The Coolmore Classic is a Group 1 Fillies and Mares race that has been staged since 1973, but has only been known by that name since 1996, when that horse stud became the sponsor.
Emancipation and Sunline, two of Australasia’s greatest mares, have their name on the honour roll, and they carried a massive weight of 60kg when victorious.
In fact the great Sunline carried that weight during both wins in 2000 and 2002. It is definitely the type of race where it is important to do your speed map, and figure out where your horse is going to be placed in the run.
It is almost impossible to win this race off a slow speed if your horse is rearward in the race, especially from a wide barrier.
Conversely, if the tempo is fast, barriers become less important, and the leaderish Rosehill circuit becomes less pronounced. Interestingly half of the last dozen winners hadn’t won beyond 1400m before winning this 1500m race.
That might tell us a little bit more in regard to the moderate tempo that often ensues, and/or the fact that Rosehill, at this distance, is not necessarily a stamina test.
Once again I’m looking at the past 12 years of history to try and target the winner of this year’s’ edition.
– 2014 STEPS IN TIME 6m 57kg (7) 3×2 0kg (1-1-1) $8
– 2013 APPEARANCE 4m 55kg (2) x25 -3.5kg (6-6) $11
– 2012 OFCOURSEICAN 5m 53.5kg (7) x31 -0.5kg (12-11) $13
– 2011 ALOHA 4m 53kg (9) 1×1 -3.5kg (1-4) $6
– 2010 ALVERTA 6m 54.5kg (14) 312 -3.5kg (2-4) $17
– 2009 TYPHOON TRACY 3f 51kg (14) 111 -3.5kg (1-1-1) $4.75
– 2008 ESKIMO QUEEN 4m 56kg (1) x05 -0.5kg (4-5) $21
– 2007 TUESDAY JOY 3f 53kg (5) 2×3 -3kg (13-14) $7.50
– 2006 REGAL CHEER 3f 52.5kg (3) 231 -3kg (4-3) $9
– 2005 DANNI MARTINE 4m 53kg (16) 541 0kg (14-14-14) $17
– 2004 SHAMEKHA 3f 53kg (14) 0x3 -2.5kg (2-2) $17
– 2003 BOLLINGER 3f 53kg (2) x11 -2.5kg (3-2-1) $3.25
Pertinent Statistics;
A. 12/12 did not rise in weight off their last-start performance
B. 8/12 carried 53.5kg or less to win
C. 8/12 dropped in weight from prior start between 2.5kg-3.5kg
D. 10/12 won or placed last start. The only exceptions were Eskimo Queen who won on a bog track that favoured her and Appearance, who was the subject of a stewards inquiry at previous start. Six were last-start winners.
E. 9/12 either three or four years of age
F. 8/12 were positioned in first four horses early in the race.
G. 8/12 drew barriers 1-9. three of the four that drew wide, either led, or positioned in first four early. The other (Danni Martine) settled back near last in a fast run race.
H. 9/12 were up in distance no more than 200m. 10/12 within 200m of this distance last start.
I. 6/12 came out of a 1400m race at Warwick Farm at prior start. 7/12 ran at W/Farm last start. 2/12 came from a 1400m race at Flemington (Aloha andamp; Typhoon Tracy)
J. Average winning price $10.40
Prerequisites
We are preferably looking for a three or four-year-old mare, carrying 53.5kg or less, dropping in weight, that can position on the lead, or just behind the pace early. Best to be drawn in close, and coming off a win or a placing last start, preferably at Warwick Farm.
Tempo
As mentioned in the introduction this can be important and is worth a closer look. In my opinion there are only two outright leaders in the race (Thump and Tarloshan), so it would seem a moderate pace is very likely and midfield/backmarker types are going to be disadvantaged.
If you are drawn 10 or outside it might be paramount to employ positive tactics early. Those that haven’t won at or beyond this distance yet shouldn’t be ignored.
Summary
My first realisation is that there isn’t a 100 per cent perfect historical role model going around this year, but we have plenty of prerequisites to work with, leading us to some value hopes with a serious chance of winning. These appear to be the main ‘historical’ contenders.
#3 TINTO
Comes off an unplaced run last start, but on the positive side it was an eye-catching run after missing the start and getting back too far in the race.
She is a four-year-old mare that drops 3kg and is drawn perfectly.
The negative is she tends to get too far back in her races, so the jockey needs to be acutely aware of the lack of pace evident in this race, and to get her out of the barriers quickly, and ride her positively.
She is a serious hope if all of that transpires. Interesting that 2008 winner Eskimo Queen won the Queensland Oaks the previous winter, as has this mare. The form out of that race is very good.
#4 FIRST SEAL
Is a pronounced odds on favourite, and while I don’t want to ‘knock’ her too much she isn’t a great historical fit for this race. She is a three-year-old, which is great, but the five of that age to have won this race in the past 12 years, carried no more than 53.5kg.
She has 55.5kg. She tends to get back midfield and her barrier draw of 11 isn’t going to do her any favours. On the positive side she comes off a big win last start and does drop a little in weight. She might be too classy for them but at odds on I’ll be looking on.
#6 THUMP
Goes up 300m in distance, much like last year’s winner Steps In Time. Like that mare she has won at 1400m, and likes to lead. She might have found a race where she can dictate from up on the pace.
Unlike Steps In Time she failed to place last start though, and is a bit younger at four years of age (good historically). She rarely runs two races alike, but that might be a positive for her coming into this race given her last effort. If Tarloshan wasn’t running I would be quite keen on her chances, but she still has some hope at a double figure price.
#7 PLUCKY BELLE
Gets back in her races, and probably needs a fast tempo to be able to win, unless a chance of tactics is employed from a good barrier.
She isn’t quite the right age at six but has a lot going for her otherwise. She drops 2kg in weight and comes off a very good placing last start. She is yet to win beyond 1400m but that isn’t a necessity. She is a decent chance at a double figure quote.
#8 AMICUS
Looks more like the type of three-year-old to win the race (compared with First Seal) given her weight, barrier, and ability to race near the pace. Handy too that she is a Group 1 winner already (Most recent three-year-old’s haven’t been).
It’s a pity she didn’t run a placing last start, but she was only half a length from doing so, and perhaps a little bit of give in the track wasn’t suitable.
She meets First Seal 3kg better for that 4.5L defeat, so she has a hope of turning the tables. Big odds and probably a little underrated in the market given her historical positives.
#9 MAHARA
This horse probably has the most historical positives of any other runner. The only negative is her age of five and she does need to be ridden a little more positively than she has been from a good barrier.
She has won from close to the pace on two occasions in the past so no reason she can’t do so here. She drops 4kg off a placing last start at Warwick Farm over 1400m which is close to the perfect preparation for this. She is the one to beat historically.
#11 TARLOSHAN
Worthy of consideration if the weather changes and the track is rain affected. She could do an ‘Eskimo Queen’ if that happens, reversing an unplaced effort at the prior start. Coincidentally she has drawn barrier 1 as that mare did.
One of two leaders in the race, she drops 3.5kg in weight but isn’t the perfect age at five. Only if wet!
#12 ADRIFT
She’s a three-year-old filly trained by Gai Waterhouse and for that reason can’t be left out entirely.
She has a similar profile to Amicus in this race, having finished a length or so behind that mare in the First Seal race last start. She got too far back in that off a slow beginning, but had beaten First Seal at her previous start when racing near the pace.
You can bet that there will be a determination from the stable to not let that happen again from a perfect barrier in this. Problem is she has missed the start at every run she has had, except the first up effort, when winning two starts ago. Any hope she has probably depends on a good getaway.
Conclusion
1. MAHARA has more going for her than any other runner in the race on a historical basis. She never runs a bad race, and looks a very nice Each Way bet, from a good barrier, and stepping up to an ideal distance. And she is probably going to start at around the average winning odds in this race.
2. TINTO is class act and just needs to be ridden positively to be a major winning hope in this. Her form is first class and she is an ultra reliable mare that is very versatile in regard to putting herself in the right spot if required.
3. AMICUS looks the best roughie given her age, trainer and on pace ability from a good barrier.
Those who can’t see FIRST SEAL getting beat might be wise to factor in these three horses in Trifectas and First 4’s, and be aware of the lack of pace in the race to also consider THUMP, and if wet TARLOSHAN, given they appear to be the only leaders. ADRIFT could also be a big improver, and a definite place chance with a good getaway.
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