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Those that run the Reds, the team I have followed since I can remember, have made a fatal decision that has put them on course for disaster.
It was the first fatal decision that cast the die, patient zero, the signing of Richard Graham.
The Reds offered Graham a role to come over and work under Ewen McKenzie in his overarching role as director of coaching with the view of being head coach when McKenzie moved on. The Reds office boasted of having not only a succession plan for life after McKenzie, but a readymade successor.
However, there are stark facts that cannot be ignored in this story.
Graham came over with an extremely poor win-loss record since 2010. Depending on sources, it was roughly 29 Super Rugby games over two years with the Force, and Graham won just nine at 31 per cent.
I have never once, heard any explanation as to why the Reds, who, having recently won the Super Rugby comp, and topped the Australian conference two years running, chose Graham as the next coach.
A man with a 30 per cent win record as head coach, when at the time, you would have to think it would have been a very attractive role for many coaches across the world. Why did they pick Graham? What did they think he would do differently for the Reds?
The minute I heard he was hired as successor, I could see how this was going to go, and it has followed my predicted pathway. So why did the Reds office think it would go any differently? Richard Graham has shown me, an amateur rugby lover, nothing to suggest he has the ability to coach at the top level successfully.
Graham started coaching the Reds full-time last year. In 2014 he had five wins out of 16 games, another 31 per cent record. So far this year, he has dropped his average with one win from four games. And I can’t see it getting better to be honest.
He is still on his 30 per cent win ratio, with arguably a better team than the one he had previously. I would say the Reds are in a worse position now than we were in 2006-07, because at least then the players weren’t current Wallabies. They were mostly up and comers.
It goes without saying that rugby in this country needs to win, and win well to keep relevant. I fear, really fear, that Graham will cost the Reds wins, fans and players the longer he is at the helm. There is no doubt that he will cost them money. And lots of it.
The fatal decision, the patient zero, has also made fatal decisions that are hurting the Reds. At the end of Robbie Deans’ era, it wasn’t even the win-loss ratio that upset me, but the terrible way the Wallabies were playing. We were dour. And so are the Reds right now.
There are no great wins on the horizon for this team. There are close calls, and shaves, and gruelling arm wrestles, but there is no building to something and no incremental improvements incoming.
Playing Nick Frisby at 10 is nothing but a stop gap, yet Graham has done it twice this year, while actively shifting James O’Connor from 10 to 15, and avoiding using Duncan Paia’aua, who can’t be much worse in regards to risk and reward. Could giving the young bloke a game be any more damaging to our game plan? Surely not.
Let’s face it, Frisby is a nine filling in as a prop and 10. So nothing threatening there. Sure if you play the young kid, he might cost a turnover or two, but when the team honestly struggles to play three phases without dropping the ball cold, or losing it in contact, what does it matter to try something? Worried he doesn’t have the experience? What is a coach doing, if not coaching the young bloke to play?
Thinking of shifting James O’Connor from 10? Why not throw that young 21-year-old kid to the wolves and see if he can handle it?
Why does Graham insist on using our smallest forward as our rock hitting up the ball one out, over and over? It is killing me and I am pretty sure it is killing Liam Gill to be used as a battering ram one out from the ruck all game.
Remember last year, when Graham had that great idea to turn Gill into a linkman? It was terrible, with shocking, telegraphed passes, poor runs and poor organisation. Now, we have this. Slowly killing Gill with heavy contact.
Reds forwards have been too slow to the contact area now for two years now, and it isn’t improving. It hasn’t been fixed. Fitness doesn’t seem to have been made a priority as it was at the Tahs last year and this year under Cheika, heralding in a new age of dominance.
I am a big Adam Thomson fan, and he is certainly adding things to the forward pack. He is a better, tighter version of Scott Higginbotham. But when I see him walking dejected after his team is comprehensively beaten around the park all the way back to their try line, I worry that he is thinking ‘Why did I come here’, which could lead to other prospective players saying ‘Why would I go there?’.
To me, it is so obvious that the Reds cannot wait and see whether Graham will turn his team around, because quite frankly, and very honestly, there isn’t the slightest evidence to suggest he will turn it around or is able to turn it around.
Looking at our team play, we are going backwards. We are wasting time keeping Richard Graham coaching at the Reds, which is what upsets me the most.
The Reds need to make the right decision, and cut Graham.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.