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What will the Australian sporting landscape look like in 2025?

What is Australia's football identity? (Image: AP)
Roar Guru
4th March, 2015
5

Death, taxes and change are the three certainties in life. Australian sport is no different.

Ten years ago there was no Big Bash, no A-League and a much smaller Super Rugby competition along with a smaller AFL.

In ten years time, what changes will we see in Australian sport? Here are my bold predictions.

The biggest change will be the growth of E-games. Already they are streaming huge viewer numbers and every kid has a computer. If you watched an E-tournament the format is identical to the way other codes are presented. It should be recognised some E-tournaments have more than 80 countries competing in them.

The prize money is huge by any standard today and in the future it is foreseeable E-games will pay more for team members than local football codes.

The next biggest change will be in combat sports like boxing, where decline will continue. The future of tennis and golf is difficult to determine, as the cost to develop as a player is huge and outside the top 50 players or less, income is limited.

The next biggest change will be extreme sports, taking huge numbers from Olympic sports. Iron man, BMX bikes, mountain train riding, surfing etc will take over from long jumps, shot-put and swimming.

Cricket will go through a change, with national bodies giving way to club type competitions. Twenty20 will become the main revenue earner of the game and more traditional Test matches will struggle to hold their place in the pecking order.

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I believe that a Twenty20 club type competition could be set up in Australia and run for maybe five months with agreed international breaks, much like football today.

Rugby union of all the codes is today under the most pressure. There is pressure for players, revenue and media, just to hold its present position. I don’t see union being able to hold its place a slow decline in Australia with overseas growth assisting the local game.

Rugby league could be the big mover as it expands, especially with its desire to develop in the Oceania a region of almost 11 million people. These countries are currently union countries, but with the power of the NRL they could become more interested in league.

I see annual Test series in Oceania making this region a league region. Add Western Australia and growth looks positive.

Netball will continue to grow especially as women have more say in what sports are watched. This will be positive for football and basketball too.

Basketball will grow especially as the game grows at international levels, particularly with the success of Australians in the NBA.

Baseball will continue to struggle in Australia.

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AFL, arguably the best managed sport in Australia, enjoys by a long way the best stadiums and has the best crowds. AFL’s biggest advantage and disadvantage is its lack of international competition.

I believe the lack of an international presence will over time hurt the AFL. Also, the other codes along with cricket and tennis will catch up to the AFL in the way the sport is run.

I think the AFL will grow but not at the same pace as some other sports.

Football’s growth will be steady and by 2025 will be a major second code in all states and territories. The two big challenges for football are converting the player base and their connections to football supporters, and improving the technical standards at park levels today.

If media deals are a measurement of growth, football will have very solid future.

To summarise, we will see a fairly steep decline in many Olympic sports, with E-games and extreme sports to enjoy healthy growth. Of the major team sports I see the most growth in Twenty20 cricket, football, rugby league and netball, with basketball and AFL growing but at a slower place.

Union will struggle to hold its current popularity. Boxing and similar combat sports will continue to decline, with tennis and golf also experiencing a slow decline.

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