For the first time in a long time, Sydney will have a race day to challenge Derby Day at Flemington when it comes to equine and race quality.
There are nine races set down, including five Group l races, highlighted by the best two-year-old race in the world, the $3.5 million Golden Slipper (1200m), where the Gai Waterhouse-trained Vancouver dominates betting.
Yours truly is sitting pretty at $15 and $6 for this race with Vancouver, and I dare say I won’t be standing too far away from the queue, because he just looks so much better.
The doubters were heavy on him after his first barrier trial this time in, but the blinkers went on and he was outstanding in the Canonbury Stakes (1100m), then trialled brilliantly before producing one of the best Slipper lead-up wins in recent history, spanking his rivals in the Todman Stakes (1200m).
I honestly think he is a $2 chance, so what you’re getting at the moment looks overs.
The other dominant Slipper lead up winner was Exosphere, who produced a stunning turn of foot to win the Skyline Stakes (1200m) at Warwick Farm, coming from last on the turn and picking up his rivals in a couple of strides. He did race against inferior opposition to that of the Todman runners Vancouver smashed up, but the ability is there with Exosphere, and like Vancouver, he is versatile and will be very strong at the end of 1200m.
Lake Geneva ran an absolute beauty in the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) when a close-up third to Pride Of Dubai after getting back and held up at various stages in the race. She is the one with upside and is in the right stable. Only query is that maiden gallopers don’t win Slippers. The lone horse to break their maiden in the great race was Sweet Embrace in 1967.
Selections
Vancouver (1) clearly on top, ahead of Exosphere (5), Lake Geneva (14) and Furnaces (13).
A star-studded bunch of weight-for-age gallopers will do battle 40 minutes later in the $1 million Group l George Ryder Stakes (1500m).
There doesn’t seem to be much early speed here, so on that reason, I will go with Cosmic Endeavour. She probably wasn’t the best horse in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m), but clearly the best ride won her the race. She takes on a pretty similar field here, I expect her to lead again, and I expect her to prove very hard to run down again.
Shooting To Win is a star, and has been excellent in two runs back from a break. He looked in need of the run when a close up fourth in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) before going to the Randwick Guineas (1600m) and attempting to lead all the way but was grabbed late when third to Hallowed Crown, who was his victor in the Hobartville also. Shooting To Win is a horse that needs racing, and best ridden with cover and a sit. Tying that in with the fact he gets a weight pull here, he will be a definite threat.
Criterion was clearly the best of the beaten brigade in the Canterbury Stakes when third to Cosmic Endeavour after he settled back near the inside before railing up strongly in the straight and working home hard late to be beaten just under two lengths. He used to be trained here, and he does have a fabulous record here, as well as racing second-up.
Selections
Sticking with Cosmic Endeavour (11), ahead of Shooting To Win (13), Criterion (2) and Kermadec (14), who looks the main three-year-old heading towards the Doncaster, so I’ll be keen to see how he performs.
Before the Slipper, the speedsters will do battle for Group l glory in the $400,000 Galaxy (1100m).
I am going to put Avoid Lightning on top. She resumed in the Millie Fox Stakes (1300m) and ran third to subsequent Group l placegetter Catkins, where, due to circumstances out of control of Tim Clark, she was ridden a touch too close to the speed, and she had nothing left for the final 150m, which is generally her best part of a race. Trial prior was outstanding, great second up record, great 1100m record and loves Rosehill. She ticks the boxes.
Given her great record at Group l level without winning, Sweet Idea looks the weighted horse to win. She was excellent during the Spring, winning the Tristarc Stakes (1400m) at Group 2 level with strong Group 1 performances behind Dissident, Trust In A Gust and Bonaria sandwiched in between. First trial leading up to her return to racing was good, while the second one was just OK, but with the Waterhouse ‘bone and muscle’, she’ll be primed for a Group 1 resumption.
Knoydart was having his first run since the Stradbroke last year when running on strongly late to run fourth to Miracles Of Life in the Challenge Stakes (1000m). He was going to go past Rubick near the line, but given it was his first run in nine months, and the hot speed in front, he just got a stitch late. Exceptional second up stats, as well as great records at the track and at 1100m, and he will get the hot speed in front again, so he is a serious prospect.
Selections
Going with Avoid Lightning (6), to beat home Sweet Idea (4), Knoydart (7) and Fast ‘N’ Rocking (10).
A small but classy field has been assembled for the $500,000 Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m).
I’m keen on Sweynesse. He was a touch unlucky in the Randwick Guineas (1600m) behind Hallowed Crown given that it probably wasn’t the best ride when he got stuck in a pocket and was forced back to the inside, which wasn’t the best place to be. His last 2000m run saw him finish two lengths off Adelaide in the Cox Plate, and he looks ready to rumble over 2000m now. Beautifully placed.
Hallowed Crown might not be the best horse in the race, but the one trait I love about him is that he is a winner. The great horses in recent times just knew where the winning post is, and this bloke does exactly too, as was evident in the Randwick Guineas. He looked beaten 300m out, but he just kept finding and surged past his rivals to win impressively. 2000m is the query, but he is all class and heart.
In terms of brilliance, Volkstok’n’barrell is the pick because he is just so raw and he hasn’t quite fully grasped the racing game. Looked to win the New Zealand Derby last time out but just couldn’t put Mongolian Khan away and that runner eventually kicked back strongly to win. The 2000m will suit Volkstok’n’barrell better, and he can definitely threaten here.
Selections
Sweynesse (4) clearly on top, ahead of Hallowed Crown (1), Volkstok’n’barrell (6) and Hampton Court (5).
The first Group 1 on the program is the $500,000 Ranvet Stakes (2000m). Looks pretty straight forward here – Contributer wins. Produced a brilliant turn of foot to win first up in the Apollo Stakes (1400m) at Randwick, then went to the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) at Warwick Farm and was ridden more closer than usual yet still proved much too good. He will only improve with the added fitness and rise to 2000m. Just looks the winner.
Silent Achiever is ticking over beautifully this Autumn, and her two runs behind Contributer have been excellent. The key for her is getting back to Rosehill, and she did score a brilliant win in this race last year. Looks to be going much better this time around, and the field she beat in 2014 probably had more depth than what she faces here, so while I think Contributer will win, it wouldn’t shock me if Silent Achiever knocked him off.
The rise to 2000m should also suit the classy gelding He’s Your Man. He was just fair first-up in the Apollo, then went to the Chipping Norton and did look the winner on the turn, but his fitness just gave way late. Tuned up for this with a quiet trial last Friday at Warwick Farm, and his record both at Rosehill and at 2000m is excellent. Hard to beat.
Selections
Contributer (1) looks the way to go, ahead of Silent Achiever (6), He’s Your Man (3) and Lucia Valentina (7).
In other races on the program:
. Shamlia looks a great chance in the opener after an impressive trial.
. Rising Romance is the multi anchor in the Epona.
. Peeping looks a safe way to go in the Sebring.
. Maygrove to bolt home in the Manion Cup.
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