- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
In the first three rounds of Super Rugby, every team that has kicked the ball out of hand less than their opponent has only won on three occasions. And in each of those instances, they broke the line or beat defenders at a prodigious rate.
For instance, in Round 1 only one team with fewer kicks won. That was the Chiefs, who had to beat 22 defenders.
In Round 2, the Waratahs managed the feat, but beat 28 defenders. In each case, the kick differential was only two to three kicks, depending on which statistic resource is used.
I noticed this trend while trying to come up with a tipping theory. I have posted this theory a few times, without vouching for its long-term viability.
Some have challenged me to distinguish between kicks. There are exit kicks that must be made, there are attacking grubbers or cross-kicks, aimless punts and little dinks and raking line kicks.
Some are kicks of choice, and some are realistically no choice.
I cannot find that data easily, so I watched a game I had recorded (Reds versus Force) that had a 40-28 kick-from-hand margin. It was hard to watch, actually, but I could fast-forward past several three-minute scrum resets (and a penalty try to the dominant Reds scrum).
I divided all the kicks into ‘choice’ and ‘no choice’ categories.
The Reds kicked 24 times by choice, while 16 were essentially mandatory. Mandatory means that they were either pinned deep inside their 22 without support or space, had penalties that were beyond range or they were kicks from a mark. Forty per cent of the time, their kicks were discretionary.
The Force kicked 19 times by discretion, and nine times without a real choice. Also, they had to chase the game from when it was 18-6 to the Reds, and so they kept ball in hand more often. The Force’s kicked by choice at a rate of 68 per cent, often necessitated due to a good kick-chase from the Reds.
Will Genia booted nine box kicks. The first one was poor and led to the Force scoring three points. The second was bad, too, but the Force bungled the catch. The third was very good, but the fourth was so telegraphed that the Force launched a proper counter-attack. The fifth was brilliant, and led to a five-metre attacking Reds scrum, which ultimately, after many resets and penalties, clinched the match with a penalty try.
The sixth box kick went too far, and into the try area. The seventh, eighth and ninth were OK in depth, but one went out on the full.
The Reds used a few grubbers, although none of them really worked. I rated all the kicks into categories of good, OK or poor. The Reds’ ratio was 10-21-9.
The Force kicked less expertly, with a ratio of 8-10-10. They tried only one box kick, and used more grubbers to get into the Reds’ 22.
There were a few times when the Force should have kicked when they did not. The Reds could have kicked less and still won, but one of the few times where they ran and passed out of their 22 led to a magnificent team try.
I think even if you subtract all the mandatory exit kicks, the overall kick-from-hand statistic usually holds up, in approximate fashion.
From the real story appears to be the quality of the kicks. For top class kicking from hand, watch Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton’s win over England last weekend. Any team in the world, including the All Blacks, would struggle with that many well-placed, well-timed and well-chased bombs falling on the 23 or 24-metre line, in damp air.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.