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There is nothing a Monday morning quarterback likes more than to see a side facing a must-win match identify the weaknesses of their opposition, create a simple and smart game plan, which is brutally carried out, to defeat a more favoured opposition.
Michael Cheika has received brickbats this week from this reporter for his unseemly behaviour in confronting referees during a match. But there can be nothing but praise about his talent in getting the Waratahs fired up to play strong shouldered, intelligent, unremitting on attack and defence, and ultimately winning rugby.
Consider the situation facing the Waratahs in their match against the Hurricanes. They were playing the competition leaders on their home ground at Wellington with a record of one win in their last ten matches in New Zealand.
The Hurricanes had won all seven of their matches this season and some of their ensemble play was actually worthy of the ‘sublime’ adjective that the South African commentators too often throw around for some good but not sensational play.
The week before, too, while the Hurricanes were enjoying a bye, the Waratahs had been out-muscled and then out-run by a determined Stormers side that had been blasted away in the first half against the Hurricanes before smashing their way back into the game.
The Waratahs were off their game against the Stormers with the amount of intent they put into their play and with the timing of their crash ball runs and some of their intricate back plays. The Hurricanes had a similar lack of intent and timing issues against the Waratahs.
Was this coincidental? Or is the bye more of an impediment to teams that tend to get into a pattern of playing each week and miss the pattern when there is a break? Possibly the performance of the Hurricanes next weekend against the triumphant Reds (confident once more after a nail-biting victory against the Cheetahs) will provide some clues to answering the question.
Anyway, the game plan devised by Cheika to knock over the Hurricanes involved the Waratahs keeping faith in their ensemble, ball-in-hand game but playing it with more depth on the ball from the runners and more variations from the play-makers, Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale.
The two key figures coming into the line from depth were Will Skelton, the giant second-rower who smashed through the Hurricanes defensive line like a human broad sword, and Israel Folau, playing his best game this season, scything through the Hurricanes tacklers and producing sabre slashing runs that led on one occasion to a try that broke the 19-19 deadlock with 20 minutes of play left.
Against the Stormers, Skelton was comfortably handled, or mishandled, because he took the ball too flat. As soon as he received the pass, several Stormers gang-tackled Skelton and time after time the Waratahs runners were similarly forced back from the tackling assault by the visitors.
On this form, Skelton, who played out the entire 80 minutes, is a certainty to be one of the Wallabies’ second-rowers, probably with Rob Simmons, the best lineout jumper in Australian rugby, as his partner.
I thought the Hurricanes coaching staff missed a trick by not allocating several defenders on Skelton, as the Stormers did. At one stage, Skelton was tackled by TJ Perenara, who copped a knee into his face for his mistake of not following the orthodox method of placing his head behind Skelton’s lumbering body.
This savage Waratahs attack on the Hurricanes by the big forwards, particularly, was maintained throughout the match because Cheika had opted for a six forwards and two backs reserve list. The effect of this option was that the Waratahs were able to use their heavy battalions, with fresh warriors, virtually throughout the match.
This smashing attack play was backed by an equally smashing defensive system, notably involving a rush defence and gang tackling any likely Hurricanes runner. The Waratahs attempted a massive 189 tackles and even most of the 38 misses were effective because they involved Waratahs players flying into their tackles (one of Wycliff Palu’s efforts would have decapitated a Hurricanes runner if he had hit!), which forced evasive action that disrupted the flow of the Hurricanes’ attacks.
This high-pressure attacking-defence spotlighted a weakness in the play of Beauden Barrett (and all the other notable New Zealand No. 10s with the exception of Lima Sopoaga) and that is their static receiving of passes from their halfback.
Barrett does not run on to the ball. As a result, the Waratahs could target the runners next to him for their massive tackles. As Cheika explained, this sort of attacking-defence needs players like Skelton holding their inside line as the faster tackles rush up.
Occasionally, the Hurricanes, especially with Ma’a Nonu, were good enough to get behind the Waratahs’ rush. But there was some splendid scrambling when this happened, which actually won the game for the Waratahs.
Early on, flanker Ardie Savea made a break that his more famous brother Julian would have been proud of and bolted away for a try. Although he was clear of any tacklers in the Waratahs’ in-goal area, Kurtley Beale kept on with his chase. Savea carelessly or perhaps feeling some slight pressure planted the ball on his foot before losing control.
The mistake was not obvious, except to Beale. He appealed to the referee Glen Jackson and the replay showed that Savea had bombed a certain seven points for the Hurricanes.
Going into the round, the Waratahs were on 18 points and the Brumbies were on 25 points. A loss by the Waratahs (which most expected) and a win by the Brumbies (which most expected) would have probably busted the Waratahs’ hopes of back-to-back Super Rugby wins.
Now we have the situation where the Waratahs (23) are within striking distance of the Brumbies (26) for the vital position of top team in the Australian Conference.
The top team in each conference has a home final. But only the top two teams, if they win their playoff finals, are guaranteed further home finals.
So the easiest way to win the grand final is to have home playoffs right through. This means, in effect, not only winning the conference but being one of the top two teams in points gained throughout the season.
Right now (but it is important to remember it won’t end up this way) the table reads like this: Hurricanes 33, Chiefs 32, Bulls 28, Highlanders 28, Stormers 26, Brumbies 26, Waratahs 23.
The Waratahs have moved from tenth place to seventh place. They are within striking distance of the Brumbies. But either one of these teams will have to start winning virtually all of their remaining matches to end up ahead of the winners of the South African and, particularly, the New Zealand conferences.
Both the Stormers and the Bulls look like finals teams, with the Stormers having the advantage of playing the rest of their matches in South Africa. The Bulls are yet to travel out of South Africa. So next weekend’s match between these two teams at Newlands (the Stormers’ home ground) is going to be crucial to how the South African Conference goes.
Things can change so much in a week at this stage in the Super Rugby tournament. Next weekend, the Brumbies play the Highlanders in a must-win match for both sides.
Last season the Highlanders made the final six only to be eliminated immediately by the Sharks. They are a much better side this year than last year, with a stronger pack and more mature back line. Coach Jamie Joseph has to make a decision, however, about resting his brilliant All Blacks, the two Smiths (Aaron and Ben) and Malakai Fekitoa.
He is going to play them in South Africa, so he probably won’t play them against the Brumbies. Playing an under-strength side against the Brumbies at Canberra is asking for trouble.
The problem for the Brumbies against the Rebels was that they were without their key players Scott Sio, Matt Toomua, Tevita Kuridrani, Nic White, Jesse Mogg and James Dargaville. And it showed against a strong willed and well coached (Tony McGahan take a bow!) Rebels side.
Coach Stephen Larkham says he has no option but to play the youngsters Nigel Ah Wong, Lausii Taliauli and Michael Dowsett (who I thought was more than adequate at halfback with his sharp passing) against the Highlanders. But he is hopeful of having Mogg, Kuridrani, White and Dargaville to back them up for Friday night’s match.
There have been times when the Brumbies have looked like champions this season, and other times when (to put it mildly) they have looked anything but champions. If the Brumbies can pull off a win against the Highlanders then there is the strong possibility of two Australian teams in the final six.
I expect the Waratahs, too, to beat the Rebels at Sydney on Saturday night. They are in a similar situation to that of last season when they lost early matches before making an unbeaten run to win the Super Rugby final.
The only team in front of them that you can comfortably say will certainly be in the finals, and probably ahead of them, are the Chiefs. I reckon the Crusaders are finished. The Sharks are struggling. And the teams around them, and behind, can be written off as finals contenders.
The Hurricanes need to show that their careless performance against the Waratahs was a one-off, although the buffer of points they have accumulated should get them into the finals, even if they concede a couple of defeats.
The Highlanders are finally playing out of New Zealand and this will test whether they are the real deal.
In the end, though, teams make their own fortune. The Waratahs have put themselves into seventh position on the table with plenty of matches left to play. I reckon they will make the six from here. But they really need to be the top Australian side.
The Waratahs have started the season slower than a favourite should and they need a strong back-end to the 2015 tournament. The performance against the Hurricanes suggests to me, at least, that they have another fast-finishing run in them.