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The Carlos Cup: The trophy you've never heard of
Dasher
Roar Guru
21st April, 2015
16
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The Waratahs battle the Reds this weekend for the Carlos Cup. (photo: Ash Knight)
Dasher
Roar Guru
21st April, 2015
16

The Carlos Cup is a hypothetical challenge-defence rugby trophy developed in a similar manner to New Zealand Rugby’s 114-year-old Ranfurly Shield.

The current holder puts the trophy up for grabs in every Super Rugby match it plays (either home or away) and the winner then remains or becomes the rightful holder of the Carlos Cup until its next match.

To the more fanatical rugby enthusiasts, this system also parallels the Raeburn Shield – a hypothetical trophy, yet very worthy idea, for international rugby matches.

The current trophy holders are the Waratahs, who recently wrested it from the Hurricanes in that thrilling game in Wellington last week.

Although the Hurricanes had been undefeated in 2015, they had to wait until Round 6 to take it from the Highlanders. And before that, the Reds and Force had held it, despite their lowly positions on the ladder.

The Waratahs carry the trophy into their game against the Rebels in Sydney this weekend but, in a bizarre twist, the Waratahs have never successfully defended the trophy. They may have won it seven times but they have immediately lost it the following game they have played. So the game this weekend carries perhaps a smidge more significance than a standard local derby.

The name of the trophy is credited to Carlos Spencer, the then Blues flyhalf, who dominated the early seasons of the new southern hemisphere rugby competition. The Blues were the first holders of the trophy and are still considered one of the most successful Carlos Cup participants.

Just as the Raeburn Shield is not officially recognised by World Rugby, the Carlos Cup is not recognised by SANZAR. However, it is an initiative SANZAR ought to consider. The additional level of interest generated in the week-to-week games would significantly outweigh any additional effort SANZAR may have to put in.

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Otherwise pedestrian games would have more at stake and more for the players and fans to get behind, not to mention the advertising, the banter and the extra column inches pseudo-journalists like yours truly could generate.

Beginning with the very first game of Super Rugby in 1996 – played between the Blues and Hurricanes at Arena Manawatu Stadium in Palmerston North, New Zealand – the Cup has changed hands 103 times across Australia, New Zealand and South Africa over the last 20 seasons.

It changed hands ten times in 2011 – more so than any other season – but was spread out over 20 weeks, and in 2001, the Cup changed hands every other week – seven times in 13 rounds. Yet both records might be smashed this season with the Carlos Cup having changed hands five times already.

Every team, including the latest spawn, the Cheetahs, Force and Rebels, have each had a turn with the trophy. Four of the six now defunct South African teams and the Southern Kings are the only sides to have played one of the many formats of Super Rugby, and not held it at some stage.

Northern Transvaal and Natal held it for one miserly week each before relinquishing it, but at least they did hold it once. (Side note: In a way I’m grateful that the Carlos Cup didn’t end up in one of those teams’ hands before they disbanded otherwise it could have scuppered the Cup altogether)

More often than not, each year’s Super Rugby champion also ends up with the Carlos Cup, but in four intriguing circumstances in its 20-year history, this hasn’t been the case.

In 1999, although the Reds were minor premiers and would lose only three regular season games, they lost a telling game to the Stormers who then, almost inexplicably, lost to the cellar-dwelling Lions in the last round.

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This amounted to the Lions holding the cup for 301 days – and distorting the stats – until it was taken off them in Round 3 of the 2000 season by the Waratahs.

Similarly in 2006, the Crusaders were cruising through the season and lost to the Stormers, who lost to the Sharks and they didn’t qualify for the finals. Similar stories account for the Carlos Cup success the Brumbies and Blues had in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

The three statistical aspects of the Carlos Cup which are the best indicators of who is the historically greatest holder of the Cup are: ‘date last held’, ‘total time held’ and ‘longest streak’. ‘Total title defences’ and ‘most consecutive title defences’ are closely correlated with ‘total time held’ and ‘longest streak’ respectively, but paint the picture slightly differently.

If a team last held the Carlos Cup ten years ago, it can show that the team got lucky in a period of good form but hasn’t returned to the lofty heights of yesteryear. A good example of this is the Lions. The Lions have not been trophy holders since 2001. In contrast, the Crusaders have won it regularly since 1996.

‘Total time Hheld’ is not just an indicator of a team that has won the trophy many times, it is an indicator of a good team in general. As the season draw is fixed and unchangeable, a Carlos Cup challenge cannot be arranged. The Cup can bypass a team simply by luck of the draw.

Therefore when a challenge comes along, a good team ought to win it regardless and gain the Cup as a bonus. The Brumbies are a good example of this as their win-loss ratio has been consistently high throughout the seasons and they have won the equal-most title challenges.

But which aspect is the strongest indicator of the best Carlos Cup winning team? There were zero Cup exchanges in 1997. The Blues were simply too good and went the entire season undefeated, running up an unmatched 12 consecutive title challenges and holding the Cup for an astonishing 644 days from 1996 to 1998.

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By that token, ‘longest streak’ is the best indicator of the best team and one of the underlying reasons why a Blues player’s moniker adorns the trophy.

Returning to the effect the draw has on the chances teams can claim the Cup, the Brumbies may be looking forward to challenging the Waratahs in Round 12 to claim it. But if the Rebels take the Cup from the Waratahs this weekend, then the soonest the Brumbies could expect to vie for the trophy would be in Round 16 when they play the Chiefs. And even that is uncertain.

Such is the nature of this system, it is still possible for all 15 teams to hold the Cup at some stage this season. However, the likelihood of some teams holding it – when they do and how long for – is better than others.

Running simulations of the remaining 51 games suggests that the Waratahs are much more likely than the Sharks to hold the Carlos Cup before the regular season finishes, but as a strange quirk, the Rebels have the highest chance of all teams due to the number of times they could face a potential holder in the final eight rounds.

An alternative system was discussed whereby only the holder’s home games, instead of all games, would be considered for the Carlos Cup. Adopting that system has profound impacts on the historical record. The trophy would have changed hands only 36 times and the current holders would be the Bulls, but the general feel of the statistics would remain unchanged.

The usual suspects still top the stats and the Blues still have that astonishing unbeaten record.

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