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The Championships Day 2 preview

The Cox Plate is a special race, and Criterion is in with a decent shot.
Roar Guru
8th April, 2015
7

The Championships conclude this Saturday at Randwick with the best race of the entire Sydney Autumn Carnival, the $4 million Group l Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m), where star galloper Contributer just holds sway in betting ahead of Japanese raider To The World.

There are three other majors on the card, most notably the revamped Sydney Cup (3200m), which is now a class race itself thanks to the prize money bump up to $1.6 million.

Queen Elizabeth
The ninth race on the program is due to go at 4:35pm Sydney time.

By the time we get to this race, it’ll be the 19th race run on a rain-affected surface, so the track will be chopped up. That worries me a bit with Contributer. I still think he is a great chance, but I am putting Criterion on top.

Criterion is a different beast since joining the Hayes/Dabernig team, and in three runs for the stable, he has placed each time, all at Group l level, including an international Group l. His recent trial at Randwick was fabulous, he handles wet ground, and I like the fact that the stable had set this race as his goal for the last four months. He’ll be very hard to hold out.

Contributer is the best weight-for-age horse in Australia, so he has to go in as second choice. Back-to-back Group l WFA wins will ensure he goes around as favourite, and on form, he is the one to beat. Only query is his last wet track run was back in the UK this time last year and he ran third, beaten 18 lengths in a field of five. Concede he is a far better horse now, but that’s a worry for me.

T forgotten horse here is Spillway. The turn of foot he showed between the 300m-200m in the Australia was scintillating, and it also meant that he hit the front too soon and was almost grabbed by the stablemate Extra Zero. The positives are his recent Randwick trial was strong and he handles soft going. Negative is that the form out of the Australian Cup has been terrible.

Selections
Criterion (2) on top, to beat home Contributer (1), Spillway (7) and To The World (10).

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Sydney Cup
The prizemoney bump to $1.6 million has seen the Sydney Cup become a classy two-mile race and not just a camel handicap.

I saw earlier in the week that $3 was on offer for Hartnell. Surely a mistake by the bookies, because he just looks the good thing of good things. He showed his class with a superb win in the BMW (2400m), producing a brilliant turn of foot to hold off one of Japan’s best in To The World. He is a last-start Group l winner, yet gets down to the minimum weight, up to an ideal distance, and he loves soft ground. How is he not odds on?

The improver surely has to be Protectionist. Many are saying that his Melbourne Cup win last year was one of the best they have seen. Well, upon reflection, he may have been flattered, because he hasn’t done a great deal in three runs back. But a couple of key factors go his way here. He gets back to 3200m, a soft track and a spacious circuit. I’ll be surprised if he beats Hartnell, but he should run well nonetheless.

You have to forgive and forget Grand Marshall on Monday in the Chairman’s. Joao Moreira had a rare off day in the saddle, and this wasn’t one of his best rides where he was very negative from a good draw and elected to attempt to make ground near the inside, which was like quicksand. He is a stayer, no doubting that, and Jim Cassidy back aboard is a positive because he rides the horse better than anyone.

Selections
Hartnell (6) over Protectionist (1), Grand Marshal (11) and Who Shot Thebarman (4).

Australian Oaks
The first Group l is race six on the card, the $1 million Australian Oaks (2400m).

I’m really keen here on Thunder Lady. She looked in need of the run first up before running better in the Keith Nolan, then running in the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) and was excellent late when third to Fenway. She did appear to have come condition on her in the mounting yard prior, so I am tipping her to peak here. She’ll run a very strong 2400m and gets Zac Purton aboard.

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Winx is the best filly in this race by a mile, so she has to go in as a chance. The wide barrier cost her dearly in the Vinery Stud, where she just got too far back. Doubt she is a 2400m horse, but she has class and brilliance, and those two factors go a long way towards victory in the Oaks.

Gust Of Wind is a stablemate of Thunder Lady and is on the quick back-up after racing in the Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) on Monday, where she made up a stack of ground late to run fourth to Candelara. Gives the impression she’ll run the distance and interesting to note that Tye Angland rides this filly and not Thunder Lady.

Selections
Going with Thunder Lady (1), ahead of Winx (2), Gust Of Wind (12) and Fenway (3).

Queen of the Turf Stakes
I’m taking on Noble Protector. Her two wins this time in have been against nothing and I remember in the Spring trainer Danny O’Brien stating this mare hates two things – hot days and wet tracks.

Taking her on and going with the darling of Sydney racing, Catkins. I was really impressed by her Emancipation Stakes (1500m) triumph at Rosehill given she was on a very firm track yet still won with ease, beating up the mares as she has done for so long. She just needs that little bit extra to get over the line in the Group l and Joao Moreira is that something extra.

First Seal comes back to the 1600m after running second in the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m), where she looked the winner, but she just didn’t quite finish it off and Fenway beat her to the post. 2000m isn’t her distance, and I am not sure if a mile on a wet track is either, but she has loads of brilliance, and she gets the weight pull due to WFA, and that is vital to her winning chances.

There is a horse here at $151 that can run a cheeky race, Hera. Two starts back she ran in the Coolmore Classic (1500m) and if she had a clear run throughout in the straight, she just about wins. Forget her Emancipation run; pace was slow and she was too far back. Bigger track yes, give in the ground yes, up in distance yes – no way does she deserve to be a $151 chance. Place chance and a must for exotics.

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Selections
Give Catkins (2) strength to win, over First Seal (14), Hera (10) and Telepathic (12).

In other races on the program
. Alittle Loose has upside and should go close in the Fernhill.
. Sadler’s Lake, off an impressive trial win, to run well fresh in the South Pacific.
. Slots looks hard to beat in the Provincial Championship Final.
. Lake Geneva, with normal luck, should win the Percy Sykes.
. Mossfun, back on a wet track, will give a great sight in the Arrowfield Sprint.
. Avoid Lightning to go one better in the Sapphire from 12 months ago.

Good punting guys and gals, and I’ll provide you with a comprehensive wrap of The Championships and Sydney Autumn Carnival on Sunday.

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