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I tipped Manly to miss the finals before the season began, but now I’m starting to think it could get even worse than that.
They could finish closer to last than eighth – the bottom four is a real possibility.
I can’t imagine them finishing dead last – it just seems incomprehensible to think things could get that bad – but I can see them becoming also-rans in this competition.
Why? Yes, they’ve still got great players in the backline, but there was always a big question mark over their forwards. They were never going to be able to afford injuries up front and they’re already getting them.
They’ve got a couple hurt in the backline as well, but the forwards are the key for Manly because they don’t have nearly enough depth there. If they can’t register up front, it will put the brakes on the backline no matter how good they are.
Brenton Lawrence, Feleti Mateo and Josh Starling are all on the injured list.
St George Illawarra’s forward pack isn’t one that strikes fear into the hearts of the genuine contenders among other teams, but it did a job on the Sea Eagles on Saturday night.
The Dragons, as a team, ran for a whopping 1772 metres to Manly’s 1241 metres, with their forwards leading the way.
Trent Merrin is a terrific player, but he ran for 196 metres in 52 minutes. Statistics like that just shouldn’t happen.
The obvious flow-on effect of those sort of numbers is that the dominant team finishes its sets further down the field and is in a position to kick and chase well enough to potentially take the opposition fullback out of the equation.
Brett Stewart ran for just 80 metres out of the back for the Sea Eagles. Josh Dugan, under less pressure on his kick returns, ran for 192 metres.
St George Illawarra only won 12-4, so Manly – as bad as the statistics looked for them – were still committed, but commitment is sorely tested if you start getting pounded on a regular basis.
The lack of forward strength was the reason Manly faded towards the end of last season.
Glenn Stewart and Jamie Buhrer were out injured, Jason King was on his last legs and Anthony Watmough was playing injured.
Now, Stewart and Watmough are at other clubs and King has retired.
The Sea Eagles mainly picked up bargain buys or veterans who were genuine stars at their peak but who were now a bit past it. Their off-season buys have plenty of miles on the clock: 30 in Mateo’s case and 34 in the case of Willie Mason.
It wasn’t enough and when injuries kicked in Manly’s vulnerability was always going to be exposed. That time has already come.
The Sea Eagles will play Canberra at Lavington Sports Ground, Albury, on Saturday. Listen to the alarm bells if they can’t beat the Raiders. It will be deafening.
Does it matter if the Sea Eagles aren’t a factor this season? It depends.
Do Manly haters need that team to be highly competitive before they can really hate them, or will they still hate them just as much if other teams are beating up on them more regularly?
I reckon if you’re a genuine Manly hater you could use a full season of them struggling before there was the slightest risk of it becoming boring.
After all, they’ve been the most dominant team of the last eight years, appearing in four grand finals and winning two of them.
That’s if you don’t count Melbourne. The Storm have appeared in five grand finals and won three since 2006, but had two of those premierships expunged as part of their penalty for cheating the salary cap.
Geoff Toovey used to drive his shoulders in under the ribs of much bigger opponents and put them on their backs. Now, as Manly coach, he looks like he’s got the weight of the world on those shoulders.
It’s enough to make even Manly haters feel sorry for him.
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