The Adam Simpson era got off to a solid if ordinary start at West Coast; an 11-11 record and a ninth placed finish making them as middle of the pack as they come.
2015 looks to be a crossroads year for the Eagles. They’re not rebuilding as such, but retirement and injuries have claimed some serious talent. It could be a long season.
Let’s have a look at the list changes.
Additions
Kane Lucas (DFA – Carlton), Liam Duggan, Tom Lamb, Jackson Nelson, Damien Cavka, Alec Waterman, Corey Adamson, Patrick Brophy (draft).
Losses
Darren Glass, Dean Cox, Beau Waters (retired), Jacob Brennan, Ashley Smith, Adam Carter, Blayne Wilson (delisted).
What happened last year?
A strong start to the season saw West Coast occupy top spot after Round 3 but, after a run of seven losses from the next eight games, the top eight was always an uphill battle. The Eagles managed to work their way back into contention over the next eight weeks, but after they let a 34-point third-quarter lead slip against Essendon in Round 21, that was it.
The oft-talked about stat for West Coast in 2014 was their record against top-eight teams compared to their record against the rest. The Eagles went 11-2 against non-finals teams, with an average winning margin of 50 points.
Unfortunately, they went 0-9 against opponents that finished inside the top eight, and their two losses against non-finals teams came against teams that made the finals the previous season.
Matt Priddis may have won the Brownlow Medal, but the midfield went missing far too often for the Eagles in 2014. The club finished with negative differentials per game in both disposals and tackles – an almost surefire sign of a club not up to scratch.
What’s changed?
The Eagles farewelled three of their greats in Dean Cox, Darren Glass and Beau Waters in the offseason. Glass missed most of 2014, and Cox was always going to hang up the boots, but the club was hoping Waters would return in 2015, and so his departure probably stings the most.
Nic Naitnaui looks ready to handle the ruck, but three retirements of that calibre are going to leave a hole, no matter how ready the next wave appears to be.
The big offseason event for West Coast occurred in the NAB challenge, with key defender Eric MacKenzie suffering an ACL injury – ruling him out for the season. Forget what the All-Australian selectors told you, MacKenzie was one of the competition’s elite defenders a season ago, and his loss cannot be understated.
Combined with the retirements of Glass and Waters, this leaves West Coast’s defensive stocks in serious peril, with the keys likely being left to Will Schofield and Mitch Brown. Putting Jeremy McGovern down back more regularly might be worth a shot.
What needs to happen in 2015?
West Coast face off against just two top-eight sides from a year ago in the first eight weeks, and so they need to take full advantage of the opportunity presented to them to get the ball rolling.
Eventually however, the Eagles will need to defeat a top-eight team. Six of their nine encounters with top-eight teams from a year ago are at Domain Stadium, and so you’d think they’d need to pick up two or three wins if they want to play finals. They could knock off Essendon, but matches against Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and Fremantle (twice) look beyond them.
Of their non-finals opponents, West Coast face off against Adelaide and Gold Coast twice – two teams many have picked to make the leap this year. The Eagles will fancy their chances of taking the lion’s share of these games, but they’ll need to pull off this feat in conjunction with the one aforementioned. With a severely undermanned defensive unit that doesn’t look likely.
The verdict
West Coast were unable to match it with the competition’s best a year ago, and with their best 22 looking slightly weaker than a year ago – especially down back – turning the tables will be a task.
Their soft draw will stop them from finishing too lowly, but finals look a way away.
Prediction: 13th.
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