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Stats that matter: Izzy better than Ben, Charles (or the other Izzy)?

Roar Rookie
15th April, 2015
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The stats that matter - how effective is Israel Folau? (Image. Tim Anger)
Roar Rookie
15th April, 2015
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2327 Reads

Last week I analysed the creative offers in phase play made by Australian fullbacks in the Super Rugby.

I began this process by specifically looking at Israel Folau and the offers he made in phase attack in order to help inform my own coaching.

However, the more I watched him the more I realised that to better understand what he does, it is worth looking at the play of other fullbacks. This week I will compare the creative offers made by the fullbacks from the New Zealand sides who played against those of Israel Folau.

This week I analysed four fullbacks from three matches and the amount of times they received the ball in phase play, from a ruck or maul or from set piece turnover.

I disregarded anytime they got the ball from their own set piece, because these are usually moves created by a coach. I also disregarded anytime the fullback received the ball in a kick return situation because this usually relies on individual creativity to create attacking opportunities.

In confining myself to only phase play I understand there are some limitations to the data. I also realise that having data on one game for each of the New Zealand fullbacks to compare also brings its own restraints. To get a true feel it would be great to continue this over the length of a whole season and compare all players in the back three across all Super Rugby Conferences.

Using the same analysis that I did with the Australian fullbacks, I looked at how often they offered themselves in phase play.

Player Opposition Offers Received Line Breaks Try Assists Try Turn Over Team possession %
Israel Dagg Highlanders 18 15 1 1 0 1 51%
Ben Smith Crusaders 12 10 1 0 1 1 49%
Charles Piutau Brumbies 13 8 1 0 0 0 51%
Totals 43 33 3 1 1 2
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I have credited Israel Dagg with a try assist even though he didn’t touch the ball in try scored by Matt Todd. He did provide a dummy run on the outside of Colin Slade that held the defence up in creating the try in the corner.

Player Opposition Offers Received Line Breaks Try Assists Try Turnover Team Possession %
Israel Folau Stormers 18 12 2 1 0 3 68%
Israel Folau Brumbies 13 9 2 2 1 2 52%
Israel Folau Blues 23 15 4 1 0 2 58%
Totals 54 36 8 4 1 7

It becomes obvious when you look at Israel Folau over his past three matches for the Waratahs that he makes a lot more offers than his New Zealand counterparts. He also has more line breaks and try assists, but I think that this could change if we had more data on the New Zealand fullbacks, especially Dagg and Smith.

However, he receives the ball much less often than the New Zealand fullbacks after making an offer. Why is this so? Is it because as the Waratahs hammer away at the opposition defence Folau loiters near the ball carrier in an effort to receive the ball?

Or do the Waratahs have an attack structure that relies as much on the individual brilliance of players such as Folau?

Setting aside Charles Piutau for the minute and comparing Folau to Dagg and Smith, there are some interesting differences. The first of which is that both Smith and Dagg made numerous offers from turnover ball. Smith made six offers from turn over ball, receiving it each time while Dagg made four offers receiving it each time. Folau across three matches only made one offer after turnover ball.

In my analyses of the fullbacks I also collected data on the running line of the fullback and the type of pass received, be it a longer spiral pass or a shorter pop pass. It is in this data that there is a great difference between Folau and the New Zealand fullbacks.

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Folau across three matches made eight runs where he attacked the inside shoulder of a defender by going straight or running an unders line. Smith made seven runs and Dagg eight on a straight or unders line in one game. What is interesting to note is that the turnovers (knock-ons) Smith and Dagg made both occurred when they were attempting at run an overs line, the same line that Folau runs regularly.

Smith received the ball four (1 in 3) times with a pop pass while Dagg (1 in 2) received eight short pop passes from teammates. Folau across three matches only received the ball ten times, or one in five from short pop passes.

So where does all this data lead? As a coach, what do I want out of my fullback in creating offer from phase play? As Billy Beane, the baseball manager behind sabermetrics, said, “It’s not a matter of whether sabermetrics or statistics have an impact – the challenge is finding the ones that have the strongest correlation.”

I’m still mulling a few things over and searching for the correlations but would love to hear suggestions from fellow Roarers as to what they would like to see the back three offer during phase play.

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