The grand final of Australian racing, The Championships, have arrived at Randwick, and the first day promises to be an absolute ripper with four Group l races, highlighted by the $3 million Doncaster Mile (1600m), along with the $2.5 million TJ Smith Stakes (1200m).
The weather forecast is predicting showers, and the rail is in the true position. The last time it was there was on Valentine’s Day and the fence was a no-go zone.
Thankfully the majors are on later in the afternoon, so by then we should get a guide as whether the fence is yea or nay.
Doncaster Mile
The ninth race on the card is due to go at 5.10pm AEST.
The traditional theory with the Doncaster is that you need a strong 2000m horse to win the best mile race in Australia. But with recent winners such as More Joyous and Sacred Falls (twice), that theory may not apply anymore.
However, the 2015 edition does look to be one filled with great depth, and on that basis, I’m going with Pornichet, who is on the quick back-up after bolting home last Saturday in the Neville Sellwood Stakes (2000m), sitting off the speed before peeling out at the top of the straight and winning with ease. Loves give in the ground, trained on the track and will be very strong at the end of this tough 1600m.
I originally thought Royal Descent was the forgotten horse in the race, but given she’ll strike a soft track and has the services of Joao Moreira, so is rightfully high up in the markets. Looked to be in need of the run first up in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m) before running a much improved race in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m) behind Real Impact, running fourth, beaten just over two lengths.
Real Impact does meet her 1kg better for beating her two lengths, but the Randwick mile will really suit Royal Descent, and she went very close to winning it last year.
The wet track does bring Sacred Falls into the mix, even from the wide draw. He worked home well first up in the Canterbury Stakes, then he felt the firm track in the George Ryder. His record at the Randwick mile is phenomenal – two Doncasters and a George Main Stakes. He does need to improve a few lengths, but the wet track definitely brings him closer to his rivals given that some of them will struggle in the conditions.
Selections
Pornichet (14) on top, ahead of Royal Descent (6), Sacred Falls (1) and Hallowed Crown (10).
TJ Smith Stakes
The highlight race may come 40 minutes later, where we see the clash of three of the best sprinters Down Under: Lankan Rupee, Terravista and Chautauqua.
I am going to stick solid with Chautauqua. He was outstanding in defeat when running second to Brazen Beau in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) given he was also a touch unlucky also thanks to the ride from Dwayne Dunn. One moment he was hard on the back of Brazen Beau, and then in a flash he was five lengths off.
He gets away from Flemington which is worry, but remember this time last year and he was explosive as well, winning races like the Gosford Guineas and Hawkesbury Guineas. He is a star who can get his first major here.
Terravista ran third to Brazen Beau and Chautauqua in the Newmarket, and he was solid without being great. His two trials leading up to that were just fair, so I am fairly certain that Joe Pride probably used the Newmarket as his third ‘trial’ before running in his grand final here, where I am sure Pride will have him 100 per cent wound up and ready to win. Great stats at the track, distance and second up. Hard to beat.
Sweet Idea finally got her first Group l when given a sweet steer by Blake Shinn to win the Galaxy (1100m), sitting off the speed and letting down with a powerful finish. Shinn goes off, but she gets a handy replacement in some mug called Joao Mroeria. Great stats similar to that of Terravista, and one thing you do know with her is that she’ll be very, very strong at the end of a hard 1200m on a rain affected track.
Selections
Chautauqua (3) to win, just, from Terravista (2), Sweet Idea (10) and Lankan Rupee (1), with an honourable mention to Rain Affair, who should lead and run a cheeky race after an improved effort last week.
Australian Derby
The third major is the $2 million Australian Derby (2400m), which looks a fascinating contest on paper, with serious horse flesh running.
I’ll go with the horse that I know will run a very strong 2400m, Ruling Dynasty, who produced one of the runs of the meeting last Saturday at Rosehill in the Tulloch Stakes (2000m), making up many lengths to run fifth to Hauraki. Reason why his run was so good was that the leaders absolutely crawled in front (first 1400m in 1.28.08), pretty much putting the line through any winning hopes from the back.
Fast run 2400m at Randwick, his home track, looks ideal, and I know both James and Bart Cummings have a big wrap on this horse. I’ll go with him each-way.
I have been following Volkstok’n’barrell since he won first up at Ellerslie, backing him every start, and I jumped off his back in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) in favour of Sweynesee, and what happened? He produced a brilliant finish to nail Preferment right on the peg. In terms of brilliance, this horse has many lengths. The reason why he isn’t on top is because I was keen on him in the New Zealand Derby (2400m) and he failed to run the distance out. Adding the trip over, and the fact he has had a three/four month prep, is there one final brilliant run in him? I’m not sure, but his work on Tuesday morning was outstanding.
Putting in Preferment for third. Hadn’t done much in a couple of runs this time in, but he improved sharply in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m), beating all bar the Kiwi mentioned above. Randwick 2400m with some give in it looks perfect and he’ll take a power of beating.
Selections
Ruling Dynasty (8) to win for me, over Volkstok’n’barrell (2), Preferment (1) and Hauraki (5).
Inglis Sires
The fourth and final Group l to look at is the $1 million Inglis Sires (1400m).
I am taking on Pride Of Dubai because the Diamond form, as a whole, hasn’t stood up, plus he trialled terribly last week.
So I’ll go with the unlucky Slipper runner, Ready For Victory. I say unlucky, but it was through his own doing, getting completely lost around Rosehill and shifting about badly in the run. He wouldn’t have beaten Vancouver, but he definitely should have run second. Already this far out he looks the Caulfield Guineas horse, but he’ll prove very hard to beat here.
Odyssey Moon ran really well in the Slipper, finishing eighth, beaten just over two lengths after covering extra ground for the entire. Rod Northam is an astute horseman, so I’ll back his judgement that the horse has come through the Slipper well and is roaring to go here.
The Sires/Champagne always produces a runner or two with non-Slipper form, and the best of those appears to be the Team Hawkes youngster Rageese, who worked home very strongly from the back to run second to Tarquin in the Pago Pago Stakes (1200m) a few weeks back. Has a stack of upside, and he did look very sharp in a recent Randwick barrier trial on Monday.
Selections
Clearly Ready For Victory (3) on top, to beat home Odyssey Moon (4), Rageese (6) and Queen Of Wands (11).
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