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In among all this talk about how many teams Australia can or can’t sustain, one nagging little question sits just off the periphery.
It’s there for anyone that wants to contemplate it, and it’s certainly there for those who see the bigger picture, but it’s all just far enough away for the contractionists and the Mark Ellas of the world to ignore if they just keep looking dead straight ahead.
What if the new Australian teams actually come good?
It’s very easy and convenient to say ‘Australia can only carry three teams’ or ‘everyone should supply the Reds and Waratahs’ while the Western Force and Melbourne Rebels are battling, but as soon as either team starts putting together some results, the arguments start falling apart.
And just as we didn’t hear much along these lines last year when the Force had a solid year, there have been more than a few signs this year that the Rebels are building the foundations for what could be a very handy side in the not-too-distant future.
Their win over the shaky-looking Brumbies on Saturday night is now the Rebels’ second on the hop, the first time they’ve done that in nearly two years and only the fifth time in their 70+ game Super Rugby existence they’ve done it all.
More importantly, this was another win on the road, the third away win of their four in 2015. Before this season, you didn’t need a second hand to count Rebels’ away wins.
They still sit in 11th spot overall, and whether they can emulate the Force’s season from last year is now completely up them.
Certainly, they’re playing well enough, but their run home is not easy: Waratahs (away), Chiefs, Blues, Reds (A), Stormers (A), Sharks (A), Bulls, Force.
There are four games in that group that they should win, and one or maybe two more that they might be capable of springing a surprise in. Their best ever season was five wins in 2013, and it would be a massive disappointment from here if they couldn’t eclipse that by some margin.
I’m not going to go as far as saying that they’re suddenly a smokey for the finals. Despite eight wins putting three teams into the six last year, I think the mark will be more like 10 or 11 wins this season.
But the Rebels showed on Saturday night that they are a team capable of playing smart rugby.
Tony McGahan has improved their defence immensely in his two seasons in charge. In 2013, the Rebels conceded 32.2 points and 4.1 tries per game, where in 2014 – McGahan’s first season at the helm – this came down to 28.8 points and 3.1 tries per game.
In their eight games this season, they’re conceding just 20.5 points and 1.2 tries per game. In fact, of all the sides outside the top six, the Rebels have the best defensive record. They’ve conceded fewer points than two of the top six teams, too.
This was all very evident on Saturday night. Whenever the Brumbies did find themselves in the Rebels’ 22, they found a near impenetrable defensive line. This only intensified when the Rebels found themselves on their own try line, and the only the time the Brumbies did breach came on the back of 19 phases that had made several attempts to cross both to the left and right of the posts.
Even with issues with the own lineout, the Rebels managed to pinch one of the Brumbies’ throws. At scrum time, they were rock solid and even forced penalties, with Paul Alo-Emile having a field day at JP Smith’s expense.
Toby Smith had little trouble with Ben Alexander, and between the Rebels props, they were rewarded with the appearance of the Brumbies bench front row in the 53rd minute. Smith and hooker Pat Leafa played the full 80 minutes; something you don’t see very often these days, even less in matches full of scrums and breakdown work played in pretty consistent rain.
At the breakdown, they were simply superb. They forced turnovers and penalties of the Brumbies on attack, and more often than not at crucial times. The Rebels’ defence also pressured a lot ordinary options from the Brumbies, with the Rebels’ kicking game aided so many easy exits out of their half over through the game.
There simply aren’t enough superlatives for the performances of Sean McMahon, Scott Fuglistaller, and Scott Higginbotham. And I’ll throw Jordy Reid and Colby Fainga’a into that too, who when they came on for Fuglistaller and Higginbotham respectively, simply carried on at the same benchmarks left for them.
And with Luke Jones and Lopeti Timani in the mix too, the Rebels effectively played with a five-man backrow. Very, very effectively indeed.
McGahan’s rebuild of the Rebels is progressing well. The defence is very, very good, and their breakdown presence in 2015 is the perfect base from which to start adding some attacking spark.
And in halves Nic Stirzaker and Jack Debreczini – who seriously has the best tactical kicking game of any young Australian flyhalf I’ve seen come through in the last five or so years – the Rebels have a couple of gems who are learning how the manage games, and when to take opportunities.
Stirzaker has to be a smokey for the Wallabies’ Rugby World Cup plans; after Nick Phipps, he might be the scrumhalf in Australia best suited to Michael Cheika’s attacking philosophy.
They’re a smart team, the Melbourne Rebels; they know how to play within their limitations, can execute well, and on their day can beat anyone. They’re on track to have more ‘days’ this season than any of their previous four.
And that very smart team would either cease to exist, or be consigned to reserve grade status if the cynics got their way. With the way the Rebels have improved their play even just this year, this kind of thinking doesn’t seem so smart to me at all.