Richmond etched themselves into Australian sporting lore with an unbelievable run to September in 2014, but a hiding in the elimination final has made them a popular pick to drop out of the eight in 2015.
As unlikely as the Tigers’ final appearance was in 2014, their 2013 form suggests it may not have been a fluke. We continue our look at the 2015 contenders by analysing Richmond’s chances.
Let’s have a look at the list changes.
Additions: Taylor Hunt (DFA – Geelong Cats), Corey Ellis, Connor Menadue, Nathan Drummond, Daniel Butler, Reece McKenzie, Jayden Short, Jason Castagna, Kane Lambert (draft).
Subtractions: Jake King, Daniel Jackson (retired), Aaron Edwards, Orren Stephenson, Brad Helbig, Todd Banfield, Ben Darrou, Brett O’Hanlon, Cadeyn Williams (delisted).
What happened last year?
After breaking a 12-year finals drought in 2013, many were wondering whether Richmond could take the next step and become a serious contender in 2014. Early on, it looked as if it was a return to futility for the Tigers, as they slumped to a 3-10 record with nine matches to play.
What followed was one of the greatest stories in Australian sporting history, with the Tigers picking up nine consecutive victories – each seemingly more incredulous than the last – to snatch the final spot in the top eight. But they say that the candle that burns twice as bright burns out twice as quickly, and that was the case for Richmond.
An utter obliteration against Port Adelaide ended their finals campaign in an almost laughable fashion.
Richmond may have made their journey to the finals a lot harder than 2013 – where they finished fifth – but stats-wise it was actually another strong year. The team finished third in contested possession differential for the second year in a row, and actually rose from fifth to third in uncontested possession differential.
They also topped the competition for fewest disposals allowed per game.
Richmond were one of the competition’s best teams in 2013, but the form of their nine-game winning streak may have even eclipsed their efforts.
What’s changed?
The Tigers surprised a few by leaving their list virtually untouched in the offseason. Daniel Jackson’s retirement will leave somewhat of a hole to fill, but the club has enough young talent to replace him. Geelong’s decision to delist Taylor Hunt was somewhat surprising, but if the rebounding defender takes his second chance with both hands he could form a devastating tandem with Brandon Ellis coming off the half-back flanks.
Many believe that Richmond’s crushing loss in the finals was proof they weren’t good enough in 2014. I agree, but at the same time believe that learning as such in the manner that they did will prove extremely beneficial in the years to come.
Had they lost their final round match with Sydney and narrowly missed out on the finals, Richmond would have likely approached this offseason with the attitude that they were good enough to play finals, but unluckily missed out.
Damien Hardwick’s promise of a much tougher offseason, combined with a desire to prove themselves could make the Tigers deadly in 2015.
What needs to happen in 2015?
The Tigers have been playing at a high level stat-wise for the last two seasons, this season they need to produce the results. Games against Carlton, the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane and Melbourne in the first four weeks need to result four wins if the club is serious about reaching the finals again.
Fourteen games at the MCG will help the Tigers immensely, but many of their road trips are tough assignments, including Sydney at the SCG, Adelaide and Port Adelaide away, Fremantle at Domain Stadium and North Melbourne in Hobart.
Picking up convincing victories against lesser opponents is a must, as they don’t appear to have room for any upsets.
The verdict
The Tigers have a lot more potential than many give them credit for, and could certainly be a team that hangs around in the finals for many years to come.
Most of the teams that finished around them on the ladder look to have improved, so making the finals will a tough task. Bringing their best footy most weeks however, will be just enough to get them there.
Prediction: 8th.
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