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Have you wondered which team creates the most clean breaks per ball carry? Who needs the most carries to beat a defender?
What team makes the most handling error per carry? It’s hard to be a ball-carrying team and not concede ruck penalties. Who avoids that best?
Here is a statistical analysis of Super Rugby, but with a twist.
Most efficient line break-creating teams (per carry)
1. Chiefs (1 break in every 10.2 carries)
2. Waratahs (1 in 11.8)
3. Crusaders (1 in 12.3)
4. Sharks (which makes you wonder why they’ve run 250+ times less than the Force)
5. Highlanders
6. Hurricanes
7. Stormers (also a team that needs to chance their arm more)
8. Blues (1 in 14.6, showing they’re not as bad as Sir John has made them)
9. Cheetahs (handling errors and this stat conspire to give them trouble)
10. Brumbies
11. Reds (1 in 17 carries)
12. Rebels
13. Lions (1 break in 23.3 carries, no game-breakers)
14. Force (1 in 25.7)
15. Bulls (1 in 26.2)(take a bow, Pierre Spies, Jan Serfontein and JJ Engelbrecht)
You can see how hard some teams have to work to score tries, given the difficulty they have in breaking the line. Also, some teams who have been off their normal pace like the Waratahs, Chiefs, Crusaders and even the Blues will score tries, if they keep this up.
Best at beating defenders
This list is not the same as line breaking efficiency. Just beating a defender does not necessarily land you in a big acre of space.
The Highlanders and Waratahs are best at this category and the Sharks and Crusaders are the worst.
1. Highlanders (1 defender beaten every 4.8 carries)
2. Waratahs (1 in 5.2)
3. Blues
4. Chiefs
5. Reds
6. Bulls (showing a lack of speed or passing skill; beating defenders but not getting clear of the line)
7. Hurricanes
8. Cheetahs (1 in 6.1)
9. Stormers
10. Lions
11. Brumbies
12. Rebels (1 in 6.7)
13. Force
14. Sharks
15. Crusaders (1 in 7.4 carries)
A style of attack can be revealed here – playing tight to create a ruck target for slower loose forwards.
Errors per carry
This is a statistic a coach will know. It is the reason so many promising training ground moves fail in games: knock-ons, passes that are too high or low, handling errors.
The Hurricanes are near the top of the good hands category, which means they are attacking well, but also avoiding the mistakes.
The worst? The Cheetahs, with a handling error for every 5.2 carries. The tidy Rebels take 10 carries to commit an error.
Best to worst
1. Rebels
2. Force
3. Hurricanes
4. Lions (1 error in every 8.5 carries)
5. Bulls
6. Stormers
7. Waratahs (a superb stat given how many passes they throw)
8. Blues
9. Chiefs
10. Highlanders
11. Crusaders (1 error every 6.3 carries)
12. Brumbies
13. Reds
14. Sharks
15. Cheetahs
Of course, I would need to collate passes into this stat, but my spreadsheet capabilities would then be exceeded.
Penalties conceded per carry
The problem with this stat is obvious – penalties at the ruck and scrum or in the air are not really associated with carries, but it’s interesting that the Waratahs and Brumbies are very good at this. Their rate is 1 penalty for every 12.1 and 11.6 carries, respectively – as are the Stormers and Hurricanes.
The Reds and Cheetahs are very poor as they are pinged 1 time in less than 8 carries.
Hope you enjoy this unique look.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.