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Roar Racing: Expert picks for Super Saturday

Warrick Farm racing at its finest. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Roar Guru
13th March, 2015
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It’s getting tight at the top as we head into round three of the Roar Racing autumn expert challenge!

There was just one top selection win last week with Wandjina getting the chocolates for me in the Australian Guineas.

We managed to each have a boxed trifecta in the Randwick Guineas and Cosmic Endeavour won the Canterbury Stakes but was picked in fourth by both Cam and Adam.

So here is how the ladder looks after three rounds.
Cam – 13
Adam – 13
Brent – 12

First up we have a look at a cracking edition of the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m), here is Roar Expert Cam Rose’s thoughts on the race.

Full Newmarket Handicap and Australian Cup preview

“Lankan Rupee is the defending champion and last-start Lighting Stakes winner, confirming his love for the Flemington straight.

Oh, and he’s also rated the world’s best sprinter.

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Many suspected that he wasn’t quite at his best in the Melbourne spring, despite a string of gallant performances culminating in a third, beaten less than a length in the Darley Classic, behind two of his Newmarket rivals.

If there were any doubts about whether his best was behind him after that campaign, they were blown out of the water by his sizzling Lightning Stakes performance, where he burst the Deep Field bubble in the most emphatic style possible.

Terravista won that Darley Classic, giving both Lankan Rupee and Chautauqua a start and a beating, confirming his status as a powerhouse sprinter in his own right.

He’s arguably the most versatile of the big guns, in that he can sit forward or back, and still reel off dizzyingly fast sectionals when asked to go.

Chautauqua is the favourite after dazzling all observers with his straight form in the spring.

He bolted in both the Bobbie Lewis and Gilgai Stakes against a batch of hardened sprinters before just failing in the Darley Classic when taking on the best of the best.

Chautauqua won in eye-catching style first-up, winning by a bare margin after being in some trouble early in the straight, but doing so with authority. He is best suited at the weights of the big three under the handicap conditions after their Darley Classic match-up.

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The best part is that they’re all geldings, and we can only hope they stay sound and continuing to meet year after year over the next half-decade.

All three have to defy some sort of historical precedent in order to salute.

Terravista is trying to become the first horse in 100 years to win first-up. Lankan Rupee has to carry a record-equalling weight and become the first back-to-back winner in 30 years. It’s been over a decade for a non-three year old to win the Newmarket as their first Group 1, as Chautauqua is attempting to do.

Brazen Beau is the only other chance in the race, and has undeniable claims of his own as winner of the Group 1 Coolmore Classic down the straight on Derby day, with big margins to a lot of good three-year-olds behind him.

>> Coolmore Classic: Can history give us a winner?
>> Coolmore Classic preview

He receives 3.5kg off Lankan Rupee for his first-up defeat in the Lightning, and will relish the extra furlong at his disposal.

Delectation and Waterman’s Bay are the best of the rest, and could find their way into a trifecta if all the breaks go their way and one or two of the others strike bad luck.

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Fans of any of the main four will be loving the price they’re getting currently, and you can make a genuine case for each. Lankan Rupee will be ahead of the others in the run, and the way he accelerated first-up, the others might have to break the sound barrier to get past him.”

Cam Rose Selections: 1. Lankan Rupee 2. Terravista 3. Chautauqua 4. Brazen Beau

Adam is of a different opinion placing Chataqua on top, but also thinks Brazen Beau at weights and with some Joao Moreira factor comes into the race.

Adam Page Selections: 1. Chataqua 2. Lankan Rupee 3. Terravista 4. Brazen Beau

I myself have been a big follower of Terravista and was super impressed with his Darley win in the spring. Joe Pride has been talking up a big game on social media and one thinks he wouldn’t be doing it without having Terravista in top form.

Brent Ford Selections: 1. Terravista 2. Lankan Rupee 3. Chataqua 4. Brazen Beau

So as you can see we are pretty set on our first four in the race, but each have a different runner from the ‘Big Three’ as our top selection.

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Next we look at the second Group 1 of the afternoon at Flemington the Australian Cup (2000m).

Here is Roar Guru Adam Page’s view on the race.

“It’s been a few years since we have seen a horse as consistent at the Flemington 2000m as Happy Trails. No matter what the race, what gate or what odds, he just loves it.

Turnbull Stakes and Mackinnon Stakes winner over the track/distance in recent times, and his last start effort in the Peter Young Stakes (1800m) was a beautiful tune up for this. Clearly the horse to beat.

It might not be the Melbourne Cup, but gee it’d be great to see Red Cadeaux get a big win at Flemington. He is being aimed towards the Championships, so I am sure whatever he does here he will improve on, but come race day at Flemington he always finds his best. He will get back, but he will be storming home late.

The ‘Lion Of Longford’, The Cleaner, went at his usual strong tempo in front first up on Launceston Cup Day in the George Adams Stakes (1600m) but couldn’t quite hold off crack local three-year-old Admiral, who ran a beauty last week in the Guineas, so don’t worry about it being Tassie form.

This horse will roll along in front, go for home 700m out and look to break their hearts. Can he hold on to win? Not sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me.”

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Adam Page Selections: 1. Happy Trails 2. Red Cadeaux 3. The Cleaner 4. Protectionist

Following the same thought lines Cam Rose points out there are four Flemington open Group 1s between the 1600m-2000m range each year, and Happy Trails has won three of them.

He says Foreteller is a third up specialist and is underrated at value odds, his selections are as follows.

Cam Rose Selections: 1. Happy Trails 2. Foreteller 3. Mourinho 4. The Cleaner

I’m following the same thought lines as Cam in fact my first four is the exact same.

Brent Ford Selections: 1. Happy Trails 2. Foreteller 3. Mourinho 4. The Cleaner

Moving across to Rosehill we have the other Group 1 for the day. The Group 1 Coolmore Classic (1500m).

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Here is my take on the race.

“First Seal is going to come into this race at super short odds and hasn’t missed the quinella in her last nine races. She comes into this race following a super win against Supara. The only worries here we might have are barrier 11.

Dear Demi is solid second up and could be big overs at the current quote of $21. Worth noting though she has finished 11th in her last two Coolmores.

Plucky Belle pushed Catkins to within half a length last start and I believe she is the best chance of knocking off First Seal. Has solid form first up and $10 is value.

Happy to throw in Mahara, she finished behind Cosmic Endeavour and Danesiri and gets a nice weight relief on that effort. Is almost perfect second up and is at great odds of $11.

Amicus could get a minor spot, gets some big weight swing towards First Seal but has to make up 4.3 lengths from last time out.”

Brent Ford Selections: 1. First Seal 2. Plucky Belle 3. Mahara 4. Dear Demi

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All of us seem to agree that First Seal will be hard to beat but our first fours are different. Cam and I both have Plucky Belle to finish in behind the talented filly First Seal.

While Adam has gone for a cheeky run from Queensland Mare Tinto.

Cam Rose Selections: 1. First Seal 2. Plucky Belle 3. Dear Demi 4. Arabian Gold

Adam Page Selections:
1. First Seal 2. Tinto 3. Thump 4. Mahara

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