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2015 AFL season: Round 1 preview

Roar Guru
31st March, 2015
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Roar Guru
31st March, 2015
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It has been over six months since Hawthorn won its 12th premiership at the expense of their former favourite son, Lance Franklin.

This week Collingwood pair Lachlan Keeffe and Josh Thomas both tested positive to performance-enhancing drug clenbuterol, resulting in the pair being suspended indefinitely and possibly facing the sack from the club.

It’s time to put that all behind us as season 2015 of the Australian Football League kicks off this Thursday night between Carlton and Richmond.

Carlton versus Richmond
Blues coach Mick Malthouse is about to enter the final year of a three-year contract and time is running out for him to return the Blues to the finals, the club having finished 13th last year with only seven wins.

The future of former captain Chris Judd will again be a talking point and there is speculation that 2015 could be his final year. The two-time Brownlow Medallist is coming off an injury-ravaged 2014 and will turn 32 at the end of the season.

Richmond, meanwhile, have had almost seven months to dwell on their anti-climactic finish to last season which saw them thrashed by Port Adelaide by 57 points at the Oval in the elimination final, the club having recovered from a horror 3-10 start to clinch eighth spot in the final round.

With very little injury concerns heading into the new season, and a very favourable draw commercially, Richmond fans will have reason to be confident about the team’s chances in 2015.

Having reached the finals in consecutive seasons for the first time in almost four decades, the next step for the Tigers would be to finish in the top four, and victory on Thursday night would be the first stepping stone in achieving this.

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Prediction: Richmond by 25 points.

Melbourne versus Gold Coast Suns
Both Melbourne and the Gold Coast Suns enter this season expecting to improve on their performances last year – though it’s the latter team which will have the higher expectations, given the events of the last six months.

Foundation coach Guy McKenna was sacked at the end of last season after the club was deemed to have underachieved in 2014, despite at one stage being third on the ladder and eventually recording their best ever finish of 12th.

McKenna was replaced by the experienced Rodney Eade, who has the potential to take the club to the finals for the first time in the club’s short history with the list he has inherited.

Premiership defender Nick Malceski also joined the club during the off-season and he joins captain Gary Ablett Jr as the only two premiership players on the Suns’ list. Malceski’s Suns debut will come at the very ground where he and the Sydney Swans suffered grand final humiliation at the hands of Hawthorn last year.

Meanwhile, Melbourne will start the second year of the Paul Roos era hoping to improve on a 2014 season in which they won four games and improved their percentage.

However, the club did suffer a poor second half of the season which saw them lose their last 10 games, including a 64-point shocker against Greater Western Sydney in Round 21.

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The Dees have lost their last three matches against the Suns by an average of 27 points, the most recent of which was in Round 5 last year. They also have not won a Round 1 (or Round 2 for that matter) match since 2005, but this and next week’s match against GWS present the club the opportunity to get its season off to a good start.

However, with Gary Ablett back from injury for the Suns, they should continue to prove why they are tipped to continue rising up the ladder in 2015, however they cannot rely on him alone to win the game for them this Saturday.

Prediction: Gold Coast Suns by 16 points.

Sydney Swans versus Essendon
Now that the dust has settled, for the time being, on the club’s supplements, all the Essendon Bombers will want to do is play football.

Meanwhile the Swans have spent the last six months pondering what could have been after copping a 63-point hiding from Hawthorn in the grand final.

Franklin will be out to continue his dominance of Essendon, having averaged five goals in 11 outings against the red and black.

John Longmire will notch his 100th game as coach against the club whom the Swans defeated for their first win under his stewardship back in Round 2, 2011.

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The Swans will also look to win a Round 1 match against a club other than GWS for the first time since 2005, which is a strong chance given the Bombers’ 2012 players will be lacking match practice, those players having missed the NAB Challenge due to what has turned out to be a meaningless provisional suspension.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 30 points.

Brisbane Lions versus Collingwood
The first grudge match of the season will see Dayne Beams and the Brisbane Lions take on Collingwood in what could arguably be the biggest clash between the two sides since the 2002 and ’03 grand finals.

Beams, who featured in the Magpies’ 2010 premiership team, requested a trade to the Lions last year so he could be closer to his ill father.

Beams, Allen Christensen and Mitch Robinson will all make their Lions debut against a Pies side which has been plagued by the controversy involving Lachlan Keeffe and Josh Thomas, both of whom have been suspended indefinitely.

It’s the last thing Pies coach Nathan Buckley would want with his side desperate to put a disappointing 2014, in which they missed the finals for the first time in almost a decade, behind them.

The club’s only win in the NAB Challenge was an impressive 44-point win over an understrength Hawthorn, while they also copped a 61-point thrashing from the Western Bulldogs in the final match.

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By contrast, the Brisbane Lions were the best performed team in the pre-season, with their undefeated run showing why they will be favoured to climb up the ladder in 2015 under second-year coach Justin Leppitsch.

Can Dayne Beams inspire his new club to victory on Saturday night, or will the Pies get one up on him at the Gabba, where they have lost just twice since 2005?

Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 25 points.

Western Bulldogs versus West Coast Eagles
Last season the West Coast Eagles earned a reputation as being the flat-track bullies of the AFL, after failing to defeat any of last year’s finalists, while feasting on the easybeats such as Melbourne and GWS (a combined winning margin of 270 points across three matches against them).

Coach Adam Simpson said the moniker doesn’t sit well with him and that he didn’t get the concept, while at the same time stressing that the club needed to start contending against the competition’s heavyweights.

The Western Bulldogs finished 14th and lost key personnel at the end of last season, thrown into disarray following the departures of captain Ryan Griffen, coach Brendan McCartney and CEO Simon Garlick. But they did manage to finish as the third-best performed team during the NAB Challenge.

High hopes will be placed on their biggest off-season recruit in Tom Boyd, the former number one draft pick who joined the club from GWS as part of the Ryan Griffen trade. Luke Beveridge will also be in charge of the club as coach for the first time.

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The Eagles’ reputation as flat-track bullies and their stronger side on paper should get them home here.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 35 points.

St Kilda versus GWS Giants
One of the lower-profile matches of the round will see the last two wooden spooners, St Kilda and Greater Western Sydney, face off in the first Sunday match for the season at Etihad Stadium.

Experts have again forecast a long season for the Saints, who endured a poor pre-season best illustrated by a 106-point loss to Hawthorn in their final NAB Challenge match and long-term injuries to key players.

Additionally, captain Nick Riewoldt is still in doubt as he continues to deal with the death of his younger sister Madeleine in February. Fellow veteran Leigh Montagna is also doubtful due to an ankle injury.

In contrast to the Saints’ poor pre-season, the Giants’ preparation for this season was impressive, finishing with the best percentage of any team during the NAB Challenge, with high-profile recruits Ryan Griffen and Joel Patfull impressing.

The club enjoyed a strong finish to 2014 which included winning at the MCG and Etihad Stadium for the first time on either side of a narrow loss to Collingwood at home.

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Accordingly, expectations will be high for the fourth-year club as they look to continue moving off the bottom of the ladder.

Given the Saints’ woes and predictions of another long season for them, the Giants will fancy themselves on Sunday, but the home ground advantage will play into the Saints’ hands.

Prediction: St Kilda by six points.

Adelaide Crows versus North Melbourne
Another new era will dawn at the Adelaide Crows when coach Phil Walsh takes charge of the club for the first time against North Melbourne.

Walsh took over as the club’s coach following the sensational sacking of Brenton Sanderson at the end of last season, at a time when the uncertainty over the futures of Patrick Dangerfield and Rory Sloane cast a cloud.

Taylor Walker will captain the side for the first time, the forward having taken over from the injury-cursed Nathan van Berlo who missed the entire 2014 season due to an Achilles injury.

Meanwhile, North Melbourne enjoyed a productive off-season since reaching the preliminary final from outside the top four last year, landing Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins from Carlton and the Western Bulldogs respectively.

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These two players join the Roos at a time in which they are well placed to contend for the club’s first premiership since 1999.

But Brad Scott’s men have to first start this season by doing what they haven’t done since Round 21, 2003 – beat the Crows in Adelaide.

The Crows’ home ground advantage and the Roos’ poor record against them in the City of Churches will almost certainly make the Crows favourites here.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 18 points.

Fremantle versus Port Adelaide
In one of the matches of last year’s finals series, Port Adelaide sent Fremantle crashing out of September in straight sets. The Dockers’ season-opening match provides the club a chance to avenge that loss and launch their latest attempt to win a maiden premiership.

Indeed, time is running out for Ross Lyon to deliver the club the ultimate success, especially with speculation rife that one or both of Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands will retire at the end of this season, the pair having been key important figures for the club over the last decade and a half.

Port Adelaide currently possess a playing list capable of winning the club’s second premiership, and it’s hoped that the pain of losing last year’s preliminary final to Hawthorn by less than a kick will inspire them to their first flag since 2004.

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Fremantle’s desperation to avenge last September’s loss, and their home ground advantage for this match, could play into their hands here.

Prediction: Fremantle by eight points.

Hawthorn Hawks versus Geelong Cats
The round concludes with modern-day rivals Hawthorn and the Geelong Cats meeting in their annual Easter Monday showdown at the MCG.

The Hawks, who will be attempting to become the first team since the Brisbane Lions of 2001-02-03 to capture a rare hat-trick of flags, will unfurl their premiership flag against the Cats, a team they struggled to beat between the 2008 grand final and the 2013 preliminary final, sparking the so-called ‘Kennett Curse’.

In recent times, however, the club has moved on from that curse by winning three of their last four against the Cats, including twice in the space of three weeks late last season.

New recruit James Frawley may have endured a tough start to life as a Hawk but fans can expect him to fire and vindicate his value to the two-time defending premiers, having left the Melbourne Demons at the end of last year.

Interestingly, he will face off against another ex-Demon in Jared Rivers, who in tandem with Harry Taylor will be expected to marshall the Cats’ defence against the Hawks’ leading goalkicker from last season, Jarryd Roughead, and their smaller targets Cyril Rioli and Luke Breust.

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The Hawks’ bid to win a third straight flag this season and the Cats’ desperation to restore their dominance of the club that denied them the 2008 flag will make for what should be another must-watch match between the two rivals.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 17 points.

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