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Admiral to fly the Apple Isle flag in Australian Guineas

Roar Guru
6th March, 2015
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Tasmanian three-year-old Admiral ventures north of his home state for the first time to take on the big guns at Flemington in the Australian Guineas.

His trainer, Barry Campbell, from the little apple-producing town of Spreyton just south of Devonport, is no stranger to a good horse, having trained 1996 Caulfield Guineas winner Alfa.

When trained by Barry Alfa won the Royal Sovereign Stakes for two-year-olds at Launceston, before venturing to Victoria and placing in the Sires produce. Subsequent to that he was transferred to legendary trainer Bart Cummings, and the rest is history.

Among 12 other career runs in Tasmania, Admiral also won the Gold Sovereign Stakes, before adding the Tasmanian Sires Produce (again for two-year-olds), and the Tasmanian Guineas for three-year-olds this campaign, in a canter.

At his latest run the boom three-year-old won his first weight-for-age race, defeating Tasmania’s most popular horse The Cleaner.

That was no mean feat given the form that horse displayed last Spring in Melbourne, which included a Group 3 win in the JRA Cup and a Group 1 third in the Emirates handicap. Prior to that The Cleaner had only been 3.5 lengths away in the WFA Championship of Australia, The Cox Plate.

As a dedicated follower of race times, Admiral first came to my attention in January 2014 after winning a two-year-old race at Launceston (blinkers on first time), over 1100m in 1.03.79. That time looked way above average when compared to that of older horses (at different distances) on the same day.

He then put two consecutive wins together (Hobart then Launceston) over 1100m and 1200m, bettering the times of three-year-old horses at the same distance on both occasions. Then followed his win in the Sires produce over 1400m, where he won by 3.5 lengths, his biggest winning margin to date.

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Clearly this was no ordinary two-year-old, given his ability to win races, and run faster time than those more senior.

Campbell also trained his mother, Reunification, who won 12 and placed at 7 of her 28 starts. Barry also trained the dam of Reunification, a Jetball-sired mare named Entally. Admiral has a half brother named Spud’s Pride who hasn’t raced since April last year, but he also has a good strike rate that reads 2-2/5.

It’s a prolific winning family and Admiral has continued that trend.

In a recent article Campbell described Admiral as “bombproof” in regard to being an easy horse to ride, and being very good natured. Campbell also believes his colt should have won 11 of 12 (not 9), and blames himself for at least one of those defeats. Two starts ago he had a 1400m WFA race shot to bits, before being run down late by Streetwise Savoire over 1400m. Given he then accounted for that horse quite easily over 1600m, an educated guess would be that the 28-day break before the 1400m race was largely responsible. He has only won one of four races, with that break or more between runs.

His biggest assets in the Guineas might be his ability to race close to the pace, from an ideal barrier (see historical preview), and having had five runs since December 17 last year. That clearly makes him the fittest runner coming into this race.

I doubt there has ever been a fitter horse coming into this race since its inception in 1986, so his winning prospects are excellent – if he can hold his current form, and cope with the class of opposition he faces.

His effort to beat The Cleaner looks a decent guide to his ability, given only 1 of 3 three-year-olds were able to beat that horse home in the Cox Plate last October, when in receipt of 9.5kg and Admiral was able to inflict a defeat on that horse with only a 4kg advantage 10 days ago.

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He has been stabled at Chris Waller’s Flemington stables since Thursday, and familiarity with his surroundings could also be a very handy asset come race day.

There are no Group 1 winners in this Guineas, so Admiral may well have found the right year to become the first Tasmanian winner. At the current odds available he also represents tremendous value.

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