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Dallas' very own Maverick: The Rajon Rondo conundrum

Rajon Rondo in his time with the Celtics.
Roar Guru
14th April, 2015
4

When analysing who the best point guard in the NBA has been over the past five years, plenty of different players have their advocates, some more than others.

Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Tony Parker, Steve Nash and most recently Russell Westbrook, have all had their supporters – especially the latter, who continues to make an unprecedented run for the MVP award.

However, after Paul’s masterful performance against Westbrook just a few days ago, it is CP3 who continues to assume the unofficial title of the best point guard in the league. Paul’s averages in 2014-15 are marginally up, where he dishes out 10 assists per game and is converting on the three ball 38 per cent of the time (1.6-4.1 attempts per game).

Earlier this season, before Westbrook embarked on his rich vein of form, John Wall was making a legitimate claim to be in the conversation. In essence, there has never been a shortage of elite guards, and this season proves to be no exception.

However, between the brilliant turns and twists of today’s point guards, one is often overlooked.

Enter Rajon Rondo.

Rondo is a controversial player, and rightfully so. One only needs to view the nasty on court incident between Mavericks’ coach Rick Carlisle and Rondo to see why he is a polarising figure.

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Rondo joined Mark Cuban’s side after the Mavericks traded Jae Crowder, Brandan Wright and Jameer Nelson along with a 2015 first round pick and a 2016 second round pick to Boston. A four-time all star and NBA champion (2008), Rondo’s resume is impressive, and it’s why the Mavericks traded the farm to acquire him.

Yet, for much of his career, Rondo has been an enigma. For such a naturally gifted player, none has weaknesses more frustrating.

In theory, a starting five of Rondo, Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler is tantalising. After the acquisition, many cited the move as the final piece needed to put Dallas over the top and to legitimise them as a contender. However, it’s been a stressful time of adjustment for the Mavericks.

Since Dallas acquired Rondo, the Mavericks have posted a fledgling 25-17 record. To further compound the teething process, Dallas have experienced regressions in both offensive and defensive production. In other words, the transition has not been smooth. Because of Rondo’s unique skill set and glaring weaknesses, has the NBA passed Rajon Rondo by? If Dallas is not a good fit for Rondo, where is?

An analysis of Rondo’s game and level of play in Dallas is required to tackle this loaded question.

The Good:
Playmaking

One of the Mavericks’ weaknesses at the beginning of the season was the lack of a pure playmaker. It’s no secret Rondo is an elite facilitator with the ball in his hands. Over his 561-game career, Rondo has totalled 4,694 assists to date, and has amassed 22 triple doubles. The ten-year veteran has compiled four seasons averaging over 10 assists or more, the highest being 11.7 assists per game in ’11-’12.

Rondo is an exceptional ball handler in the pick and roll, which will bode well in the playoffs (Tyson Chandler is elite in the pick and roll). According to NBA.com stats, Rondo is ranked ninth in the league this season for assist opportunities per game (15.3). Because of Rondo’s high usage, his assist percentage is elite.

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Although Rondo’s assist percentage fell below 50 per cent in the months of January and February (45.5% and 46.9%) it’s trending back upwards in the month of March (53.6%).

Interestingly, Rondo’s assist numbers have been down since his arrival in Texas, he averaged just 4.6 per game in February. This can be attributed to sharing the backcourt with Monta Ellis, however in the past five games, Rajon has dished out 8.6 dimes, including 13 in a tight win over Oklahoma City.

It’s a sign that the eccentric guard is finally beginning to settle into the Dallas offense, which is further evidenced by his totals in March (7.5 assists per game). Rondo has also been a boost to Dirk Nowitzki’s offensive output, 10.5 per cent of Rondo’s passes go to Nowitzki, who is shooting 46.5 per cent off those looks.

Defensive prowess
Another cumbersome weakness that plagued the Mavericks for much of last season was defensive intensity. Porous defence on the perimeter allowed opposing teams to exploit the Mavs’ soft interior presence (made up of Dalembert and Nowitzki).

The off-season acquisition of Tyson Chandler added rim protection inside, but Monta Ellis is a below average defender and Chandler Parsons is by no means elite at locking down on the perimeter. Rondo’s defensive pedigree speaks for itself, a two time member of the first all-defensive team (2010-11) and a two time member of the second all-defensive team (2011-12).

Per 100 possessions, Rondo allows less points (102) than Chris Paul (104) and Russell Westbrook (105). This may not seem impressive at first glance, but to put this into perspective, Anthony Davis has a defensive rating over his career of 103. Of course, Davis rotates between two of the toughest positions in the stacked western conference, but the point remains, Rondo is an elite defensive presence.

So far, Rondo is excelling in his role on the perimeter. He’s keeping opponents to just 32.3 per cent on three pointers (2.2% less than league average) and holds his opponents to just 36.7 per cent 15ft or further from the rim.

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X-factor
The determining factor behind Mark Cuban pursuing the four-time all star is his playoff experience and freakish tendency to raise his intensity and production in big games. Although Ellis and Parsons are solid complimentary players, the Mavericks have relied heavily on Nowitzki’s production.

The acquisition of Rondo changes this dynamic. One only needs to look at Rondo’s performance in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Rondo gave LeBron James and the Miami Heat an almighty scare as he compiled a ridiculous statline that consisted of 44 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists and three steals.

If Nowitzki slumps in the playoffs, Rondo is more than capable of taking over, his playoff record indicates he may be the move needed that turns the Mavericks into a legitimate team that can go all the way

The Bad:
Shot Selection

Despite Rondo’s greatness, as analysed above, he’s still flawed. He can’t shoot the basketball.

Despite having a liable jumper, Rondo is an elite finisher inside, which has led resulted in the guard shooting as high as 51 per cent from the floor (09-10). Rondo’s inconsistent jump shot is not a problem that has manifested since the mercurial guard’s arrival in Texas, but nevertheless it’s a glaring weakness in Rajon’s game.

Rondo’s career field goal percentage of 47 per cent is excellent, but this season he’s shooting just 41 per cent from the floor. Why has his efficiency plummeted?

Shot selection.

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As a by-product of the Dallas offense, Rondo is attempting more three pointers a game (1.4 v 0.9) and is making them at an abysmal 13% from the top of the arc. He is shooting 31.6 per cent for the season on triples, which is a small improvement on his career percentage of 26 per cent from down town. Rondo is effective from the left corner, where he shoots 50 per cent from the arc, but his efficiency on three from anywhere else on the floor is below average at best.

Despite Rondo’s increase in three point attempts, that’s not the core root of his decline in efficiency. Of Rondo’s shots this season, 46 per cent of those attempts have come from mid range.

46 per cent.

From the left elbow Rondo runs at about league average (40 per cent-43 per cent) but his efficiency from the right elbow and accompanying baseline’s is cringe worthy. 17 per cent of Rondo’s total shot attempts come from the right elbow, a shot he is burying just 34 per cent of the time. Ironically, Rondo is attacking the rim on just 39 per cent of his attempts, where he converts over 50 per cent of those shots.

Why the change in Rondo’s shot selection? While it is impossible to ascertain the exact reason for Rondo’s questionable shot selection this season, it could be attributed to the guard’s ACL injury which he sustained in 2013 against Miami. It’s theoretical that Rondo’s regression in field goal attempts near the glass is a result of reduced explosiveness and hesitancy to attack the defence, due to fear of re-injury (see Derrick Rose).

This theory has merit as Rondo shot just 40 per cent from the floor in his first season back from surgery (’13-’14).

Free throw percentage
Rondo has always been a mediocre foul shooter, running at just 60.7 per cent from the line over his career. The bad news is however, he’s getting worse. Rondo’s free throw percentage of 31.7 per cent this season is on track to be one of the worst performances from the line in league history.

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Expanding on the point above, he’s connected on just 20 free throws for the entire season. It is clear Rondo has lost confidence at the line, this season he is attempting just 1.9 free throws a game (lowest of his career).

The Ugly:
Attitude

It’s no surprise that Rondo’s fiery attitude on the court boils over at times, and it was on display for all to see during the Mavericks’ home game against the Toronto Raptors in January.

The incident did not bode well for Rondo, who was benched for the rest of the contest and then suspended for one game. Rick Carlisle maintains that the incident was born out of miscommunication and growing pains, but it’s not the first time Rondo’s anger and questionable on court demeanour has gotten the better of him.

In 2012 Rondo remonstrated with Kris Humphries, resulting in an intense scuffle and ejection. In the same year Rondo was promptly ejected after making purposeful body contact with an official. In other words, his altercation with Rick Carlisle was not an isolated incident.

Despite Rondo’s unpalatable shortcomings, his defensive output and elite play making will make him one of those most coveted players in free agency this off-season.

Whether he will re-sign with Dallas remains to be seen, and it will largely hinge on how the Mavericks perform in the playoffs. The talent and skillset is there, but the confounding weaknesses of such a gifted prospect makes Rondo not only an enigma but a conundrum.

His inability to connect from long range and crippling conversion rate at the charity stripe make him a dicey proposition in the playoffs, yet he holds the key for a team that is going nowhere without him. Although the transition has been rough at best, Rondo brings several traits to the table that make the Mavericks a better team, he’s far from a spent force in the league.

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There is hope.

Dallas are enjoying a three-game mini streak, and it’s thanks largely to the play of Rondo, who in that time has averaged over 10 assists a game and played excellent defence. If things continue to progress, the Rondo experiment will prove to be a success, because a guard rotation of Jameer Nelson and Devin Harris was average at a stretch.

The rewards are starting to come through slowly, and with the playoffs just around the corner, the Mavericks are beginning to resemble a legitimate contender. The Mavericks front office will be keeping their fingers crossed that Rondo buys into the system and doesn’t bump heads with Carlisle again, otherwise they can kiss him goodbye in the off-season.

This article first appeared on swingman.com.au

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