The turbulence of free agency is something AFL fans are not used to. Fans and clubs of other sports are used to it. NRL fans are becoming at ease with the unrestricted movements of its stars.

In the United States, we have seen the movements of athletes within their four major sports become the dominating narrative. LeBron James (NBA) and Peyton Manning (NFL) movements testify to this. Football fans of Europeans teams are also understanding of the business side of sports as teams acquire players for disproportional amounts of money.

AFL fans are still developing this maturity. The existence of free agency in the AFL is redefining the meaning of loyalty. But why should AFL players be loyal. Young professionals around Australia are more than willing to move companies, cities or countries in order to add another 10 per cent to their pay packet.

Why are AFL players scorned of this freedom? When Lance Franklin in 2004 was drafted pick five by Hawthorn, why was there this expectation that Buddy should devote his whole his 20’s and early 30’s to a team named Hawthorn who wore brown and gold stripes and was located 3,400km from his Perth home?

Each year since the inclusion of the Gold Coast into the AFL there was been speculation surrounding player movements. In 2010, it was Gar Ablett Jnr, in 2011 it was Tom Scully and Travis Cloke. In 2013 it was Lance Franklin.

This year’s winner of the 2015 ‘microscope-over-press-conference-heard-he-broke-up-with-his-girlfriend-heard-he-sold-his-pub-saw-him-with-an-real-estate-agent-doesn’t-like-his-coach-another-club-recruited-his-brother-dad-is-a-recruiting-officer-more-media-oppurtunities-wants-to-go-home’ award is Patrick Dangerfield.

Ian Goodall: “Ta-Dah, Patrick well done on the award, it’s well deserved.”

Patrick Dangerfield: “Thanks Ian, I’ve worked really hard at creating speculation about my future”

Goodall: “No doubt, can you tell me how you created speculation about your future?”

Dangerfield: “Well first things first, it’s important that you get drafted by an interstate team, to create the Go Home factor, that’s important.

“Then you want saturate yourself within the club, be a great leader and player, and give the illusion that you have subscribed to the club’s motto and culture. You want to endear yourself to fans, become enthusiastic and likeable, kick important goals, maybe do a couple of drive-time radio segments, and maybe write an insightful columns for the local paper.”

Goodall: “Yeah, insightful, it seems like a big plan?”

Dangerfield: “It has been Ian, I got drafted by the Crows in ah… I think 2007 and it’s been a long plan and when the Crows offered me a new contract, the prospect of creating unmanageable speculation within AFL community was too much for me to pass up.

I simply said “I’m putting off contract talks until the end of the season”.

It was extremely proud moment for me and my family. In fact, we had a party, Gaz, Trav and Skulls were all there. They gave me some words of advice, Travis recommended to me going on The Footy Show, which works a gem in terms of creating uncertainty apparently. We made a crow piñata and placed $100 notes in it.

We had The Apprentice theme song on, you know that song “money, money, money, money – money”. Karmichael Hunt and Buddy then rocked up and I don’t remember the rest.

Goodall: “Well, thanks for your time Patrick, congratulations on the award and good luck in the future.”

Dangerfield: “Not a problem, and to all those Crows fans out there. I’m looking forward to giving my all this season.”

Dangerfield winks at Goodall, Goodall finger-pistols back at Dangerfield: “Still got it Paddy.”
Dangerfield belly rubs Goodall: “Never lost it mate.”

Fin.

At the end this year’s season, let’s say Dangerfield does the whole LeBron James “I’m coming home” thing, leaves Adelaide to play for Geelong.

Just quietly, this scenario looks likely at the moment. Adelaide will end up with a compensation pick, probably late first round.

Crows fans will cry, undercompensated and Dangerfieldless, the future for the Crows will look bleak. But with Dangerfield gone, the Crows will have room in the salary cap and will have an opportunity to sign another star.

When Eddie Betts left Carlton for the Crows in free agency in 2013, Carlton supporters didn’t cry, Carlton signed Dale Thomas from Collingwood instead.

Lance Franklin leaves for Sydney, Hawthorn get Ben McEvoy, Jonathon O’Rourke, and James Frawley and still won the flag.

Free agency is good for teams acquiring talent, but even better for teams losing talent. When you trade, you have to succumb to the best offer possible, but it might not fit your club.

Losing a player to free agency allows you to sign players who might fit your club better than the players you would trade for. Losing great players is inevitable.

The five best footballers I’ve seen, I’ve seen not you, me, (born in 1988) are in order: Wayne Carey, Gary Ablett Jnr, Chris Judd, Lance Franklin and Tony Modra.

They all have one thing in common; they all played for two clubs. They all had a highly-touted and analysed trades or free agency events in their careers. Just have a look at their Wikipedia pages, it says so.

Franklin departure from Hawthorn has been a blessing in disguise, the Hawks have gathered talent that fits their club’s future needs. It has also allowed Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson to operate a more democratic and diverse forward line.

Thing may have not been as sweet for the Hawks if the AFL operated under its dark-aged shackled trading rules.

This is what would have happened with the old rules.

1. Franklin goes to Hawthorn “I want to be traded to Sydney, if you don’t trade me to Sydney, I will walk out and enter the draft”.

2. Hawthorn go to Sydney, “Franklin wants to go to you guys, what have you got?”

3. Sydney giggle and whisper in each other’s ear. “We can really screw Hawthorn over on this, Buddy really wants to come here, we’ve been talking to him for 12 months now, he’s won Hawthorn two premierships, he owes the Hawks nothing, he would walk out. He’s that desperate to get up here. But’s let’s not be that big of douche. We still want him, and if he goes into the draft he goes to GWS and we don’t want that, so let’s give them an offer that they’ll accept so Buddy won’t feel bad. Almost what Carlton did to West Coast so Chris Judd didn’t feel bad”

Sydney turn to Hawthorn with a subtle grin, “ah, how about Shane Mumford and a second round draft pick”

4. Hawthorn – “What?!? Please!, Be reasonable”

5. Sydney – “Take it or watch him walk”

6. For some reason in the corner of the room is an iPhone dock, a Sydney executive walks over to the iPhone and plays Paul Kelly’s To Her Door and then sits back down.

7. “They got married early, never had no money…”

8. Hawthorn start crying. A Sydney executive leans over the table. He gently and kindly pushes the paperwork finalising the trade towards the Hawthorn executive. “It’s okay to cry, these thing happen, but it’s important to do the right thing”

9. Hawthorn turn to Franklin: “Can’t we work this out?”

10. Franklin: “I’ve made my mind up Hawthorn”

11. Hawthorn: “But I made you so happy, we had such great times, we were winning premierships, we made you highest paid player at club, I thought we had something special”

12. Franklin: “I need something different in my life, and yes – we did have some good times and you did make me happy, but I need something different in my life and… (Franklin looks up, he swallows his Adam’s apple and then looks back at Hawthorn) you can’t provide that”

Wow. That was brutal, divorces can be tough. But that was an AFL trade?

In this situation Sydney has all the leverage in the negotiations and can keep Hawthorn hostage to Franklin’s demands. But with free agency, the player dictates the terms.

When Franklin left for Sydney using free agency, there was an illusion that Franklin left Hawthorn empty handed.
In the months prior to Franklin’s departure, Hawthorn had been rearranging their salary cap to offer Buddy $4.5 million over four years ($1.125 million per year).

Franklin declined the Hawks offer and he also declined Greater Western Sydney’s offer of $12 million over six years ($1.5 million per year and another $500,000 per year in marketing allowance).

He accepted the Swans offer of $10 million over nine years. Once Franklin left Hawthorn, a $1.125 million hole opened up in the Hawks list.

This allowed them to sign James Frawley, $2.2 million over four years ($550,000 per year). It also allowed the Hawks to pick up Ben McEvoy in a trade with St. Kilda and Jonathon O’Rourke from GWS.

So in the last 12 months, Hawks have gathered Frawley, McEvoy and O’Rourke while losing Franklin. Franklin was always going to leave Hawthorn in 2013, but this result has to be considered as the best possible outcome.

Consider this scenario:

Imagine if McEvoy, Frawley and O’Rourke played for Sydney in 2013 and there’s no free agency.

1. Franklin goes to Hawthorn “I want to be traded to Sydney, if you don’t trade me to Sydney, I will walk out and enter the draft’.

2. Hawthorn go to Sydney, “Franklin want to go to you guys, what have you got?”

3. Sydney reply, “We’ll give you McEvoy – a top 10 ruckman, Frawley – top 10 defender and O’Rourke, a No.2 draft pick from last year’s draft.

4. Hawthorn realise it’s the best deal possible. They get replacement for the ageing David Hale, replace Brian Lake and get a nice future prospect. Best deal possible. “Nice doing business with you Sydney” Deal done.

That wouldn’t have happened. Sydney would have known they have the leverage, because Franklin could simply walk out of the club. Sydney would have played the situation, lowballed Hawthorn and offered lesser valued assets. Port Adelaide learnt this lesson in 2003 when Nick Stevens wanted to leave the Power for a Victorian club.

Contract negotiations between Stevens and the Power broke down, Stevens entered the pre-season and signed with Carlton.

Then Port Adelaide coach was hard headed about the Power’s principles, Port were a newly established team and void of identity, and at that point, established an identity – you’re either with us or against us. That’s all very good, but when you consider the Power could have got a second or third round draft pick for Stevens, swallowing your pride can have it benefits.

In October 2013, post-Franklin-to-Sydney, AFL clubs all joined in choir like chorus to complain about two things, the Cost of Living Allowance (COLA) which Sydney used to acquire Franklin and free agent compensation.

Hawthorn were given pick 19 in the 2013 draft as compensation to Franklin’s departure. This was seen as unfair because Buddy’s had signed a nine year contract and his obvious talent. What wasn’t highlighted was the free salary cap space that Hawthorn earned in Franklin’s absence.

Hawthorn, the reigning premiers, all of sudden had around $1 million in cap space to play with. Imagine how jealous the other 17 clubs were – Hawthorn were winnings flags and having salary cap problems. You know those “we have a spare millions dollars to spend, what do we do?” problems.

At the moment, The AFL has a $10 million dollar salary cap. Clubs are forced by the AFL to pay in between 95 and 105 per cent of the cap.

Last year they introduced a rule where if a club pays its players $9.5 million (95 per cent of cap) that in of two years preceding they can make up that space by overpaying 2.5 per cent in each year.

That’s a great idea and logical, but let’s look at St. Kilda.

Other than Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna and maybe David Armitage, how is St. Kilda paying its players $9.5 million per year. They have to be drastically over-paying its players to achieve the minimum payments. Here’s an idea, trade cap space as they do in American sports. Here’s how it works.

1. St. Kilda realise they’re going to be bad for at least three years while the wait for their high draft picks to mature.
2. They recognise another a team that is:
• Entering a Premiership window (Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide)
• In the middle of a Premiership window (Hawthorn, Sydney)
• Exiting a Premiership window (Fremantle, Geelong)

3. St. Kilda approach these teams and start auctioning off $1 million in salary cap space to the highest bidder.

4. For example, let’s say Fremantle in 2014 ship pick 13 and 34 to St. Kilda for $1 million of cap space each year over three years. Fremantle for the next three years would have $11 million salary cap. This would allow Fremantle to:
• Re-sign Aaron Sandilands, Nathan Fyfe and Michael Barlow comfortably
• Make free-agent/trade plays at James Frawley, Patrick Ryder, Harry Taylor etc.

Who and why would Fremantle or St. Kilda say no? Fremantle are desperate to get Matthew Pavlich a flag before he leaves.

Ross Lyon wants to shut up everyone who says he is choker and yes – trading draft picks can back to haunt some clubs, but if you’re Fremantle and this move helps you win your first flag, who cares? St. Kilda won’t say no, it’s more draft picks for them and there is no realistic prospect of them being a contender in the next three years anyway.

It would allow the Saints to pay its players more reasonable wages and escape the culture of over-paying players. Two rules that would be implemented is a restriction or a maximum to the years and amount of cap space that you could loan out to other clubs.

This would prevent the club leasing the cap space from shooting themselves in the foot.

There is this scene in Moneyball, a 2011 baseball movie about the 2002 Oakland A’s revolutionising baseball and sports with statistical analysis. Jonah Hill’s character Peter Brand says to Brad Pitt’s character Billy Beane about losing their best player Johnny Damon,

“I respect you, Mr. Beane, and if you want full disclosure, I think it’s a good thing that you got Damon off your payroll. I think it opens up all kinds of interesting possibilities.”

Those interesting possibilities have served Oakland well, they also served Hawthorn well. Adelaide fans, don’t sweat this, it all works out, and more likely, it will be a blessing disguise. We just need to work out what the disguise is.