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All Aged Stakes: A historical perspective

Randwick Racecourse (AAP Image/Daniel Munoz)
Roar Guru
16th April, 2015
4

This wonderful old race on the Australian calendar was first staged in 1865, predating the more illustrious Doncaster Handicap – held at the same track and distance – by one year.

Being a weight for age race, it generally attracts a smaller field, but arguably has better quality horses contest it.

In 2004 a decision was made to lessen the distance of this raceback from 1600m to 1400m. I’m not always a fan of tinkering with tradition, but in this case it was a good call: it always seemed a bit strange to hold two Group 1 mile races, at the same Carnival, a week or two apart.

Now it becomes a more logical progression for the sprinters coming from the high class Sprint races at 1200m, The TJ Smith especially. The George Ryder Stakes, once run two weeks prior, now has much less of an influence on the outcome of this race, given it is run a month earlier.

A look at the last 11 winners below gives some indication of the horse required to win. There are some memorable names there, and the vast majority of them had very high winning strike rates.

It is also usually won by in-form horses, with the only exception being last year’s winner, the Japanese mare Hana’s Goal.

Mares actually have an excellent record in this race winning five of the past 11, but none have entered this year.

Age, gender, barrier draw, last three starts (x denotes spell), finishing position in last start race (and distance), with starting odds complete the profile.

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• 2014 Hana’s Goal 5m (6) x06- sixth Doncaster Handicap 1600m $10
• 2013 All Too Hard 3c (7) x11 first Futurity Stakes 1400m (Caulfield) $2.75
• 2012 Atlantic Jewel 3f (1) 1×1 first Sapphire Stakes 1200m $1.20
• 2011 Hay List 5g (7) 212 second TJ Smith 1200m $2.60
• 2010 Hot Danish 6m (7) x12 second TJ Smith 1200m $6
• 2009 Danleigh 5g (4) 1×2 second The Galaxy 1100m $8
• 2008 Racing To Win 5g (7) 412 second George Ryder Stakes 1500m $1.80
• 2007 Bentley Biscuit 5g (3) x41 first TJ Smith 1200m $2.80
• 2006 Paratroopers 3g (8) 012 second George Ryder Stakes 1500m $1.80
• 2005 Shamekha 4m (7) 6×1 first TJ Smith 1200m $3.75
• 2004 Private Steer 4m (3) 231 first Doncaster Handicap 1600m $2

Pertinent statistics follow with a weighting of each (2-3 points) shown in the table below. The horse that accumulates the most points is theoretically the best credentialed to win this year’s edition;

A) 10/11 finished either first or second last start – 3 points
B) 10/11 last raced in a Group 1 race against all ages – 3 points
C) 10/11 were 3-5 years old inclusive – 3 points
D) 11/11 started between barriers 1 and 8 inclusive – 3 points
E) 9/11 had 7-14 days between runs – 3 points
F) 8/11 started $4 or under in the betting – 2 points
G) 7/10 raced in first four horses early – 2 points

Horse A B C D E F G Total
1. Chautauqua 3 3 3 3 2 2 16
2. Dissident 3 3 3 2 11
3. Terravista 3 3 3 2 2 13
4. Lucky Hussler 3 3 3 9
5. Rebel Dane 3 3 3 9
6. Famous Seamus 3 2 5
7. Laser Hawk 3 3 2 8
8. Weary 3 3 6
9. Fontelina 3 3 2 2 10
10 Generalife 3 3 6
11. Shooting To Win 3 3 3 2 11
12. Wandjina 3 1.5 3 2 9.5
13. Scissor Kick 3 3 2 8

Analysis

Chautauqua
Comes out clearly on top historically with his $3 current odds certainly not hindering his cause. At this stage he is the only horse under $4, and if you do like him, you can take heart from the historical data.

No reason to doubt him at all, with the bonus being he has won at 1400m. His only negative might be a propensity to get back in his races, and barrier 1 doesn’t help his cause in that regard.

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He might be able to stay a little bit closer to the leaders this time though, in a race that might not have abundant speed, at a longer distance.

Dissident
Has a definite chance following the same path as All Too Hard did two years ago from the Futurity Stakes at Caulfield. He still lays claim to being the best 1400m-1600m horse at WFA in Australia.

Jim Cassidy gets reacquainted aboard and is unbeaten twice on him at the aforementioned distances. It’s also a bonus that the horse has won a Group 1 race here at this distance already. Definitely a top-three chance from a good barrier.

Terravista
Rates second best and has the advantage over Chautauqua in regard to how close he should be to the lead in this race. His form is good enough, having placed third last start in the TJ Smith – the best recent lead-up race.

He had no luck last start, caught wide in the early stages of that race, but was only beaten two lengths. It’s quite feasible he could reverse that result, from a better barrier in this race, at a distance he has won at.

Being a five-year-old entire, it might have taken him two runs this preparation to reach his peak which might be realised here. A tongue tie has also been added, which could be a positive.

Lucky Hussler
One of the most improved gallopers in the country won his first Group 1 race at WFA over 1200m last start in the William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley. The distance is no problem for him, and either is the Sydney direction.

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His formline through Trust In A Gust last preparation proved to be strong, with that horse beating Dissident in the Group 1 Toorak (albeit in receipt of six kilograms).

Historically he lacks the credentials though, coming from a slightly obscure 21 days ago and drawn wide in this race. He also tends to get back in his races, and he almost certainly will have to do so again in this. His second-up record isn’t as good as his first-up, and three weeks between runs hasn’t proved a great positive in the past (1/4).

No doubt though if he gets an economical run, and is close enough on the turn, his acceleration will make him competitive.

Rebel Dane
Was disappointing in the William Reid behind Lucky Hussler and has failed to win on numerous occasions in WFA races. He isn’t a big horse so perhaps trying to compete with big weights against top class opposition is slightly beyond him?

He is similar to Lucky Hussler, in regard to his second-up record, and too many days between runs. But perhaps the positive for him is returning to Sydney. He has only one win from eight in Victoria on left-handed tracks, but has five wins from 13 in the Sydney clockwise direction.

Famous Seamus
Is a bit of an enigma, and has little going for him despite his last start being in the TJ Smith. It wasn’t a pleasing effort though and he is 0-1-1/7 at this distance.

A bit hard to recommend him from a wide barrier.

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Laser Hawk
Comes from an even more obscure lead-up race than both Lucky Hussler and Rebel Dane, after winning the Newcastle Newmarket at this distance just on a month ago, doing so with a big weight after missing the start. The form out of that race isn’t great though and it was a very weak rendition.

On the positive side he is a half brother to Desert War who won a couple of Group 1 Randwick mile races, and like that horse he can race on or near the pace. He also trialled better than Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick recently and he opposes both here.

Drawn to advantage, he is definitely one of the longer odds hopes of at least filling a place.

Weary
Comes here off an ordinary run in the George Ryder Stakes last start but the form out of that race is very strong. He has very little to recommend him on a historical basis, including a wide barrier.

A return to Randwick might suit though, and despite lacking good recent form you can never underestimate trainer Chris Waller, and his ability to get the best out of any horse. Blinkers go on first time here, and at least he is a WFA winner, unlike quite a few in this race.

Fontelina
Could be a surprise packet coming off a respectable run in the TJ Smith, having only his third run back from a 12-month spell. He is WFA placed, and can race on or near the pace. His third-up record (2/4) is better than his first and second-up statistics (3/16), so an improved showing is on the cards.

Whether he is a Group 1 horse, at 1400m, and at WFA level is probably the question mark, but a win wouldn’t totally surprise at a long price.

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Generalife
Comes off a win in a Group 3 sprint first up, but his last three second up runs haven’t been overly inspiring. He has drawn a bit awkwardly, which isn’t great for him, given his normal racing pattern is to sit midfield. He hasn’t won at Randwick and is possibly better suited at slightly less distance. He is an improver though, and he does seem to prefer racing in the Sydney direction. WFA class is seemingly a big ask for him but we can’t absolutely say he can’t handle it, until we have seen him attempt it.

Shooting to Win
The three-year-old comes off a respectable, if slightly disappointing run in the George Ryder Stakes. But he did sustain a back injury that day, and the blinkers were taken off. I’m not sure why that was the case, but it did seem he lacked responsiveness when asked for his winning effort.

They go back on here, and the form out of that race is very strong. Three of the first first four placed in that race filled the placings in the Doncaster Mile. Criterion, the runner-up, then went on to thrash his high class rivals in the Queen Elizabeth stakes last week. Formlines don’t come much better given he was next placed fifth in the Ryder.

He has drawn perfectly, and is adaptable with his racing pattern. He should get the run of the race, so if he is over his injury concern, he is going to take a lot of beating.

Wandjina
Gets 1.5 points in the table because he did win a Group 1 race last start, albeit against his own age. He is the second of the three-year-olds in this and and has had a stellar Autumn thus far, winning his only two starts in Melbourne.

Given he beat the Doncaster winner quite easily last start, he must be a massive winning chance here, and it does seem he has found a length or two improvement from the Spring.

His preparation isn’t a good fit historically, and he does have to overcome a wide barrier to be successful, but the Waterhouse stable is in fine form, and he should be the outright leader in the race, negating the draw. Hard to ignore.

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Scissor Kick
The third of the three-year-olds, and probably the least fancied. He isn’t much inferior though (if at all), and he is two from two at this track. All of his wins are below 1400m, but his run in the Golden Rose last Spring at this distance was excellent, after a torrid wide run throughout.

Importantly he is four from five jumping from barriers one through four. Barrier 4 is ideal here, but a 56-day break isn’t so encouraging. He has had two barrier trials in preparation, the latest of those being eight days ago. Blinkers go back on, but they didn’t help him at all down the straight at Flemington in the Coolmore last Spring when last applied.

He shouldn’t be twice the price of the other three-year-olds though, and does have a winning chance.

Conclusion
Once you stray from the historical data the race becomes a bit of a minefield, so I’m quite happy to stick with the top picks in the table above.

1. Chautauqua, 2. Terravista, 3. Dissident/Shooting To Win

I suspect the best of the three-year-olds might be Wandjina, who has probably been prepared solely for this race off a Melbourne Autumn campaign.

Dissident does appear to be over the odds, and perhaps the best longshot is Laser Hawk off a very good trial effort, and a win last start.

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Once again an intriguing race that is compulsory viewing for all horse racing devotees!

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