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Long dependent on spin to befuddle the Aussies, Pakistan’s hopes of upsetting the World Cup hosts on Friday rest on their potent pace attack.
Pakistan’s few successes against Australia in the post-Wasim-and-Waqar era have been largely built around deceptive spin-bowling.
However, at this tournament they have leaned upon pace for the first time in a long time. With trump card tweakers Saeed Ajmal and Mohammad Hafeez not involved in this World Cup, Pakistan’s fast men have flourished.
Remarkably, only 6 of their 47 wickets at this World Cup have been claimed by spinners. Pacemen Wahab Riaz (14 wickets at 22), Sohail Khan (11 wickets at 28), Mohammad Irfan (8 wickets at 23) and Rahat Ali (7 wickets at 22) have all been prolific.
Irfan was yesterday ruled out of the remainder of the tournament with a fractured pelvis. But the remaining three quicks should form the nucleus of Pakistan’s attack against Australia, with spin support from Shahid Afridi and Haris Sohail. Pakistan may even field a fourth specialist quick with Irfan’s injury opening the door for young right-armer Ehsan Adil.
Pakistan’s quicks offer the side a blend of swing, extreme pace, canny variations, and pure intimidation. They are not just a skilful group, but a fearsome one.
Wahab has a supple wrist which allows him to swing the ball both ways and matches Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins for speed, having clocked 150kmh repeatedly in this World Cup.
Sohail and Rahat are only a smidgeon slower, both having hit 145kmh in Pakistan’s last match against Ireland.
Pakistan’s best avenue to victory may be through Australia’s openers, David Warner and Aaron Finch. Both have a big ton to their names this tournament but not much else. They have yet to set Australia a really good platform, with their best partnership for the World Cup a 57-run stand in the opening match against England.
Pakistan’s quicks will feel confident they can get an early look at first drop Steve Smith and perhaps even skipper Michael Clarke.
The success of their pacemen at this tournament has been pivotal, given Pakistan do not have the kind of batting talent possessed by Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka or India. If Pakistan are to cause an upset against Australia it will very likely be their bowlers, not their batsmen, who engineer such a triumph.
While their batting line-up is far from feeble, they do not have the ability to pile up 330-plus batting first against Australia’s potent bowling attack, nor to chase down such a score.
The main hurdle the Pakistan players must clear is a mental one. Australia have utterly dominated Pakistan in ODIs in recent years, regardless of the venue or the state of the pitch. Over the past five years, Australia have a 14-3 win-loss record against Pakistan in 50-over cricket. What’s more, half of those victories were comprehensive.
Most recently, Australia thumped them 3-0 in the UAE. That series was extremely low scoring by modern ODI standards, with 250 passed just once among the six team innings. It was played on low, slow UAE wickets on which no batsmen ever looked fully set. Those surfaces could scarcely be more different to the hard, true decks which have fostered remarkable runfests during this World Cup.
The Adelaide surface has been rock hard this tournament, prompting young Aussie speedster Cummins this week to label it the quickest deck he’d played on this year.
Australia look certain to load up on quicks, with all-rounder Glenn Maxwell the main spinner alongside Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc, James Faulkner and one of Cummins or Josh Hazlewood.
Batsmen have dominated this tournament and may do so again in this match. However, both sides are betting heavily on pace to propel them into the semi-finals.