After a long summer break, we had our first taste of AFL action on the weekend. While it was only pre-season footy, there was plenty to take out of it.
1. ACL impact
Two reigning best and fairest winners went down in the space of 24 hours at the weekend with West Coast losing Eric MacKenzie and Western Bulldogs losing Tom Liberatore to the most wretched injury a footballer can suffer.
Already a lot has been made of what these losses mean for both clubs in 2015. West Coast’s finals chances hindered, Western Bulldogs midfield development hindered and so on. Bear in mind this is often a two-year injury.
To expect Mackenzie and Liberatore to be back at best and fairest form in 2016 would be to defy what history dictates. These are two individuals that appeared to be going into career best and team defining roles.
Now the state of two clubs is in flux. West Coast’s plans of using Jeremy McGovern as a swing man are likely dashed and Western Bulldogs are potentially going to see Marcus Bontempelli thrust into further opposition spotlights.
Make no mistake, these injuries are not just about 2015 – there will be some real long-term problems for both sides.
2. Overreaction theatre: The good
This time of year is notorious for players racing out of the blocks. With Fantasy AFL starting to play a bigger role in the game as a whole, it has ushered in a new wave of interest for individual players at this point of the season.
Some performers from the weekend have a habit for this tactic – i.e. Jesse White and Shaun Higgins – while others made the most of opportunity, for example Majak Daw, Zac Smith and Jed Anderson.
As long-time fantasy players will know, the key is looking beyond the numbers and instead looking at what was meaningful and sustained impact. Tough to establish in games that mean so very little in the mix of a long season.
3. Overreaction theatre: The bad
While players over-performing typically get all the praise at this time of year, a club that suffers what is perceived as a shock loss can quickly change public perception.
In the space of one weekend, the two perennial contenders of the past decade in Hawthorn and Geelong had their premiership chances written off.
This overreaction is fraught with danger. As the NAB Challenge continues to mean less as a competition, the performances at team level should be counted for little.
Still, for the general public, one poor performance, regardless of that state of the game is enough to make the bold calls.
4. Change of stripes
It seemed a series of players relished getting a competitive hitout in new club colours. Mitch Hallahan, Travis Varcoe, Shaun Higgins, Mitch Clark, Levi Greenwood, Dayne Beams and Tim Membrey among a group of players that had an impact in new environments.
With free agency continuing to play such an important role in list management of AFL clubs, seeing players come in and have an immediate impact is likely to only continue to encourage this practice.
5. New tricks
Results and performances should matter little at this time of year with instead more focus placed on role and development. A couple of young players showed those signs of development at the weekend.
Reigning rising star winner Lewis Taylor showed his scoreboard impact with two goals, budding rookie listed ruckman Corey Gault showed contested marking had improved in his game, Brad Crouch showed his inside improvement with an impressive nine clearances and Nick Vlastuin showed his defensive improvement highlighted by six one percent acts and three tackles.
At this time of year, little things like this from young players are more important to clubs then seeing the star players racking up their regular array of numbers.
6. Contested possession
Every year the AFL seems to evolve and with that evolution certain statistics become more relevant, while other areas become less important. It is this evolution and ongoing change that made FoxFooty’s short lived recipe for success such a failure.
AFL clubs never live in the past. This weekend, albeit off a small sample size, contested possession appears to becoming the pivotal statistic in a contest.
All six of the weekend’s pre-season winners won the contested possession statistic. Interestingly still is the width of margin in the contested possession battle was replicated on the scoreboard with Collingwood and West Coast two teams who won big in both areas.
Conversely, Brisbane and Adelaide had narrow wins in both areas. Keep an eye on the contested possession count to see if this trend continues through pre-season.
7. Death of the supergoal
Over the first weekend of the NAB Challenge just eight supergoals were scored. The change in format of the pre-season and with advanced metrics taking a hold within AFL clubs, the value of a supergoal has never been lower.
Clubs are more focused on getting the processes right in pre-season and the value in long range shot attempts has indeed been devalued. This gimmick could well have run its race and it is hard to fathom the AFL continuing with this scoring model beyond this year.
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