The Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival rolls on at Rosehill this Saturday with the BMW as the showcase event.
The time honoured WFA race over 2400m will be supported by another Group 1, the Vinery Stud Stakes for the three-year-old fillies, as well as a host of other black type races.
The Japanese proved last week that they’re going to be a force to be reckoned with as we head towards The Championships, and off the back of their impressive performances, To The World has been installed as favourite for the BMW, a $1.5 million race.
Despite being only lightly raced, his Group 1 and Group 2 form at home reads extremely well for something like this over 2400m.
With the success of Contributor well established, Hartnell is another Godolphin import that has thrived under the care of John O’Shea.
His first-up narrow second to his stablemate in the Chipping Norton said that he’d be winning a race this campaign, which he did in comfortable fashion the next time out in the Sky High. A winner over 2600m and 3000m back home, the step up in distance is no cause for concern.
Lucia Valentina has been chasing home Contributor without threatening him, which suggests she’ll have trouble beating Hartnell home, but her Caulfield Cup third to Admire Rakti says she’ll be hard to beat.
Rising Romance ran second in that Caulfield Cup, so adds another element to the race here. She’s putting together a campaign that is leaving favourite punters frustrated, but racing well all the same.
Is Silent Achiever not going as well as last year, when she won the Ranvet and BMW, or is she merely running into stronger opposition this time around?
She’s going along OK, and is a Cox Plate place-getter let’s not forget. She might benefit from a quieter ride than when putting in an even run in the Ranvet.
Who Shot Thebarman is flying for when he gets in a handicap to suit, but is certainly a knockout chance here, even under the weight-for-age conditions. He’s racing beautifully under the radar, but would probably need this race run at Randwick to be a winning chance.
Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist showed a bit more in the Australian Cup at Flemington than he did first-up in the Peter Young, and while the distance will suit, the smaller track will not.
The uber-consistent Extra Zero almost stole the Australian Cup at 100-1, and while he won’t be those odds this time, he’s worth a nibble at a long price again. He’s a Victorian Derby place-getter, so has some staying credentials on his resume.
Opinion will run well at a price for Chris Waller, and Beaten Up won’t be the worst. Fast Dragon and the three-year-old Hampton Court are the two most despised in betting, and have their work cut out.
Selections
1. To The World
2. Hartnell
3. Who Shot Thebarman
4. Silent Achiever
First Seal dominates the betting in the Vinery Stud, but not to the extent that she’s unbackable, with black odds available for those interested.
She’s already a Group 1 winner, with another couple of placings at the highest level under her belt, and is thus far the dominant filly of her age. She hasn’t missed the quinella in her last eight starts, but has been beaten at very short odds a couple of times in that run.
First Seal was blown away in the Spring Champion, a hot speed race and the only time she’s seen 2000m, but is clearly the one to beat. She oozes quality and might just thump them by a big margin too.
Winx chases First Seal home most of the time, but avoided her last start to claim an overdue victory in the Phar Lap. She steps up to 2000m for the first time, but has thus far proven a couple of lengths inferior to the favourite.
Adrift beat First Seal upon resuming ($101 into $41 if you don’t mind), but has failed behind her twice since, and she’ll struggle to turn the tables again.
Amicus returned to her best in the Coolmore, fighting out the finish with Plucky Belle and First Seal, but meets the favourite three kilograms worse at the weights for that run.
Set Square is unbeaten from two starts at 2000m and beyond, both runs being in the Melbourne spring, culminating in her stylish Crown Oaks victory. She’s returned well, and is building to another win.
Thunder Lady was second in that Oaks after winning the Wakeful, and is going to relish the step up from a mile more than most in the race. She’s at big odds, and is well worth a place ticket at least.
Slightly Sweet is a consistent second tier Sydney filly, and will run her usual honest race without being a winning chance. Fenway is another knockout hope up from country Victoria with good form around the Melbourne staying three-year-olds.
Selections
1. First Seal
2. Set Square
3. Thunder Lady
4. Amicus
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