Nearly three weeks has passed since my original article, and we are on the cusp of the two year od grand final, the Golden Slipper, to be run at Rosehill next Saturday.
Both Exosphere and English delivered pleasing results winning in Sydney, coming from two fairly obscure races at Kembla Grange.
Results less pleasing were Fontiton and Stoker, who were relatively poor in the Blue Diamond, the showcase event for two-year-old’s in Melbourne on February 28.
The former was found to be lame, and had to have bone chips removed from a joint so it’s worth excusing her.
Stoker was disappointing, and perhaps the 1200m was beyond him, with his best time recorded over 1000m. Quite pertinent too, that his form prior, when placed behind Headwater, hasn’t really stood up with that horse failing in the Todman Stakes behind the much vaunted Vancouver.
Overall the Blue Diamond was disappointing considering the times. The 1:10.53 time recorded didn’t compare favourably to the 1:09.87 that Earthquake posted last year when winning the same race.
It’s hard to compare times on different days a year apart, but given the Oakleigh Plate was run half a second faster this year, than last (Lankan Rupee), I think it is fair to say that Earthquake was classier (at the same stage) than this year’s winner Pride Of Dubai.
Pride of Dubai isn’t entered for the Golden Slipper, and it’s doubtful that anything behind him in that race is fast enough to win this year.
Another two horses I mentioned in the original article were Fireworks and Holler. The former went on to run third to English at Randwick. At her previous run she beat Lake Geneva, who ran third in the Blue Diamond.
While Lake Geneva is very capable, it’s doubtful she can win the Golden Slipper this year, and neither can Fireworks.
Holler, who beat Fireworks by two lengths in January (somewhat luckily perhaps) is yet to start again, and not sure what has happened to him, because he isn’t a Golden Slipper entry.
The horse that has really stood up to be counted in the past two weeks is Vancouver. His time of 1:08.83 over 1200m at Randwick in the Todman Stakes bordered on amazing, and a major step up from his winning times at his previous two starts.
He didn’t actually beat the time of the older mares in the following race (at the same distance), but he wasn’t far behind, and his last 600m was superior. The most impressive part of his win was the vastly superior time to that which was recorded by the filly English two races earlier.
She is a good filly, but he ran 1.36 seconds faster than she did, which is roughly seven lengths faster. And his last 600m was .59 of a second superior.
Headwater got trapped wide during the race in the Todman, but he just couldn’t compete with Vancouver, simply because that horse is so much faster. On this effort Vancouver is certainly the one to beat in the Golden Slipper, if he gets ordinary luck, and gets track conditions to suit (preferably dry).
Second placed Furnaces was 3.5L in arrears, but managed to record a time of 1.09.40. At this stage he may well be a good place bet in the Golden Slipper, and he is at a value price.
Exosphere is currently the second favourite, and he won with something in hand in the Skyline Stakes at Warwick Farm two weeks ago.
His racing pattern will be suited to a fast run Golden Slipper, which is the case more often than not. His overall time was slightly quicker than the Fillies division (Sweet Embrace Stakes) won by Always Alison on the same day, and his last 600m was half a second quicker.
He couldn’t quite match it with BM80 winner Press Report though, albeit the track had dried out a little for that race, later in the day. The horse Exosphere beat into second place was Odyssey Moon. It only managed a 1L third in the Pago Pago Stakes last Saturday.
Neither it or the Magic Night Stakes for Fillies set the world on fire from a times perspective (both recorded similar), and the one length that Odyssey Moon was beaten suggests that both races are some three lengths (half a second) inferior to the Skyline Stakes won by Exosphere.
What might give Exospheres’ followers further hope is the fact that he beat a colt called Wolf Cry by six lengths in the Skyline Stakes at Warwick Farm.
Wolf Cry actually finished 2.5 lengths astern of Vancouver on debut, then finished alongside Furnaces a start later, when placed behind Haptic at Randwick over 1100m on February 14.
At it’s next start, Furnaces was beaten 3.5 lengths in the Todman Stakes by Vancouver, which might suggest that Exosphere is a 2.5 lengths superior colt to Vancouver.
You can do the same exercise with a horse called Sebring Star, who was 7L astern of Exopshere in the Skyline, and marginally behind Wolf Cry and Furnaces one start earlier.
It might also suggest that Vancouver has only improved a length between his debut win, and his win in the Todman, despite that amazing time last start. Could Exosphere have posted a much faster time in the Skyline than he actually did?
Another interesting entry is Haptic (mentioned re Wolf Cry and Furnaces), who is unbeaten in two starts. He has a victory over Furnaces, and also won a recent barrier trial by three lengths.
That form lines up quite well, and gives him a definite place chance in the Golden Slipper, but still leaves him two or three lengths short of the class required to win
Summing up, what we can say is that the Colts look vastly superior to the Fillies this season.
That is a remarkable turnaround from last year, because the Fillies filled the first seven placings in the Golden Slipper.
Times leading in last year suggested a female dominance, but that was an almost unbelievable outcome. It does seem that both Vancouver and Exosphere have their opposition covered in 2015, but it’s a little unclear as to who is the best colt of the two.
Track conditions, and/or barrier draws, as well as luck in running may also have a major say in the outcome.
It’s going to be an exciting race, and I’ll be content as long as the fastest horse wins!
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