Statistically 2014 was Sydney’s best ever home-and-away season, but that all meant very little after a shocking capitulation in the grand final.
Claims that loss has ‘scarred’ them, as well as concerns with age have seen many write them off as contenders in 2015 – but that’s something Swans fans have heard countless times before.
Let’s have a look at the list changes.
Additions
Isaac Heeney, James Rose, Jack Hiscox, Abe Davis, Sean McLaren, Nic Newman, Lewis Melican, Jordan Foote (draft).
Losses
Ryan O’Keefe, Lewis Roberts-Thomson (retired), Nick Malceski (Gold Coast Suns), Shane Biggs (Western Bulldogs), Tommy Walsh (Ireland), Patrick Mitchell (USA), Jordan Lockyer, Matthew Dick (delisted).
What happened last year?
After a stunningly poor start to the season, the Swans fired on all cylinders right up until the end of September. They equaled the club record with 12 consecutive wins, established a new club record with 17 wins in a home-and-away season, and finished first in the competition for tackles per game – a feat they’ve achieved in every season of John Longmire’s tenure.
The grand final loss to Hawthorn was perhaps the most extreme example, but for a team renowned for their impeccable club culture and attitude, the Swans developed a worrying trend in 2014 of following up their best performances with some of their worst.
A week after opening their account with a 63-point demolition of the Crows in Adelaide, they suffered their worst SCG defeat in a decade. One week after their three-hour highlight reel win over Port Adelaide, they had to fight with all their might to scrape over the line against Richmond.
And the week after their ominous 71-point obliteration of North Melbourne in the preliminary final? Well, we all know what happened there.
It would to be too far to suggest complacency is an issue at Sydney, but should such a trend continue in 2015 then it certainly may be. Getting back to their trademark robotic consistency will be key.
What’s changed?
Lance Franklin’s monster contract was always going to squeeze a few players out, but you’d think Nick Malceski wouldn’t have been on the Swans OK-if-he-walks list. The Swans led the competition in scores from turnovers last season, and Malceski topped the league in forced turnovers.
Simply plugging someone like Jeremy Laidler into the best 22 won’t be enough. The Swans have the depth to alleviate his absence, but they’ll have to be more creative with their defensive setup.
Jarrad McVeigh might be the answer, especially given him vacating the midfield would open up a spot for Issac Heeney or Tom Mitchell.
Otherwise the Swans look virtually unchanged from a season ago.
What needs to happen in 2015?
The player who Sydney need to step up most in 2015 is Mike Pyke. In the 2012 grand final, the former Canadian rugby international’s performance with Shane Mumford off the ground was exceptional, leading many to believe the novelty of his presence had finally worn off.
In 2013 he finished second in the competition for contested marks, becoming a legitimate threat up forward in the process.
In 2014 however, he was nowhere to be seen.
The pressure of being Sydney’s lone ruckman clearly didn’t sit well, with his decline in form seeing Sydney finish second-last in the competition in hitout differential. Subsequently, they slipped from fourth in the competition to 13th in clearance differential per game.
Sydney’s complete inability to get first use of the ball was a big reason as to why they lost so badly in the grand final. Kurt Tippett’s fragile knees mean Pyke’s main support in the ruck will likely be Sam Reid, so he needs to return to his 2013 form if Sydney want to win the flag.
The verdict
As dramatic as Sydney’s grand final loss was, they were white-hot favourites in the decider for a reason.
A lot of Sydney’s core players are in the prime years of their careers, and they still have some seriously talented players on the list who have improvement to come.
They were the minor premiers in 2014, and have lost one player from their best 22. Write them off at your peril.
Prediction: first.
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