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To win the ‘do or die’ games of Test rugby at the world cup, I believe you only need to have the ability to score two tries a match – and obviously concede less than that.
I originally based this theory merely on observations. But I asked myself recently, do my perceptions match the reality?
I thought, if one was to indeed average out the scores of all 49 rugby world cup knock-out games to date, would there be any surprises? I was curious, so I set aside a bit of time and worked it all out.
I wish to be clear that these statistics do not include the ‘playoff for third’ games. They are as useful as personalised number plates. I mean why bother? You only come out looking like a loser anyway.
I found that most world cup finals are tight affairs. I also found that the quarters and semis are much closer nowadays. There are far fewer points available in the knock-out stages than in the earlier rugby world cups.
Here are some fun facts.
• 1991 is the Benjamin Button of rugby world cups – a ‘curious case’, an anomaly. Apart from 1991, there has been an uncanny, steady decline in total tries scored at the knock-out stages of the respective world cups;
• 1987 saw 36 tries in the knock-out stages,
• 1991 saw 19 tries in the knock-out stages,
• 1995 saw 31 tries in the knock-out stages,
• 1999 saw 27 tries in the knock-out stages,
• 2003 saw 23 tries in the knock-out stages,
• 2007 saw 20 tries in the knock-out stages,
• 2011 saw 16 tries in the knock-out stages.
It is clear that there are fewer and fewer tries being scored in the knock-out stages. It also worth noting that 2011 was the first time that no side managed four tries in a game during the knock-out stages. Also, New Zealand scored 13 tries in the knock-out stages in 1987. In 2011, they managed a total of just four.
It is not only tries that are becoming fewer between the top eight sides during the knock-out stages. The points scored have been steadily diminishing since 1999, having steadily risen between the 1987 to 1999 world cups (except for the *1991 anomaly);
• 1987 had an average winning to losing score of 32 to 11 in knock-out matches.
• In *1991 the average score was 19 to 9,
• In 1995 the average score was 33 to 19,
• In 1999 the average score was 36 to 20,
• In 2003 the average score was 28 to 14,
• In 2007 the average score was 22 to 13,
• In 2011 the average score was 17 to 9.
When looking at these facts we must not forget that tries became worth five points in 1992.
But what is probably of most importance is the fact the average margins between winning and losing sides in knock-out stages is on the decline of late.
• 1987 had an average margin of 21 points between winning and losing sides in knock-out stages.
• In *1991 there was an average margin of 10 points,
• In 1995 there was an average margin of 14 points,
• In 1999 there was an average margin of 16 points,
• In 2003 there was an average margin of 14 points,
• In 2007 there was an average margin of 9 points,
• In 2011 there was an average margin of 8 points.
Clearly the average margins sharply dropped after 1987, before steadily increasing from 1995 to 1999. You can see above that margins have also been steadily reducing since 1999.
It is clear that the top-eight sides, the sides that make the quarter finals, are much closer than they once were.
What I think all this shows is that in order to reach the Rugby World Cup final you do indeed just need to be able to score two tries and concede one against the top eight sides.
But what about the final? What historically is enough to win? There have only been seven of these and the average scoreline in Rugby World Cup final is 19-10.
Of course five of the seven world cup finals have been extremely close matches. Interestingly, there has only been one world cup final (1987) where more than a total of two tries have been scored between the two sides.
The truth is there are genuinely eight sides that can win this year’s world cup and that is evident by how close things have become since the 1990s.
Indeed if you qualify for the quarter finals at the Rugby World Cup, you are literally an intercept pass or a charge down away from success or failure.
There is no guarantee that the Wallabies will even make the quarters but if they do they will have just as much of a chance as everyone else of winning the world cup.
Let’s hope they gain some inspiration from their cricketing cousins and let’s hope the fans can get behind them.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.