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We’ve reached the half way stage of the Super Rugby tournament. The pre-season banter no longer matters and only a few teams are left with a realistic chance of winning the competition.
History has shown us that to win a team must be either first or second at the end of league play. This is due to the travel that teams ranked from third to sixth will be forced to contend with.
In 2015, one of the top two spots is almost guaranteed to be a Kiwi side. The Hurricanes are currently in the best position, but the Chiefs and Highlanders are biting at their heels.
Due to the ranking system, the other side will be the winner of either the Australian or the South African conference. So I thought I’d take a look at the possible players in the race for second spot – although mathematically first spot for one of these teams is still possible.
I’ve narrowed the contenders down to two from each conference. The Brumbies currently top the Australian conference with 25 points, while the Waratahs are still very much in with a shout with 18 points and a game in hand.
In the South African conference, the Bulls are currently top with 24 points and the Stormers just behind with 22 points. I don’t see any other teams having a chance to top their conference although the Rebels, Lions and Sharks will certainly have their part to play in the next weeks when they meet the contenders. So let’s look at the remaining fixture list for these four teams.
Brumbies remaining games
Rebels (H)
Highlanders (H)
Waratahs (H)
Stormers (A)
Lions (A)
Bye
Bulls (H)
Force (A)
Crusaders (H)
Waratahs remaining games
Hurricanes (A)
Rebels (H)
Brumbies (A)
Force (A)
Sharks (H)
Crusaders (H)
Lions (A)
Cheetahs (A)
Reds (H)
Bulls remaining games
Sharks (A)
Stormers (A)
Lions (H)
Bye
Blues (A)
Chiefs (A)
Brumbies (A)
Rebels (A)
Cheetahs (H)
Stormers remaining games
Force (A)
Bulls (H)
Cheetahs (A)
Brumbies (H)
Bye
Rebels (H)
Cheetahs (H)
Lions (H)
Sharks (A)
Each side has eight remaining games, except the Tahs who have no more byes and play nine more matches. For the Brumbies, only three are away, but two of these games are in the Republic. The Stormers also have only three away games left and only one outside South Africa – this weekend’s fixture against the Force.
The Tahs have another five away games to contend with and two of these in the Republic, while the Bulls will be away from their beloved fortress for six of their remaining games, and four of these will be in Australasia!
Based solely on the location of the remaining fixtures, I’d say the Stormers and Brumbies are best placed with Tahs next and the Bulls with the worst possible run in.
A win this weekend for the Stormers will put them in the best position as they will head back to South Africa with only two more away games remaining and five left at Newlands.
Things get even more interesting when we have a look at the scheduled meetings between these four sides. In two weeks the Bulls and Stormers meet in Cape Town for what promises to be a massive fixture.
The Stormers won the first game of the season in Pretoria, but a much improved Bulls side will be eager for revenge. Winning this game will go a long way to helping either side top the South African conference. Then the following week sees the Brumbies host the Tahs.
The Round 6 fixture between these two sides saw a home victory for the Tahs, but on current form a victory for the Brumbies in Canberra could all but wrap up the Australian conference. However, it’s not just about topping your conference, it’s also about beating the other conference.
In this regard the fixtures between the Brumbies and the Stormers at Newlands in four weeks time and then Brumbies versus the Bulls in Canberra a few weeks later may have an even bigger impact.
Outside of these key games a few potential banana skins for all four sides will be crucial to navigate if they hope to top their respective conferences.
The Brumbies have to play the Highlanders and the Crusaders in Canberra, and the Lions in Jo’burg. The Tahs have the Hurricanes in Wellington and the Crusaders in Sydney. The Bulls must still play two games in New Zealand against the ever unpredictable Blues and the dominant Chiefs.
Comparatively, the Stormers are fairly well placed with no remaining fixtures against Kiwi sides. A last round league game against the currently underperforming Sharks will be massive, and will need to be won by the men from Cape Town if they hope to reach a top two position.
So what do you think? Which of these four teams will win the race to second spot? Or do you think an outsider to this group can make it?
My money is on the Stormers, as their make-or-break games against both the Bulls and the Brumbies will be played in Cape Town. Having said that, all these teams still very much control their own destiny, and depending on results I don’t think any side can afford to lose more than one of their remaining fixtures.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.