What a grand old race this is! Dating back to 1925, it was first won by a horse called Night Patrol, who went on to win the following year.
A further six horses have won the race on two occasions, but all of those pale in comparison to the great Manikato who strung together an amazing five wins in a row from 1979 to 1983.
Notable recent winners include Hareeba, Miss Andretti, Apache Cat and perhaps the greatest sprinter of all, Black Caviar.
In 2003 the race was renamed the Australia Stakes to coincide with the Australia Day holiday. It kept that title until 2011, when it was moved back to the month of March and resumed its original title.
This year we have a bigger field than normal, which looks considerably down on class. There are only three Group 1 winners in the race, and only one of them has won a weight-for-age race (Famous Seamus in Brisbane).
Below are the last 12 winners with age, gender, barrier and estimated starting price:
• 2014 Spirit Of Boom 6h (8) $5.50
• 2013 Black Caviar 6m (6) $1.05
• 2012 Foxwedge 3c (1) $12
• 2011 Black Caviar 4m (6) $1.20
• 2010 Turffontein 5h (2) $7
• 2009 Apache Cat 6g (2) $7
• 2008 Apache Cat 5g (2) $2.10
• 2007 Miss Andretti 5m (5) $1.55
• 2006 Virage De Fortune 3f (9) $5
• 2005 Cape Of Good Hope 7g HK (7) $5.50
• 2004 Regimental Gal 3f (6) $2.75
• 2003 Yell 3g (1) $4.50
Pertinent statistics follow, to which I am going to assign a points score of 1 to 5. I will then apply that points score to each runner (and total), to assess who is the best credentialed historical horse.
A) 12/12 had at least placed in a WFA race or Group 1 sprint in the past (5 points)
B) 10/12 either won or placed last start (4 points)
C) 10/12 were no worse placed than fourth during the race (4 points)
D) 10/12 had their last start in the Lightning Stakes, Newmarket Handicap or Patinack Farm Classic down the straight track at Flemington, all at Group 1 level. The only two exceptions were three year olds VDF and Yell (4 Points)
E) 10/12 aged 3, 5 or 6 years of age. Strangely only four-year-old winner was Black Caviar (3 points)
F) 9/12 drew barriers 1-6 (3 points)
G) 9/12 started at $5.50 or less (3 Points)
H) 8/12 were second or third-up in their preparations (3 points)
I) 5/12 were a filly or mare (1 point)
J) 5/12 drew barriers 1 or 2 (1 Point)
| HORSE | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | TOTAL |
| Rebel Dane | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | ||||||
| Famous Seamus | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |||||||
| Bel Sprinter | 5 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||
| Fontelina | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | ||||||
| Lucky Hussler | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 16 | |||||
| It Is Written | 5 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||
| Angelic Light | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 19 | ||||
| Vain Queen | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | |||||
| Griante | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | ||||||
| Girl Guide | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | ||||||
| Peron | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | ||||
| Galaxy Pegasus | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | |||||
| Earthquake | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 | ||
| Vezalay | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | |||||
Column C (which horses will be in first four early) is the hardest to ascertain. Eight quite obviously doesn’t fit into four, but this is my best educated guess as to the ability of each horse to occupy that position during in the race.
Even though there are a number of on pace runners, it is actually quite difficult to define which horse will actually lead. In essence that probably means the tempo of the race won’t be extremely fast.
Given that factor, barriers probably take a higher precedence than normal, and especially so given we have a capacity 14-horse field this year.
In reference to column G (odds of $5.50 or less), I have had to assess which horses in the field are likely to start at, or around that quote. They are the first four in the market at present. All are priced between $5 to $6.50, and could possibly shorten. No other horse in the race is likely to disturb this market equilibrium.
Conclusion
Clearly the three-year-old filly Earthquake has the most historical factors in her favour. I would have preferred her Group 1 form to be against older horses but she does look the ideal type for the race given her good barrier and ability to race on or near the pace.
Angelic Light comes up second pick, and would score a lot higher if she wasn’t having her first start from a spell. She can be tardy at the start, but I have given her the benefit of the doubt, in regard to maintaining a good position early. She may struggle if that isn’t the case.
A plethora of horses vie for third place, but the three-year-old Galaxy Pegasus might be the value runner for at least a place. This is a major step up in class for him, but he could be the outright leader, and run a cheeky race at big odds.
Rebel Dane looks the class runner, and horse to beat in the race. He just needed to draw one barrier closer to be in the historical placings, but should be considered in all exotic bets.
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