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Despite the hype, despite the favouritism, I’m willing to go on the record. South Africa can’t and won’t win the 2015 Cricket World Cup.
Yes, I was saying this before they were trounced by India. And yes, I’m still saying it after their 400-run efforts against Ireland and West Indies.
It may seem strange to say about a team containing the world’s top two ODI batsmen: Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers top the ICC rankings.
De Villiers is a superman against West Indies: 149 from 44 balls in January, then 162* from 66 this World Cup. The latter broke the record for the fastest 150 in ODIs by 19 balls. (Sorry, Watto.)
A feature of de Villiers’ 149 was the way he moved a yard outside his off stump, genuflected, and swept knee-high full tosses over backward square for six. A feature of de Villiers’ 162* was… well, the way he moved outside off stump, genuflected, and swept knee-high full tosses over backward square for six.
Old Cobra-Eyes, they call him, when his swaying and hissing hypnotises bowlers and makes them deliver the ball exactly where he wants it. But surely bowlers who’ve planned, kept their cool and can adapt to his movements have the chance to exploit his all-out attack.
Amla is one of the classiest players around, playing conventional shots all round the wicket at a strike rate well over 100. In terms of innings played, he’s racking up centuries faster than any batsman in history. He’s just scored his 20th, putting him in the top dozen on the all-time list after barely 100 games.
But these two can’t deliver every time, as much as Amla is close to it. As we saw against India, there are days when they’ll miss out. The knockout stages require three wins in a row. At some point, surely, the stars won’t deliver.
Elsewhere their batting has equal promise and weakness. Faf Du Plessis has had some famous Test performances in his short career, but four years around the ODI team have produced little of note.
Up to the start of this Cup, a frolic in Zimbabwe last year had been his lone spike, netting 59, 55, 40, 96 and all three of his career centuries in a series against the hosts followed by the tri-series with Australia. Outside those eight games, du Plessis’ other 60 matches averaged 26.84. He picked up a ton against Ireland this week, but read into that what you will.
Quinton de Kock started in a blaze but has slumped so far this year. David Miller got his first couple of centuries recently, but did so bashing up West Indies and Zimbabwe. Even as a lower-order specialist bat ending a third of his innings not out, his average is just over 38.
If South Africa’s batting might not click one time out of three, it’s more often that a decent side will get on top of their bowling.
One of their blue-chip bowlers is Imran Tahir, who has copped plenty of derision in his career but has made himself incredibly hard to hit in any sustained way through the middle of an innings. The other is Dale Steyn, who is magnificent.
Of course even Steyn gets smacked sometimes, as any ODI bowler must: it doesn’t even require bowling badly if edges and miscues find the fence. But his pace colleague Morne Morkel is susceptible to collapse. Supposedly menacing, he ends up being the one looking vulnerable. He bowls no-balls every game, offering free hits. His pace comes down as he gets flustered.
One of my clearest memories this World Cup is an innings from Zimbabwean tailender Solomon Mire. First he whipped Steyn off his pads for six over square leg, then smacked Morkel way back over the stands, literally out of Seddon Park into a distant tree.
The first six was impressive but still a respectful cricket shot. The second was disdainful. More than a few batsmen treat Morkel this way. Sometimes it seems like he thinks he deserves it.
As for the rest, even South Africa don’t know what they’re doing. Vernon Philander has been injured, has only played a handful of ODIs, and has the kind of steady trajectory that gets you targeted in this form. Kyle Abbott isn’t yet trusted or rated as a replacement. And that’s before you reach the fifth bowler conundrum.
Since Jacques Kallis retired South Africa have tried to conjure an all-rounder. They’ve tried Ryan McLaren, Wayne Parnell and Farhaan Behardien. They get some overs out of JP Duminy from the top six, but can’t rely on him for a full 10, so the No. 7 spot keeps coming up.
The problem is that no one fits it. McLaren is a good bowler but has been clobbered too many times by Mitchell Johnson to bat that high. Parnell raises the team’s Amish beard quotient, but doesn’t bat much better than McLaren and his bowling is liable to be smashed.
Then there’s Behardien, of the gloriously terrible dibbly-dobblers, making Chris Harris look positively like a paceman. Yes, he gets the odd wicket holed out on the fence, but so does anyone. With the bat he’s offered scores of 12 runs or fewer in 13 of his 19 ODI innings.
A good team on their day would pillage Behardien like a Spanish galleon. At that point AB de Villiers would have to bring his own net bowling on, the one sporting pursuit that he doesn’t do to a freakish standard, and he should receive the same high-seas treatment.
Even the fourth bowler is a glaring weakness for South Africa, let alone the fifth, while the third is pretty suspect as well. A frontline of two isn’t going to shoot out many good line-ups, or be much chop at defending totals.
South Africa have some brilliant players, a sense of composure, and a bone to pick with this particular tournament. But offsetting their weaknesses for three games running against good opposition? I can’t see it happening.
Make sure to save this piece to leave smug comments should things end up very differently on March 27.