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Rosey's 2015 AFL preview: Geelong Cats

17th March, 2015
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17th March, 2015
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When they write the book on this never-ending era of the Geelong Football Club, it will be titled ‘The Perennial Contenders’.

Most people think of Geelong’s run at the top starting in 2007 when they decimated all-comers on the way to the flag, but it’s easy to forget they were semi-finalists in 2005, and lost a preliminary final to Brisbane, by only nine points, in 2004.

Only three surviving Cats from that final against the Lions will suit up for Geelong in 2015 – Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright and Steve Johnson. Two more will be playing for another club – Gary Ablett and Paul Chapman. Yeah, there’s a few playing honours among that group!

In fact, that prelim was so long ago that 11 of Brisbane’s 22 that night played 100 per cent of game-time, unheard of a decade later. If we look at Geelong vs Brisbane in Round 23 last year, not one player on either side was on the field for the entire duration of the game.

Check out the rest of Rosey’s AFL preview series here.

The AFL is expressly set up so that no team should be up the top for so long, so Geelong’s has been an astounding achievement.

Let’s have a look at the side they’ll be using in their attempt to stay up there for at least another season longer:

B: B.Smedts T.Lonergan J.Rivers
HB: C.Enright H.Taylor A.Mackie
C: J.Kelly J.Selwood M.Duncan
HF: J.Bartel T.Hawkins S.Motlop
F: S.Johnson M.Clark J.Murdoch
Foll: H.McIntosh J.Caddy M.Stokes
Int: M.Blicavs G.Horlin-Smith C.Guthrie N.Cockatoo
Em: D.Simpson R.Stanley J.Thurlow

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Joel Selwood, inspirational champion that he is, was asked to carry far too much midfield load in 2014, especially in regards to the hard stuff. Selwood had 121 more contested possessions across the season than his nearest teammate, the biggest gap in the league for any club between their first and second ranked player in this stat.

Coach Chris Scott has addressed this imbalance in the off-season, informing us that veterans Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly will spend more time in the middle than they did last year. They’ll be welcome additions, but along with Matthew Stokes and Steve Johnson, they’ll be forming a ‘dad’s army’ of sorts.

Josh Caddy, if he can replicate his impressive back end to the season, will provide the youthful grunt, Cam Guthrie has potential but gets the shut-down jobs for now, while the class and magic of Steven Motlop will be needed through the middle more than ever before.

The hidden gem of the Geelong midfield is Mitch Duncan, a genuine footballer with the coolest of heads who stands out with his poise and decision-making. If he doesn’t become a star of the competition in the next year or two, he’s under-delivered.

The ruck position has been in a constant state of flux for the Cats since the retirement of Brad Ottens after the 2011 flag. In the three years since, they’ve had Dawson Simpson, Orren Stephenson, Nathan Vardy, Trent West, Mark Blicavs and Hamish McIntosh all record more than 100 hit outs in an individual season without ever establishing a permanent continuity.

It might be time to commit to the running man Blicavs as the number one ruckman, and use his ground coverage as the main strength, with support from new recruit Mitch Clark.

As it stands, Clark will work in tandem with Tom Hawkins in the front half of the ground.

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We know what a powerful presence Hawkins is inside fifty, particularly when left wrestling one-out with a defender or leading at the kicker with hands extended. Clark is strong when jumping at the ball and taking it at the top, but his secret weapon is that he’s equally adept once the ball hits the ground.

If Clark stays fit and plays the vast majority of games, he and Hawkins will form the most feared key forward duo in the league. There’s a strong possibility of 50 or 60 goals from each.

There is no obvious stay-at-home crumbing forward, so the resting midfielders will need to impact the scoreboard, much as they did last year for the Cats. The x-factor will be Daniel Menzel, if we ever see him again.

The Geelong defence isn’t as feared as it once was, ranking ninth and seventh in points against in two of the last three years. Still, heads don’t come much older or wiser than Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie and Jared Rivers, at an average age of 31 and with almost 1000 matches between them. A wheelchair will be stationed back there at various times.

But they are in desperate need of generational change down back. Billie Smedts will likely get the chance to cement a spot down there, and it would be good to see some younger running players rotate through half-back as well.

The Cats have a number of youth on their list that are either untested or have had limited exposure, but it would be rare if master recruiter Stephen Wells hadn’t unearthed a gem among them.

The loss of Allen Christensen denies them something they don’t have enough of, Travis Varcoe has gone to Collingwood, while off-loading Taylor Hunt eats into their depth as well.

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It’s been well documented how many close games Geelong won last season, without losing any. Surely it’s unsustainable for Joel Selwood to keep performing heroics to pull them out of the fire.

Their draw in the first part of the season can be described somewhere between tough and tricky. If they spend any extended time behind square of the ledger, the critics will be lining up to write them off. But then again, the critics have been doing that for years. Eventually they’ll get it right. Right?

The Cats have seemingly mastered the art of simultaneous regeneration and contending, but the slightest cracks might just be appearing. The recruiting of Rhys Stanley and Sam Blease are signs of this, although Stanley may have something to offer.

Geelong probably has too many reliable senior core to drop out of the eight, even if they have been up longer than Stonehenge. Their key forwards will win some games on their own. The defence is solid, but lacking dynamism, and will get exposed by quicker teams throughout the year.

Predicted ladder spread: fifth – ninth

Predicted finish: seventh

Rosey’s ladder
7th – Geelong
8th – Richmond
9th – Essendon
10th – Brisbane
11th – Adelaide
12th – Collingwood
13th – Greater Western Sydney
14th – West Coast
15th – Carlton
16th – Melbourne
17th – Western Bulldogs
18th – St Kilda

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