Season 2015 is just moments away from starting and I can’t wait. Like all of you, I’m dreaming that this year my boys will get to the last day of the season and win the grand final.
When they do there will be celebrations, parades and I’ll buy the DVD of the match and watch my favourite bits again and again until I melt the disc.
However, the reality is that they won’t win and my grand final day will be spent at a BBQ at a mate’s house drinking beer and discussing just why it was that they didn’t make it. And there are so many things that can go wrong.
So what are the factors that a rugby league team must control or harness in order to prevail on that first weekend in October?
A united team
For mine this is the big one. If your side is focused as a unit on the task at hand and demonstrates unity and dedication then the battle is three quarters won.
If they can maintain a good game plan on the field as well as good discipline off it – mixed with genuine solidarity that extends not just within the first graders but also throughout the whole club – success is far more likely.
More and more clubs are realising the strength of this all encompassing approach and bringing in leadership experts to guide players and coaching staff on how to strengthen their organisation and put them on the path to glory.
In the AFL the Swans famously used to have the “no dickheads” rule that precluded braggarts, egotists and good-time-party-boys from pulling on their jersey.
They were a team first and foremost. If they were to become stars it would be as a unit who worked together to achieve their common goals. This ethos is credited as the primary reason behind them winning the 2005 flag.
The 2012 Storm side surely demonstrated the same workman like solidarity on their way to the premiership. The Manly sides of 2011 and 2008 were also renowned as tight units who fought for each other. The recent player movements seemed to have laid waste to that once mighty band of brothers.
Now we are seeing a couple of clubs actively rebasing their clubs on this kind of ethos and forsaking stars to achieve it.
The Raiders’ sacking of the disreputable yet extremely talented duo of Dugan and Ferguson demonstrated that they knew, even when they desperately needed better results, that those two were a cancer on the unity of the team.
At Penrith Ivan Cleary did the unthinkable and cut loose Coote, Gordon, Lewis and Jennings and – in spite of a cruel injury toll – still took his band of homebrand warriors to within one victory of the grand final just two seasons later. It was an incredible feat.
Should Cleary get his Panthers to the top it will show all the other clubs a clear pathway for future success in the NRL. It will lead to an increasing realisation that – while star players are a handy thing to have in your arsenal – team unity, belonging, focus and dedication are the key ingredients for achieving premiership glory.
No distractions
The last thing that a coach or a team needs are distractions from the task at hand. Things like your star halfback openly touring other clubs in the lead up to the season is something a team can do without.
A number of your players getting charged with drug offences is also a fair blow to a side’s focus.
A star player getting in a stoush over a woman in a nightclub or one engaging in bizarre acts in the latrine can derail a campaign too.
The captain of a side getting accused publicly of white-anting the coach doesn’t make a good recipe for success. A star player getting arrested for sexually assaulting a woman can really put a dampener on proceedings.
Players climbing onto a roof to drink alcopops and giving the coach the bird via instagram can blow a team’s season apart.
Distractions like these can contribute to curtail, impede or wreck a sides cohesion and form. It seems that every season we see a new way for sides to lose their focus and with it their chances for glory.
Recent Grand Final experience.
Going back to 1980 there have only been seven instances where a side has won the Grand Final without having played in a decider within the past 5-6 seasons:
• Brisbane 1992 (St George hadn’t played in a GF since 1985)
• Newcastle 1997 (split competition)
• Melbourne 1999
• Penrith 2003
• Wests Tigers 2005 (The Cowboys also hadn’t played in a GF)
• St George Illawarra 2010 (the Roosters hadn’t played in a GF since 2004)
• South Sydney 2014
As you can see, a number of those occurrences have qualifications. Even without those caveats, it’s only seven from 36. That’s just under 20 per cent. Grand final experience would seem to be a big factor.
Success is mostly not an overnight thing.
A determined and focused pack
It is very hard for a backline to perform well if their forwards aren’t getting good metres. A team’s forward pack must not just hit the ball up aggressively, they must do it all day.
You won’t be surprised to hear that the Rabbitohs were up amongst the leading metre gaining sides in 2014. In 2013 the Roosters pack were right up there too. However, both were also at the bottom end of the missed tackle counts.
So while players like James Gavet and Dave Taylor might be great for making metres, their propensity for missing tackles really hurts their side’s overall chances of premiership glory.
Adventurous and skilled backs
You’ve got to win finals matches. You can’t defend your way to victory, you’ve got to score tries. It is very rare that a side can do a Bradbury and cross the line the winner because their opponent collapsed.
As the Bulldogs showed this year, there is little point in making more metres on average than the Rabbitohs a game if you also score 30 fewer tries. A team must have a backline that has speed, skills, good combinations and is prepared to take a risk.
A strong spine
For as long as I can remember the great teams have all had an excellent Fullback, Half back or 5/8 and Hooker. There have been some very good combinations:
• Slater, Cronk, Smith
• Belcher, Stuart, Walters
• O’Davis, Johns, Buderus
• Stewart, Orford, Ballin
• Taylor, Sterling, Edge
• Hodgson, Prince, Farah
• O’Neill, Langer, Walters
• Potter, Mortimer, Bugden
• Wesser, Gower, Priddis
• Inglis, Reynolds, Luke
• Minichello, Pearce, Friend
While some are arguably stronger than others (the above is a my quick rank order), there is no question that each of these were brilliant and a large part – if not the main reason – that their respective side’s won their titles.
The X-Factor
Another crucial requirement a side must have if they are to win the title is a player – or players – who can make something out of nothing and change the game. Quite simply, the Roosters don’t win in 2013 without Sonny Bill. The Storm don’t win in 2009 without Slater. The Broncos don’t win in 2006 without Hodges. The Wests Tigers don’t win in 2005 without Marshall. Those are just some of the big roles played in deciders. Greg Inglis was a game changer that many times in 2014 to get his boys to the Grand Final. The Eels don’t make the finals, let alone the decider, in 2009 without Hayne. The Bulldogs in 2012 had Ben Barba in large part to thank for their charge to the Grand Final.
Luck
A side can have all of the above things together but if luck doesn’t go their way then it can all fall to pieces.
If Gerard Beale’s knee doesn’t break Darren Lockyer’s cheek bone in 2011 who is to say that the Broncos wouldn’t have gone all the way? If Buderus doesn’t get knocked out in the 2013 preliminary final could Newcastle not have won the title? If Stuart doesn’t break his ankle in 1993 surely the Raiders win the title that year. If Cam Smith doesn’t get suspended in 2008 do Manly still win the Grand Final? What if Todd Byrne beats the Sattler covering tackle in 2003?
And then there are the decisions that go against a side.
If in the 2009 Grand Final Slater is adjudged to have dropped the ball (as I and multitudes of others believe he did cold) – rather than it being called a penalty – do the rampant Eels side not score to win the 2009 premiership? How about those shocking calls against the Storm in the 2006 Grand Final? What about Anthony Mundine bombing a certain try in the 1999 decider? How about Benny Elias hitting the crossbar with his field goal attempt in 1999.
No matter how well you try to control the controllables, luck surely plays a massive part.
A good coach with a good game plan
I can’t think of too many sides that win the flag without having a very good commander at the helm. Not only do they have to be arrogant and strong, they also must be great tacticians, good communicators and excellent motivators. Here is the honour roll from the last ten seasons:
• Michael Maguire
• Trent Robinson
• Craig Bellamy
• Des Hasler
• Wayne Bennett
• Tim Sheens
Each of those men have excellent credentials for leading a side to premiership glory. Each have a reputation for it being their way or the highway, and instilling a sense of team ethos and belonging in their players.
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