- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Super Rugby is five weeks into the season, which feels like a good time to hand down the first judgements.
As in recent years, I’m running three relatively simple categories: the teams going about as well (or as ordinary) as I expected them to, and then the over- and under-achievers.
Most of these ratings are based on my loose pre-season predictions from early February.
The ‘as expected’ teams
I’ll get the easy ones out of the way first.
I had the Chiefs and Brumbies finishing in the top six, and the Bulls too, and after five rounds, the Brumbies lead the comp overall, the Chiefs sit fourth (but third on points), and the Bulls are currently outside the six by a solitary point.
The Bulls are hot and cold, but are showing me enough to remain confident in my guestimations; the Brumbies and Chiefs’ class has been evident from the opening weekend of the season.
The Crusaders were also in my top six, and their display against the Lions on the weekend showed that with the cavalry returning, things are starting to click. They’re currently fourth in New Zealand, but they’ll improve over the rest of the season.
The Force had me worried at the start of the season, and nothing yet has eased that for me. Back in February, I said that their young backrowers would have to play out of their skins to compete, and then they’d still have to find points. Well, Ben McCalman has been superb thus far, but he’s been the Lone Ranger. And while they sit mid-table in terms of tries scored, no team has conceded more. Not even the Reds. They still worry me.
The Cheetahs have had the odd moment, but are giving inconsistency a bad name. The Blues’ have the equal most bonus points in the competition, but they remain none from five and the bye will fancy its chances against them this weekend coming.
The over-achievers
I started the season by saying I wouldn’t back the Stormers “with someone else’s money”. I had them finishing behind the Lions in the South African conference, because I just couldn’t see how the Stormers would trouble anyone, let alone find points.
Well, didn’t I get that wrong! The Stormers-Chiefs game on Sunday morning was, for 60 minutes, just about the match of the season – just as much for the way the Stormers were able to find space through the Chiefs, as for the way the Chiefs got themselves back into the game and eventually, into the lead.
I now can’t see why the Stormers can’t finish in the top two in South Africa; I like the look of them a whole lot better than the Sharks, who I’ll come to shortly.
I had the Hurricanes pegged as the pre-season surprise packets, so tick that box. I just had a feeling – as many people would have – that if the Hurricanes could deliver in the forwards, their backs are as good as any in the competition. There’s no reason why they can’t carry on from here.
The Highlanders didn’t feature in any pre-season predictions, but I saw no reason why they couldn’t sneak into the playoffs just as they did last season. Toppling the Chiefs in Hamilton brought some recognition, but their last-hour demolition of the Waratahs in Dunedin on Saturday has really got them noticed, particularly in Australia. When given the chance to counter-attack, there are few teams more devastating.
The Rebels are a funny one. I expected great improvement, but because I also expected the Force to be there or thereabouts, and the Reds to even sneak into third, I had the Rebels coming fifth in Australia. They’re two and two after the first month, but are defending better, competing better at the breakdown, and look a whole lot more threatening in attack than in 2014.
They might be the biggest beneficiaries in the Australian conference of last year’s NRC, and good luck to them. I hope they can push on from here; they should be aiming for a playoffs berth.
The under-achievers
As I mentioned, I expected the Reds to run around mid-table, and even that if Bill Pulver’s dream of three Australian teams on the finals was to come true, it might be the Reds sneaking into sixth spot.
No, I don’t know what I was thinking, and no, I’m not sure where their next win comes from.
There’s been talk since even before Saturday night that there could be upwards of seven players back for the Lions in Round 7, but what if nothing changes? Can we really rule it out?
Currently the Lions have scored one less try, but the Reds’ points for tally is 23 points fewer than the Lions, and like their overall differential, is the worst in the competition.
The Lions were another team I expected to run mid-table, and though they showed glimpses beating the Blues, they weren’t great against the Crusaders. Hard to see how they get out off the bottom few from here.
The two biggest underachievers, therefore, have been the Waratahs and Sharks. I had both finishing top six, and while the Sharks are even sixth currently, and the Tahs eighth, neither have been convincing.
Both lost games they shouldn’t have in Round 1, both bounced back with wins as they should have in Round 2, and both have been up and down since then. And that’s not to say their season is over, of course.
The Sharks put four tries past the Cheetahs on Saturday night, but do we read much into that? They got the win, a bonus point even, but they’re still a long way off their best. They have a really helpful draw this season, don’t leave the republic until mid-May, and two-and-three feels like a wasted start.
The Waratahs are similarly a long way from their best, probably a combination of other teams catching them and a rather slow start.
The last two weeks tell their story: they couldn’t find four tries against a Reds team they really should’ve beaten by 20 or 30, and then after getting out to 12-0 against the Highlanders found themselves playing into the counter-attacking hands of the southerners. Literally, in Israel Folau’s case.
Their scrum is having mixed results, while their lineout ranks ninth for effectiveness. And after conceding only 1.5 tries per regular season game last year, they must be concerned about leaking 3.5 tries a game for the first month of 2015.
Much improvement is required.