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We’ve arrived at the final day of The Championships, and the fields have not disappointed.
The Queen Elizabeth is staking its claim as the second most significant race on the Australian calendar (the Melbourne Cup will never be usurped at the top).
The presence of regular international visitor, three-time Melbourne Cup runner-up Red Cadeaux, certainly enhances the crossover appeal of the race, and two world-class Japanese horses add strength to this year’s edition, while also building up the credibility of the race as a whole.
Contributer heads the betting, and what a turnaround from the Melbourne spring when he’s gone from a battling midfield finish in the Emirates Stakes to comfortably winning three weight-for-age races on the trot, the last two at Group 1 level.
His is the right form, but the beauty if this particular race is that he hasn’t yet faced the next three horses in the market.
The first of the Japanese, To The World, was out-stayed by Hartnell over 2400m in the BMW, but drops back to a distance range where he’s had the most success. He’s drawn to get the run of the race for Zac Purton, who has taken the ride from Nick Hall under controversial circumstances.
Adelaide is first-up from his memorable Cox Plate win, after which Chris Waller took over his care. He faces a tough ask with the preparation of only a couple of moderate trial efforts, but he has won over 2000m off a six week break earlier in his career. This is something else though.
Criterion has been building perfectly to peak for this assignment, with a closing third in the Canterbury Stakes first-up, and falling short by a bare margin in the George Ryder (a race which produced the Doncaster trifecta behind him).
He was an unlucky length and a half behind Adelaide in the Cox Plate, and established his credentials on the world stage with a placing in the Hong Kong Cup in December.
Tosen Stardom and Lucia Valentina had their chance to beat Contributer in the Ranvet, but couldn’t do so, and the same can be said for Royal Descent against Criterion in the George Ryder.
The Melbourne form stood up well on Day 1 of the Championships last week, and Spillway and Happy Trails get to test it out again after running first and third in the Australian Cup at Flemington a month ago. Both are classy 2000m specialists, and are value bets at big odds.
Let’s not forget Happy Trails was about half a length from Adelaide in the Cox Plate, and meets him 2.5kgs better for it.
Red Cadeaux ran well in the Australian Cup too, but 2000m at WFA may not be his thing in Australia. Beaten Up, despite being a Doomben Cup winner, is coming off a career-best run in the BMW, and can be entertained at place odds.
Never let it be said that Anthony Cummings doesn’t like to have a shot at the stumps, with Aomen severely outgraded, and Fiveandahalfstar facing a tough race to find his best form in.
But these two stablemates will control the pace of the race, and Fiveandahalfstar may attempt to sneak off and pinch it when no-one is looking.
The race shapes as a beauty, with the biggest disappointment being that all the main chances are full horses, not geldings, and who knows how many of these we’ll see race in Australia again.
Selections
1. Criterion 2. Contributer 3. Happy Trails 4. Adelaide
The Sydney Cup is a classier affair than we’re probably used to, another beneficiary of the greater prizemoney on offer at the Championships. Congratulations to all involved.
Hartnell was beaten by Contributer first-up, and both of those horses have kept winning since. Rarely has form been more franked than out of that particular Chipping Norton Stakes.
Hartnell is one from one at 3200, and drops a jaw-dropping 5.5kgs from his dominant BMW win. He’d almost have to break down not to win.
Protectionist leads the Melbourne Cup brigade, and is looking to be the first horse to do the Melbourne Cup / Sydney Cup double since Makybe Diva. He’s been running just OK, but who can forget the last time we saw him at 3200m.
Who Shot Thebarman has been flying this prep, off the back of his third in the Melbourne Cup, putting the writing on the board that a win is in his near future. He’d be a clear favourite if not for Hartnell.
We would like to have seen more from Hong Kong visitor Dominant in the Ranvet, but he must be taken seriously if only because of where he’s coming from. While he’s never been seen over two miles, his 2400m record is strong.
Big Memory leads the assault of the tough, hardy stayers. He’s the classiest of that group of horses, won’t know himself with the featherweight of 52kgs. and is the last of the genuine winning chances.
Au Revoir, Akzar, Like a Carousel, Renew, Grand Marshall and Don Doremo would all be winning chances in a weaker year, and any one of them could run a place given the right circumstances.
Selections
1. Hartnell 2. Who Shot Thebarman 3. Big Memory 4. Protectionist
The Queen of the Turf in the Sydney autumn is like the Myer Classic in the Sydney spring, where the mares test themselves out against each other over a classic mile at WFA. Traditionally, every horse gets their chance, and bad luck is rarely a factor.
This race always has a stronger three-year-old representation than its Melbourne counterpart, and we see the filly First Seal at the head of the market as she has been at her previous two runs, both at Group 1 level.
She did everything except win in both the Coolmore and the Vinery Stud, and will be hard to keep out once more. Any of the older mares against her in the Coolmore will be hard pressed to defeat First Seal given the weight swing she’ll enjoy from that race.
Noble Protector ran second to Contributer in the Melbourne spring, and we know how that form has stood up. She’s blown her Victorian opposition away in two starts this prep, and hits this race in devastating form.
Catkins has been doing what Catkins does – winning everything in sight… until she hits Group 1 level. The mile is probably 50 to 100 metres too far for her in this sort of race, but she deserves a win more than any mare.
Cosmic Endeavour is big odds if she can find her Canterbury Stakes winning form, when she defeated Catkins and Criterion. Bonaria won the Myer Classic last November off an eerily similar prep to what she’s having now, beating Catkins (of course) and Sweet Idea.
The Kiwis have made a splash as usual, so Diademe and Sports Illustrated deserve respect. The likes of Diamond Drille, Telepathic, Gypsy Diamond and Amicus have some sort of place claims.
Selections
1. First Seal 2. Noble Protector 3. Catkins 4. Bonaria
The Australian Oaks is the lowest profile Group 1 on the day, but the staying fillies are still racing for a million dollars. The field looks an even one, with some stoutly bred types among them, to offset queries over tackling this sort of distance for the first time.
Only Thunder Lady, second in the VRC Oaks in the spring, has seen 2500m, while Savaria, the New Zealand Oaks winner, and the Bart and James Cummings trained Zarzali have both run, and won, over the 2400m of the Oaks.
Thunder Lady looks to be peaking again at the right time, Savaria will have to peak again after a month between runs, and Zarzali has to respond after a plain run in the Adrian Knox Stakes.
Candelara won that Adrian Knox on Monday, dominating from the front after a positive Hugh Bowman ride, despite having been well handled in that sort of ground previously in her career.
Gust of Wind caught the eye out of the same race, and trainer John Sargent knows how to produce a staying filly at the right time.
The Group 1 Vinery Stakes is the key lead-up race, taken out by Fenway in an upset over First Seal, Thunder Lady, Ballet Suite and Winx.
Fenway beat the other horses on their merits, and we know First Seal form is first class. The other three horses all stormed home behind that quinella, and connections of them all will be thinking that their filly is the one to beat in the big one.
Selections
1. Ballet Suite 2. Thunder Lady 3. Winx 4. Fenway