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Rosey's 2015 AFL Preview: North Melbourne

23rd March, 2015
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Expert
23rd March, 2015
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In the pre-season of 2014, North Melbourne was the popular smoky to jump into the top four from outside the eight the previous year.

While they could only finish sixth, two games and 13.36% behind fourth-placed Fremantle at the end of the home and away rounds, they were able to run over Essendon and survive a barnstorming Geelong during the finals to finish the season a preliminary finalist.

Check out the rest of Rosey’s AFL preview series here.

It was a year of deliverance for a side that had been the definition of middle-of-the-road during coach Brad Scott’s reign. Now is the time for consolidation.

Let’s have a look at the side they have to do it with:
B: J.Macmillan S.Thompson L.Hansen
HB: S.Atley N.Grima N.Dal Santo
C: S.Gibson J.Ziebell D.Wells
HF: B.Harvey J.Waite S.Higgins
F: L.Thomas D.Petrie B.Brown
Foll: T.Goldstein A.Swallow B.Cunnington
Int: M.Firrito R.Bastinac S.Wright L.McDonald
Em: A.Black L.Adams B.Jacobs

The Kangaroos have built a squad that has excellent depth and flexibility across the board.

Players like Aaron Mullett, Robbie Tarrant (who will play while Nathan Grima recovers from injury), Scott McMahon, Joel Tippett and Kayne Turner can all play decent football, and as depth players will play a key role in keeping their side in top four contention.

And that doesn’t include a few top 30 draft picks we haven’t seen, plus a rookie like Robin Nahas who had forced his way into the best 22 last year before being struck down with injury.

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Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins are enigmatic additions to last year’s team. While supporters from their former clubs will say the gap between their best and worst is too great, anything close to high end consistency from them will add much value to any top four team.

Both players strike as the sort that will turn over a new leaf and deliver in a new environment.

Scott Thompson is arguably the premier full-back in the game, because like all the best key defenders he backs himself in the air against his opponent, and looks to run off and create at any opportunity.

Lachie Hansen, who reads the ball far better when behind it than he does in front, will also be down there to help out in the air as an effective third man up.

Shaun Atley and the returning Jamie MacMillan will look to be the runners from the back half, but may have to add some defensive steel to their natural attacking games.

Luke McDonald was possibly the most consistent first year player in the league in 2014, and will look to continue learning his defensive craft this time around.

Nick Dal Santo will float down back from time to time to do a little quarterbacking, but his teammates will want him driving the ball into the forward-line with his silky skills. He’s still one of only a handful across the league that appears to make time stop when he gets the ball.

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Daniel Wells will be like a new recruit himself, and in some ways it’s hard to believe he’s 30 years old. Not just the outside player he’s renowned as, his clearance work is exceptional when he gets the chance.

Jack Ziebell isn’t quite in the game’s elite, and will possibly never amount to much more than very good. He has often lacked continuity, missing an average of five matches a year over the last five seasons, but he’s as hard as a cat’s head, and will continue to crash in with zero regard for his own personal safety.

Andrew Swallow and Ben Cunnington are the other tough nuts that give the North midfield that hard edge that all top four aspirants need.

Captian Swallow is a wonderful natural footballer, clean of hand and mind, and if I call him a lesser version of Jobe Watson, it is meant as a high compliment. Cunnington still has plenty of improvement left in him at 23 years of age, and needs to lift his possession rate from 21-22 a game up to that 28-30 mark.

Swallow, Cunnington and Ziebell will feed at the feet of Todd Goldstein, who appreciates being a solo ruckman more than any other big man in the league, and delivers the goods accordingly.

Sam Gibson is good honest player who will be left alone to run the wings again. Ryan Bastinac has surely set himself to ditch the green vest that he carried through the finals last year, as he’s far too talented for that, and North will be a better side when he makes the step to first 18 player.

Drew Petrie is aging, and shrugged off criticism of being a flat-track bully with some match-winning periods in the finals series. His best is behind him, but as long as he presents aggressively, takes an opposition body down, and is good for two or three goals a game, he still has value.

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Ben Brown has only played eleven games, but kicked three goals in a stunning ten minutes in last year’s elimination final against Essendon to drag his side back into the game. Not many can do that so early in a career, so his future is bright, but there’ll still be inconsistency this season.

Lindsay Thomas has become a premier forward pocket in the competition, and will again present headaches for opposition sides. He just needs to keep his feet in the contest.

Brent Harvey was first spotted playing kick-to-kick with Captain Cook on the deck of the Endeavour, and is still going strong some 250 years later. What a marvel of the modern game he’s been.

There is still no-one that runs harder or quicker at the end of games, especially if he’s sniffed a goal, and he’ll once again be a clear and present danger to every backline in the league. Stop Harvey getting the ball, and you’ll cut down North’s most key avenue to goal.

Champion Data tells us that North has the second oldest list, and the most experienced in terms of games played. Their draw difficulty is ranked somewhere in the middle, which is not bad for a club coming off a prelim.

The list management says top four. The draw helps. The coaching staff and players have to deliver on it, and they should.

North will break teams open with fast, skilful play. If they can run hard both ways and ensure the team defence is strong, they’ll be a threat against whoever they play.

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Predicted ladder spread: third – sixth

Predicted finish: fourth

Rosey’s ladder
4th – North Melbourne
5th – Fremantle
6th – Gold Coast
7th – Geelong
8th – Richmond
9th – Essendon
10th – Brisbane
11th – Adelaide
12th – Collingwood
13th – Greater Western Sydney
14th – West Coast
15th – Carlton
16th – Melbourne
17th – Western Bulldogs
18th – St Kilda

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