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Running the rule over the Super Rugby contenders

31st March, 2015
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David Pocock's Brumbies were thrashed by the Crusaders. (AAP Image/Theron Kirkman)
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31st March, 2015
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Will we ever know what happened at Essendon? Just kidding! This is a drug saga-free zone.

It’s time nail down how the Super Rugby teams have fared and have a stab at where it might all end up come June.

So far this season, rugby has been a bubble for me – a bubble to poke my head into, to escape and just turn off. I haven’t even tweeted as much while watching rugby this year (shock, horror) because I just want to enjoy the fact I’m watching rugby.

It’s my first year working full time in local news. And Saturday was the culmination of the first election I’ve covered. Whatever you think of us media (you’re probably talking about how we’re all hacks under your breath, I can deal with that), the journalists might come second to the party-involved on the list of most worn out folk after an election.

Since December last year, the candidates and their party heavy-weights have been racing around my western Sydney electorates like a pack of hounds after a rabbit in a forest – and I’ve been trying to keep up.

I haven’t watched as many games live as I’d like to, but even scheduling time to watch them on replay has been a life saver.

I’ve chosen my topics carefully until this point of the season – and missed a week – because I didn’t want to deceive anyone. While I’ve researched and written about narrower topics, I haven’t made as many sweeping diagnoses as I usually do by this point of the season.

This week I want to run the rule over the lot. Let me know if you think I’m misguided and need to go and read another budget announcement.

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Group A: You can’t win the competition in seven rounds, but you can certainly lose it
The Reds, Blues and Force are languishing.

Technically it’s still probably possible for any of these guys to make the finals, but it’s not going to happen.

Force fans are probably crestfallen this week as they consider the possibility of sitting out the draw and emerging on the bottom of the table if the Reds and Blues both win. After starting so brightly against the Waratahs in week one, they now haven’t won in a month and a half.

What went wrong?

It’s the same problems as last year unfortunately – the ones that prevented them from making the finals have been compounded now their pack isn’t able to assert the same level of dominance this year. They can’t score enough points, are missing an impact forward and they don’t have a good enough fly half.

The Force must recruit or develop a better number 10 and find that Wycliff Palu, Scott Higginbotham, Michael Hooper-type impact forward that separates a hard working pack from an elite one.

Where to start with the Reds? Primarily I don’t think their coach is good enough. Someone else needs to run that team now.

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On a talent level they still have some high-level Super Rugby players, but compare this year’s team to 2011’s side. Their talent has waned after a number of years’ lacklustre recruitment and not quite finding the next generation to push the championship veterans to the top of the mountain again.

Samu Kerevi looks like a find, but they need more of them to pan out and a better general to put all the pieces together.

Its one step forward and two steps backward for the Blues. What a shame too, because my man Francis Saili is still waiting for a chance to shine in a good backline, but he’s on this Blues side instead. I can’t put my finger on what exactly is going wrong there.

I think it has to be leadership and coaching – because game preparation lets them down regularly. They haven’t got a consistent style and they seem to be chasing the opposition rather than planning effectively.

I’d hate to be the one to sack a ‘Sir’, but with the likes of Patrick Tuipolotu, Steven Luatua, Jerome Kaino, Francis Saili, Frank Halai and Charles Piutau you shouldn’t end up six and zero.

Group B: One more bad turn and we’ll need to switch of the life support
Cheetahs, Rebels and Lions are on life support, and the prognosis isn’t good.

After two weeks – despite losing to the Waratahs – the Rebels looked like they’d finally turned the corner. But since then they’ve only beaten the Force. They can’t score enough and in fact are a slightly better version of the Force.

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The Rebels will still knock off a few teams they shouldn’t this year but will have to find a completely new plane of efficiency to have a hope of sneaking into the finals.

Remember that Cheetahs team from two year’s ago that defended stoutly, didn’t lose the ruck battle and had an efficient and long-range attack lead by Willie Le Roux. Now they’ve leaked so many points in six games, struggle to win a ruck that doesn’t involve some Heinrich Brussow genius and the back line runs hot and cold.

The Lions fans need to remember that it was just the Rebels and Reds. I’m not trying to burst the bubble too much, but a bit of reality is useful. A team with three wins from seven and a points differential of minus-54 isn’t legitimate. They’re more likely to stick somewhere around their group B brethren than climb the log. I’d be happy if they proved me wrong.

Group C: The Crusaders
The Crusaders are in their own group. One week after apparently coming to life they suddenly looked like an ordinary team on a road trip to South Africa, rather than a team that is getting it together.

I’m still confident they’ll work things out – they always do – but I can’t assume yet.

The problem is the Chiefs and Hurricanes have a good gap now and even the Highlanders might not be easy to catch for a sneaky second New Zealand wildcard spot.

Group D: Ready to mug someone for a ticket to the show
Sharks, Stormers, Bulls, Waratahs and Highlanders are fighting for three finals spots.

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The Stormers, Bulls and Sharks are in a three-way tussle at the moment and the collective mediocrity means the South African conference only has one team in the top six.

I don’t know which way it’s going to break yet. The best team travelling to Australasia is going to have great shot at booking a home final.

The Stormers need to score bonus points to make the most of their wins. The Sharks can’t leak 60 more points than the other conference leaders and hope to be taken seriously. The Bulls need to assert their dominance while they are in South Africa right up until Round 14.

Despite their win over the Brumbies I think it’s likely the Waratahs will still finish second in the Australian conference. They’re just not consistent enough, as the Blues street fight of a rugby game showed.

Looking at it like an English Premier League race, the Waratahs trail the Brumbies by two points, but have a bye this week. By the time the Brumbies have their second bye in Round 16 the Waratahs need to have clawed back at least three points to make use of that enforced absence.

The Highlanders are the New Zealand version of the Waratahs. They’ve got so much talent in the pack and in the backline, but haven’t been as consistent as could be expected of them this year. Their recent form has been on an uptick, besides that weird Hurricanes match up, so maybe they’ll go on a tear during the second half of the season. They have the quality.

The ‘Landers and ‘Tahs are the most likely to make the leap from this group.

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Group E: Come and get me
The Hurricanes, Brumbies, and Chiefs are the pace-setters at the moment.

The Brumbies haven’t been pretty but they’ve been efficient and, at times, brutal. So you have to give them the credit they deserve. They are still the team to beat in the Australian conference and have the combination of strength, speed and experience to go on the road and get enough points to fend off the Waratahs.

They need to make sure they don’t get dragged into a wrestling match and remember to use their backline strengths to score and not stop doing that as the year wears on.

The Chiefs are tweaking, tuning and waiting. After a number of years going through the grinder, winning championships and making the finals, I think they’ll put it together. When they’re on song their set-piece attack is still the best in the world and they already have their South African trip done and dusted.

By Round 18 they’ll probably be playing the Hurricanes for the top spot in the New Zealand conference.

The Hurricanes are the only unbeaten side left in Super Rugby but haven’t been infallible. I wouldn’t expect Roarer Diggercane to tip against them, but they’ll lose a few this year. So far an uncanny composure has seen them rid out tough patches and brilliant execution has allowed them to capitalise on the good patches.

I feel great about the Hurricanes though – they’ve been a star-studded team that has struggled to put together six good games in a season, let alone six in a row. It’s refreshing to see them finally come good and win the tough games as well as the open-TJ-and-Savea-will-tear-you-apart ones.

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