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Ok, let’s face it, apart from having the ability to recite almost any statistic in South African cricket, I am very low on the totem pole when it comes to being knowledgeable about the game.
I cannot tell you what a doosra or an arm ball is. I know about the flipper as Shane Warne used it rather expertly and I saw it many times.
I know what a leg spinner is (ball spins from leg to off) and I know what an off spinner is (the opposite), but don’t ask me about a leg break, off break etc.
So now that we have established my credentials, I will attempt to discuss the Proteas’ chances in this World Cup.
Over the past number of years it has become evident that the Proteas are more adept at batting first and defending a score than chasing a score. So I thought it would be interesting to look at the individual players for South Africa to see whether there is a discernible pattern evident in the individual performances of the players.
The Proteas have eight recognised batsmen at the World Cup. I have therefore taken these batsmen’s stats and compared batting first versus batting second performances.
Hashim Amla has scored an average of 59 runs off 63 balls per first innings, and 46 runs per 58 balls faced in the second innings. This is a significant drop in scoring rate, from 93 to 80 and 13 runs less per innings.
Quinton de Kock has scored an average of 51 runs off 58 balls per first innings, and 21 runs per 23 balls faced in the second innings. Although his scoring rate increases slightly, his runs scored per innings drops by 30.
Faf du PLessis has scored an average of 33 runs off 41 balls per first innings, and 37 runs per 40 balls faced in the second innings. In Faf’s case although he faces the same number of balls per innings, he actually increases his scoring rate and therefor his average runs per innings.
AB de Villiers has scored an average of 54 runs off 46 balls per first innings, and 50 runs per 49 balls faced in the second innings. There is a drop in scoring rate, but AB still scores above a run a ball and his runs per innings doesn’t significantly drop.
David Miller has scored an average of 35 runs off 33 balls per first innings, and 14 runs per 18 balls faced in the second innings. This is a drop in scoring rate, but more importantly 21 runs less per innings batting second.
Rillee Rossouw has scored an average of 43 runs off 37 balls per first innings, and 13 runs per 15 balls faced in the second innings. This is a significant drop in scoring rate, as well as a significant drop of 30 runs per innings batting second.
Farhaan Behardien has scored an average of 19 runs off 17 balls per first innings, and 15 runs per 20 balls faced in the second innings.
At this point I am going to dismiss Behardien from the equation as he is the eighth batsman and as he has the lowest numbers.
Individually it might not be that obvious, but when you collate these numbers it shows that if these batsmen batted together in every match for South Africa, then between them they average 306 runs off 315 balls in the first innings.
When you look at their collective runs batting second there is a significant drop to 206 runs off 238 balls.
What it effectively shows you is that these seven batsmen are likely to complete an innings batting first without having to rely on their bowlers to make runs, whereas when batting second, they won’t last 50 overs or 300 balls.
There are three main culprits if you were inclined to look for someone to blame. Quinton de Kock, Rillee Rossouw and David Miller.
Quinton de Kock is in horrible form since his injury and is struggling with confidence. It might be prudent to move him to the number seven position in the batting line up.
He is a natural stroke maker and it could improve the South African batting line up if you move him to where the ball is older, does less and a solid base has already been set by the previous batsmen.
In the case of Rossouw, I would think it is too early to be too concerned about whether he has mental fragility as he has only batted five times in a second innings. His recent form should provide hope that the confidence from his last few innings will carry him through.
Moving Rossouw up the order to bat with Hashim Amla could be the option to replace de Kock.
David Miller is a bit of an enigma in my view, although a very competent finisher he has looked more accomplished and competent when given more time at the crease before having to unleash.
His last few innings showed that he is capable of doing more than just a cameo appearance from a dozen deliveries.
The evidence suggests that these three batsmen lack either the experience or mental fortitude to perform under pressure batting second, and it will be up to each of them to disprove these facts and perform when necessary.
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