SMITHY: Fumbling my way through the NRL's first round of matches

Expert

3rd March, 2015

1809 Reads

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Brian Smith

Expert

3rd March, 2015

1809 Reads

I remember footy season 1981 when Margaret, the wonderful lady at reception of James Cook Boys High School, won the tipping comp. She backed it up in 1982.

She shared her secret with me – take the team ahead on the table or the home team if they are equal on points.

Staggeringly simple. Does it still work in today’s footy? I have no idea, but I share it with you as I understand how ego-boosting it is to do well in the tipping comp.

While coaching all those years, it used to amaze me how some people got so much more enjoyment watching a footy match when they had a tip involved. These days some of my mates are almost uninterested unless they have a bet riding on the match on TV.

If there is that much fun to be had, it’s time I have a crack.

So what do I have to offer in these new-for-me footy pastures? Not much I fear, but here goes…

With no real form to utilise, tipping in Round 1 must be the toughest.

Every season’s opening round seems to have blow-outs and surprises – just look at last season’s Round 1. Souths by 20 over Roosters. Panthers by 22 over Knights. Dragons by 20 over Tigers. Eels by 20 over Warriors.

All those winners were at home. Surprises? Only Titans beat Sharks away.

I am following a small form line in my first tip. Melbourne have won their past 10 season openers, and nothing the Dragons have done since their last disappointing season suggests they can ruin that record of the Storm.

Souths appear to have no hangover, winning Charity Shield, Nines and World Club Series. Brisbane look solid but lack attacking threat.

The Sea Eagles have been the best ‘character under pressure’ team for many seasons, and despite conjecture over Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran, they will be again in 2015. The Eels might take some time to adjust without Jarryd Hayne.

The Aussie humidity on Saturday arvo at Newcastle favours the Knights over Warriors, and Kurt Gidley back at fullback will add plenty to the home team’s attack and attitude.

Likewise the Queensland humidity favours North Queensland over the Roosters, and Sydney losing Jake Friend – Anthony Minichiello’s co-replacement as captain – to long-term injury could be a real thorn in their start.

The Sharks could have a problem with being too excited about the fresh start given all their issues of last season. But Cronulla’s forwards should dominate, which will make life very difficult for Canberra’s new halves combo Mitchell Cornish and Blake Austin, as well as Super League import Josh Hodgson at dummy half.

The two most difficult games to predict a winner are Panthers vs Bulldogs and Titans vs Tigers.

I can find more reasons for both Titans and Tigers losing, so I am going for a home-team surprise win for the Gold Coast.

The addition of Brett Morris at fullback will make a high percentage difference to many aspects of the Dogs attack and maybe defence (how they made the grand final with a makeshift fullback is still a marvel to me!). All the hype around Panthers to win the comp might be a distraction.

I am clutching aren’t I! Dogs to win.

For those who like a little punt, start the season with a small win by backing the unders on points scored in the season opener in Brisbane.

Have a crack at your own tips in the comments to show me how this tipping caper is done.

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