- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
The NRL has announced a $49.9million surplus from 2014, which is obviously a fantastic result for the sport.
While there were a range of reasons for the accumulation of the cash, crucial in this announcement was the huge TV deal – an amount which is likely to grow next time around.
The only thing we know at this stage is that the NRL will have more content to sell next time, and they are prepared to change things up as they work with networks to harness the sports’ popularity.
As it is, by 2017 the NRL will have received $1.2 billion from TV, and will have generated around $6-800M in non TV revenue.
There are some out there who think that a big deal for the AFL will mean less for the NRL, but this is not the case. Even if there is one less network in the bidding process, it can still be very competitive.
Channel 10 was hurt last time after missing out on both sports, so it is likely that they will go hard for either game.
Imagine how it’s going to be this time with no first and last rights?
Channel Seven really want to retain the AFL – some of the things they’ve done with the telecasts work well for them.
The next AFL TV deal will be completely different in many respects. It’s clear they think they may be getting left behind in getting the public used to different slots and staples like night time grand finals that pay out more, such as other sports have. Don’t be surprised when they get $1.6 billion or more if it’s a standard length deal; and don’t be surprised when the NRL get something like that as well.
If you look at it dollar for dollar, by the time you have a few offers going back and forth and everyone getting into the nitty gritty, you begin to find out what you can do for each other and discuss what you’re prepared to do.
It could happen that a network pays a premium to win the sport in the end, so maybe your $1.6 billion becomes $1.7 or $1.8. I think two for either is obscene, based on my general feel, but I can’t be sure
I could see $2 billion possibly being reached by the NRL if they showed and pushed it nationally, and worked up the Melbourne market for the Storm, along with new teams.
I think people underestimate what a massive money spinner a second Brisbane team would be, along with the value of a Perth side. Within five years, given that Origin is starting to show decent numbers in Perth, you’d be more hopeful of a better result than what GWS does on television, for instance.
Both sports are busily talking up the price. The AFL is going to do things a bit different during the next deal, or so the word goes. Who can blame them because as the NRL have shown that people may whinge and complain, but they don’t tune out.
The exception is the lower-ranked games, offset by the fact that the highest ranked matches are on free-to-air tv. But there’s differences and efficiency here (and pleasure for fans) that could be massively improved. The AFL may decide to add in an extra fixture day, as one of a number of things it could do.
It didn’t seem to stick when they tried it last time, but you never know.
All anyone talks about with TV deals these days is maximising the value you get from them. If the AFL have to hand over some more control to networks, I think they will.
Right now the NRL is giving away (due to contractual matters) things like the Nines, The World Club Series, and the Four Nations for free. Those things are only set to grow in value over the next 5-10 years.
Also, the NRL is increasing its focus on going where the money is.
The speculation from people is that the NRL could be a $2 billion game in the next round of TV talks.
You’ve got ready made value in having the extra competitions being paid for, instead of bundled in the existing agreement – and you’ll probably have two extra games, one going into an entirely new market in Perth that’s shown it will watch rugby league, even in the pouring rain.
Then you’ve got general inflationary pressures, CPI, and whatever else.
I think you’ll be seeing offers of $1.6 billion or more for each sport. The AFL reckon they are even walking in with that figure to start off with.
The AFL really seem to be wanting to change it up, and so do the NRL. When people say to us they can’t see them getting more, that’s a fair comment – but we must consider that they’ve considered that and are prepared to change it up.
The NRL is even looking at having more teams, less NRL games and more internationals and world club matches. The NRL are also trying hard to balance player workload, and ensure each NRL game is at its highest desirability level for ratings (possibly by shortening the season, and rationalising the State of Origin period).
We also must realise that both bodies sat through the negotiations last time so they are aware of what the networks need, just as they networks are aware of what the sports need. They will work out how to pay more together. And that’s not to mention the potential of a bidding war.
Don’t forget, Channel 7 has already set the tone on bidding next time; while I personally don’t believe in the $2 billion figures bandied about, I believe the sports and networks will work out how to pay more and get more out of it.
They don’t do this for greed, they do it as a reflection of the increasing popularity, and as the NRL is demonstrating with things like
– 140,000 new juniors last year
– The three highest ratings shows on TV in 2014
– Season that goes from February to November
– 22 attendance records, including that big Easter crowd
– Massive social media reach
– Regions crying out for teams
– Focus on the Pacific,
– New Zealand TV contract
– Internet/mobile rates are way up
– NRL has the widest reach, largest junior networks/second tier
– Memberships broke 250k last year, and are increasing again 10per cent this year too, seemingly.
It’s showing that it’s growing. In fact when you put all that out, $1.6-1.8 may not be out of reach for the NRL, or the AFL either.
If you want my ultimate money, I would say the NRL will get a larger increase than the AFL, but they will probably end up being very similar in size.
We must remember revenue is the final say.
And as for the networks, they are not the last line of defence in money making. They are part of larger empires now. With creative accounting, you can offset a lot more.
Unless you’re a big tech company who can buy up anything, you just reach into the bank. For the next level down, you shuffle a bit more.
There’s more room than they let on I think, when combined with the philosophy of making changes in the way sports do things.
In terms of the surplus. Get used to the good news about viability. The fact of the matter is sport is more important than ever. You can’t talk this down. If you go over the 2014 NRL report with a comb, it’s impressive what the sport has done.
I told people on The Roar a few years back you wouldn’t recognise the sport (for the better) in the future with all the changes. Now’s not the time to doubt it.
These next deals with be bigger again. So much has changed for the networks and the sports in the past 20 years.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.