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It’s not so much the talent already leaving after the Rugby World Cup but more the illustrious list of undecided players that must concern Wallabies coach Michael Cheika.
While the likes of Adam Ashley-Cooper, Nick Cummins, Wycliff Palu, Sekope Kepu, Nic White and 2011 World Cup captain James Horwill will be missed, Cheika is still facing the possibility of losing another entire Wallabies XV capable of challenging for the Webb Ellis Cup.
Cheika could do much worse than selecting the following line-up for Australia’s pool opener against Fiji in Cardiff on September 23:-
Bernard Foley, Lachie Turner, Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale, Luke Morahan, Quade Cooper, Will Genia, Ben McCalman, David Pocock, Dave Dennis, Rob Simmons, Sam Wykes, James Slipper, James Hanson and Ben Alexander.
He could also throw the likes of Liam Gill and Matt Hodgson on the bench.
All of these capped players are in Cheika’s 51-man group assembled in Brisbane this week for a World Cup “workshop”.
But none of them have committed to the ARU or Australian Super Rugby franchises beyond 2015.
With several other potential Wallabies also coming off contract this year, it equates to about $10 million worth of talent.
Some will stick around – the ARU is in advanced negotiations with “a few” and one-time Wallabies captain Pocock is believed keen to stay but needing to prove he’s clear of his serious knee injury woes.
But others will inevitably take big money offers offshore.
The reality is, even with high hopes for added revenue from a rich new broadcasting deal, the ARU will be hard pressed to retain all of its genuine Wallabies superstars.
More than 20 of the country’s elite players, headed by Folau, Beale, Cooper, Genia and Slipper, are in the sights of cashed-up clubs in Europe and Japan.
Folau, Beale and Cooper are also being courted by NRL outfits eager for their x-factor services.
Despite the potential post-World Cup exodus, Cheika is positive about the future.
He is confident of coaxing many of his Wallabies aces into staying, particularly those he’s close to at the NSW Waratahs, and also has faith in the two dozen or so capped players who have already recommitted to Australian rugby.
Heading the list of those going nowhere any time soon is Wallabies captain Michael Hooper along with several other established Test players including Stephen Moore, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Scott Fardy.
Young guns James O’Connor, Matt Toomua, Christian Lealiifano, Tevita Kuridrani, Rob Horne, Nick Phipps, Sean McMahon, Will Skelton and Sam Carter are also contracted beyond this year.
“I don’t think we’re looking too bad,” Cheika told AAP.
“Some players are going, some players are staying, some players are coming through.
“There’s obviously a whole new cycle to plan for heading into the next World Cup and that’s what we’ll start doing as soon as this World Cup’s over.”
Cheika is a master at selling his vision.
He pulled off the coup of the decade to nab code-hopping Folau from under the noses of NRL heavyweights Parramatta and also lured the Crusaders’ assistant coach Daryl Gibson to the Waratahs in 2013.
Along with the ARU’s contracting manager Andrew James, Cheika is highly involved in discussions with those Wallabies yet to re-sign.
“I believe that a lot of the guys want to hang around,” Cheika said.
“Sometimes it’s the devil in the detail, getting stuff done.
“The negotiations have been taking place between the players’ management and the contract manager here (at the ARU) and I’m sure that they’ll get the right result when the time comes.”
He is refusing to impose deadlines but is confident contract speculation won’t be a distraction in the countdown to the World Cup.
“I don’t think any player’s going to be waiting, whether they’re staying or going,” Cheika said.
“They’re going to be making their decisions before the World Cup for sure.
“As long as everyone’s clear on where they stand…because that clarity around what their position is at any given time allows them to play well now.”
But playing well now and moving on after the World Cup is not what Australian rugby fans want and the threat of large numbers taking the big money overseas is forcing the ARU to consider a more flexible contract system.
And losing the likes of Folau, the marketing jewel in the Australian rugby crown, may well hasten a change of the ARU’s current policy in which a player must be playing Super Rugby to be eligible for Wallabies selection.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.