParadise later won a Cox plate. Bonecrusher won the Derby in 1985 and went on to win both and more in an absolute cracker of a career.
More recently Jimmy Choux and Silent Achiever have launched successful Aussie campaigns with a win in the Derby.
This year looks to be a two-horse race – favourites aren’t known to miss, taking out seven of the last nine since the race moved to the autumn.
Volkstok’n’barrell has all the makings of a bonafide superstar. The gelding came to attention by casually dealing with a handy field by four-and-a-half lengths in the Bonecrusher Stakes in September. He then chalked up a further three impressive wins before being brought down to earth when running third to rival Mongolian Khan in the traditional lead up, the Avondale Guineas, over 2100 metres. He flew home late however, leading me to think 2400 metres will suit him down to the ground.
He’s fared well in the draw and will jump from four. Top that off by being trained by Donna and Dean Logan (the minds who brought you Rising Romance), who always have their horses prime on the day. He’s all class and the one to beat.
Chances are, if Volk doesn’t win it, Mongolian Khan will. He has been super impressive winning his last four straight, including a convincing win in the Avondale Guineas, where he took a lead from about the 1200 and never looked back. He’ll struggle to do that today, drawing 12, but if he can dictate terms he’ll be very tough to beat.
He may be found out if he has to come from the back, but has proven his class and the distance shouldn’t trouble him. He’s been popular in the betting for good reason.
The best of the fillies appears to be Vavasour. Her lead-up was the Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000 metres, which she won impressively against a good field. She is another who would like to lead but has also drawn poorly in gate 15. Seven of the last nine winners have come from the guineas, which she bypassed. Read into that what you will, but the 2400 metres should be no issue at all. She is a definite chance at slightly longer odds.
Of the roughies, I like Prima. He is a maidener, but if Shamus Award has taught us anything, it’s not to hold that against them. Prima’s last two starts saw him find the line strongly over 2000 and 2100 against quality horses. Looks tough and should run 2400 well.
Sound Proposition ran on very strongly in the guineas, suggesting the distance will be ideal. He’s also by Savabeel, so is a chance off that alone – has drawn poorly in 16 however.
Midnitemagicman has more going for him than an insanely cool name. He ran a strong fourth in the guineas and gains five-time Derby winner Vinnie Colgan to ride. May struggle with the extra 300 metres however.
Margin Trader ran on very strongly when finishing third behind Mongolian Khan over 2000 two starts ago, but failed after being caught wide in the guineas. I’m willing to forgive that. He’s drawn well, but his best hope is likely a place.
Selections
Volkstock’n’barrell (1) to put Sydney on notice and give them a towelling, over Mongolian Khan (2), Prima (8) and Vavasour.
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