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With the season just a few sleeps away, it is time to put in your premiership tips. I’m going past all of the heavyweight teams who have either won or at least contested grand finals in recent years and tipping Penrith to win the premiership.
I don’t doubt a few other teams, including South Sydney, Sydney Roosters, Canterbury, North Queensland and Brisbane, as genuine contenders, but I don’t doubt Panthers coach Ivan Cleary and the makeup of his side, either.
The thing I keep going back to is the fact Penrith almost made the grand final last year despite losing four important players, including their halfback and captain Peter Wallace, as the regular season wore on. The others were Tyrone Peachey, Elijah Taylor and Bryce Cartwright.
All four were having terrific seasons when they got hurt, but being without them didn’t stop the Panthers from beating the Roosters 19-18 in the elimination final and then being in the game right until the end before losing 18-12 to Canterbury in the preliminary finals.
Why? Good-quality depth was one reason. The season before, the Panthers crumbled in the latter rounds because of injury.
They didn’t have the depth to cover on that occasion, so they made sure they had it last year by shopping smartly in the off-season.
But it’s one thing having a good roster. It’s not going to take you to the top unless you’ve got character, belief and a very good coach who can get a team to play to a style that gives that particular line-up its best chance of winning consistently.
I rate Cleary very highly as a coach. He reminds me of Wayne Bennett, the way he carries himself. He rarely gets flustered and he treats winning the same as he treats losing – he doesn’t get carried away with the former and he doesn’t get too down about the latter.
He knows there are going to be bad days to go with the good and he concentrates on the big picture.
That may sound like the obvious approach to take, but when you see the extreme reactions of some coaches to the ups and downs that come with what is for many a roller-coaster ride through the season, you realise the obvious approach is not automatically adopted by everyone.
The ones who best maintain that balance are the ones who have the utmost confidence in their structures and processes and an unshakeable belief that what they are doing each day is right.
The team is an extension of the coach. If the players see that the coach is calm and unflappable, and not showing any uncertainty when the plan is put under pressure, then they are calm and unflappable – as calm and unflappable as you can be on the field when you’re in the heat of battle for 80 minutes, anyway.
The key is that they don’t lose faith. You’re not going to win every game, and sometimes you might even lose badly, but you continue to believe. You don’t start second-guessing.
Last season is all the proof the Panthers need that Cleary knows exactly what he is doing.
Cleary got the Warriors to the grand final in 2011 after they had been eliminated in the first week of the finals under his coaching the year before.
During their existence, the Warriors have surely been the most frustrating of teams to coach, because of their inconsistency and failure, more often than not, to reach their potential.
But Cleary never appeared to lose his cool there.
There have been plenty of coaches the Warriors haven’t responded to. Cleary is among the minority to whom they did.
The Panthers have responded to him as well.
I will be stunned if Cleary finishes his coaching career without winning a premiership – probably multiple premierships. I just think he’s too good not to. I don’t think he needs a particular advantage – just even luck.
It may happen this year, it may not, but I’m convinced it will happen eventually.
What I think about Penrith is that they’re good enough to take that extra step now, under Cleary’s direction.
A few other teams are good enough to take that extra step as well, or go back-to-back in the case of the Rabbitohs, but you can’t tip them all and I’m sure the Panthers will give me a very good sight.
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