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AD Hollindale Stakes 2015: Historical preview

Green Moon is running here, but Phil thinks he won't fire a shot .AAP Image/Darren McNamara
Roar Guru
23rd April, 2015
3

This race, and this Gold Coast race meeting basically signal the start of the Winter Carnival in Brisbane, even though it is still Autumn.

It was originally known as the Southport Cup, but adopted the name of the former Gold Coast Turf Club Chairman Alan Hollindale in 1992. He stood as Chairman for over 20 years, and was the creator of the now famous Magic Millions .

The race is a Group 2 event run over 1800m, and under WFA Condtions. There are some quite famous names on the honour roll, including dual winners Rough Habit & Shogun Lodge. But maybe the most famous of all was Caulfield and Melbourne Cup winner Might And Power who won this event in 1998.

It’s intriguing that in the first 23 years of this race, only one female horse had been able to win (Melora in 1999), but the last three winners have all been Mares! Can they make it four in a row this year?

Below are the last 12 winners of the race with relevant statistics, including age, gender, barrier draw and starting price.

2014 Streama 5m (4) $4.25
2013 Lights of Heaven 5m (9) $3.25
2012 Shez Sinsational 4m (13) $5
2011 My Kingdom of Fife 6g (7) $3.25
2010 Metal Bender 4g (6) $5.50
2009 Fulmonti 6g (2) $21
2008 Scenic Shot 5g (4)$3.25
2007 Coalesce 6g (10) $13
2006 Above Deck 4g (10) $5.50
2005 Platinum Scissors 5g (10) $10
2004 This Manshood 6g (3) $6.50
2003 Bush Padre 5g (2) $4.75

The most relevant stats are shown below and weighted (1-3 points) to be shown in table below;

A) 12/12 aged 4-6 – 3 Points
B) 12/12 finished in first 5 placings last start – 3 Points
C) 9/12 had 14 days between runs – 2 Points
D) 8/12 at least placed at WFA level beyond 3-year-old age – 2 points
4/12 won to Group 3 Level above 3yo age – 1 point

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E) 7/12 came out of a 2000m race last start – 1.5 points
F) 8/12 had last run interstate – 2 points, 6/12 from Sydney – +1 point (Maximum 3 pts)
G) 10/12 were in first five early stages of race – 2 (Bigger field here maybe not so relevant)
H) 9/12 started $6.50 or less – 2 points (starting odds this year my best guess given early odds, and presence of emergencies high up in market)
I) Last 3 races won by Mares – 1 Point (for any mare this year)

HORSE A B C D E F G H I TOTAL
1. GREEN MOON 2 2
2. FORETELLER 2 1.5 3 2 8.5
3. PRECEDENCE 2 2 4
4. MORIARTY 2 3 2 7
5. HAWKSPUR 3 3 2 1.5 3 2 2 16.5
6. BANCA MO 3 2 2 2 9
7. AOMEN 2 1.5 3 6.5
8. HOOKED 3 1 3 2 2 11
9. SIR MOMENTS 3 3 2 8
10. I’M IMPOSING 1 3 4
11. RUDY 3 3 1 3 2 11
12. ESCADO 3 3 1 1.5 2 2 12.5
13. SILENT ACHIEVER 2 3 2 1 8
14. ARABIAN GOLD 3 1 3 2 2 1 12
15. LEEBAZ 3 3 2 1.5 3 2 2 16.5
16. WISH COME TRUE 3 3 2 2 10
17. PORNICHET 3 3 1 3 2 2 14
18. HOPFGARTEN 3 3 2 2 10

There are two horses quite clearly the best historical fits here, HAWKSPUR and LEEBAZ. PORNICHET rates third best, but as third emergency he looks very unlikely to start. ESCADO comes in fourth (could in effect rate second), and he is the one that seems serious overs in the market at $41.

Form Analysis:
1. GREEN MOON – Hard to find too many positives for him given his last win was in the Melbourne Cup of 2012. That was 14 starts ago, and his first up run recently was nothing to get excited about.

Interesting his clockwise direction form reads 3/5, whilst his anti clockwise form reads 4-4/29. Given that statistic he is a sneaky chance.

2. FORETELLER – His last two runs have been poor by his standard, and he definitely needs to lift a bit to win. Not sure the 28-day break is a positive, but the 1800m of this race is actually his best trip (4-1/9).

A switch to Queensland might bring out the best in him (ran second in this race two years ago), and his awkward barrier is more or less negated by his get back racing pattern. Expect an improved showing from him, but not confident he will win.

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3. PRECEDENCE – Really is a veteran now at nine years of age but it seems age hasn’t really wearied him, given he ran a decent sixth in the Melbourne Cup last year.

He came off a similar break last year to run third (Heavy track not his favoured surface) in this race when fresh so no reason why he couldn’t do similar again. He has drawn barrier 15 though so it’s going to take a great ride to make him competitive. Place chance only in my opinion.

4. MORIARTY – Another horse coming into this on the fresh side, coming off an average run in the George Ryder Stakes. That has been a strong form race though and he has raced well in Queensland the past two seasons. In 2013 he won the Brisbane Cup and finished runner up in that race last year. He ran a strong fifth in this race last year, beaten less than 2 lenghts on a Heavy surface he detests. A slightly longer break between runs this time but he isn’t as fit being second up this time around. He is probably a winning chance but he might bean even better hope after he had had this run.

5. HAWKSPUR – Has an excellent historical profile and Jimmy Cassidy aboard is definitely a positive given his feats of the past tw weeks winning two Group 1 races.

This horse had a great Winter in 2013 winning all of his three starts by big margins, and he hasn’t been back since. The negative for him is a 28-day break, as he has failed to win from nine attempts with more than three weeks between runs.

He did run third in a barrier trial on April 13 over 1000m though, so perhaps that factor, his residual fitness, and a soft run from a good barrier will be enough to take him to victory. Looks one of the top 3 or 4 hopes in the race.

6.Banca Mo – Scratched

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7. AOMEN – He should relish a return to a firmer surface in this race to what he got in the higher class Queen Elizabeth Stakes last start.

He was beaten a little less than eight lengths in that race at a distance which was a query. He did hit the lead in the straight but maybe failed to run the 2000m. Back to 1800m is a definite bonus, and he looks a good rough chance to at least fill a placing.

8. HOOKED – Was very disappointing in the Doncaster last start, but his run in the George Ryder prior was very good.

A return to a Good or Dead track might be advantageous, and he should get that. He has drawn perfectly, and can race on the pace, so he looks ideally suited in this type of race.

Though he is yet to win at WFA, he has won at G2 level under a very similar weight scale (Waterford Crystal Mile). No reason why he shouldn’t be considered a winning chance in this.

9. SIR MOMENTS – Is a high quality Brisbane galloper who has a Group 2 Qld Guineas three-year-old win on his resume.

He is in form off four runs this preparation, coming into this race off a 1600m victory 14 days ago. That gives him a nice fitness edge over most of his rivals here and back in November last year he finished right alongside Rudy, conceding that horse 6 kilograms.

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Given that horse ran a great fourth in the Doncaster Mile recently, he comes under serious consideration here. He has won twice at this track, and the distance and WFA conditions are the only real negatives. Another with a winning chance.

10. I’M IMPOSING – Is another veteran at nine years of age and given he is yet to prove himself at WFA level he might struggle to make an impact in this race.

He has drawn very poorly and would probably need everything to fall into place given he doesn’t win too often. Not one of the better chances on what we know, but he is an enigmatic type who could surprise.

11. RUDY – Doesn’t look suited under WFA conditions, and it’s quite strange that being the big horse that he is, he doesn’t have a great record carrying this sort of weight (2/14 with 57kg or more).

Back home to Queensland could be advantageous, but his awkward barrier is perhaps not.Trained at the track he can’t be totally ignored given his recent improvement but he might be more of a place chance than a winning one.

12. ESCADO – Won the South Australian Derby as a three-year-old, but it wasn’t a great field and he has always seemed to be a bit below WFA level.

His recent form is quite good though, and Bush Padre did come out of the same race at Caulfield when winning this race in 2003. The furthest he has been beaten in his last nine start is 3.5 lengths, and he was less than two lengths behind in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap in the Spring.

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Only three wins from 30 starts is a definite concern, but he has drawn well, and his price is overs at $41. Maybe he a better place chance than a winning one though.

13. SILENT ACHIEVER – is a class act, and she is also a mare, which is great for this race from a recent historical perspective.

She was a great third in the Cox Plate during the Spring which should earn her favouritism for this race. It’s ten starts now since she won a race though, and she has seemed a little below her best in Sydney races recently.

She come back 600m in distance for this, and the twice she has attempted similar (both 400m), she hasn’t impressed. She is awkwardly drawn which might not help either, and she might be looking for a wetter track.

No surprise to see her win, but I can’t recommend her at her current price.

14. ARABIAN GOLD – Is another mare, who Suffered a training setback before the Doncaster Mile, so her effort to get as close as she did there was meritorious after a chequered run.

She is fourth up into her preparation for this, and has won her last two fourth up races. She won her first start in Queensland last Winter off a similar break, and the distance of 1800m is a perfect progression for her off a 1600m run last start.

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She looks very hard to beat from a perfect barrier and has the services of top jockey Damien Oliver. If she is over her injury concerns, and at her best she, will go close to winning this.

15. LEEBAZ – Gets a run after the scratching of Banca Mo, and is going to be a popular pick. He ran a great second in the Doomben Cup last Winter which proved he can handle this class, but oddly hasn’t won any of his starts since his Hawkesbury cup win prior to that race.

He looked to have the race in his keeping last week before being run down late, and is unknown off a seven-day break. He failed two starts ago off a nine-day break in the Doncaster which isn’t overly encouraging, but the Blinkers go on for this, and that could make a huge difference.

He is sired by Zabeel, and his offspring are renowned as improvers with them added. The track suits, and he will be up on the pace, and probably leading on a track that should suit. He has better fitness levels than most so probably has to rate as top pick given the historical angle.

16. WISH COME TRUE – Is second emergency here and even if he does get a start he looks a bit outclassed. He has won 1 from 12 since coming to Australia for Peter Moody and that strike rate should worsen after this.

17. PORNICHET – Is third emergency but he really deserves a start in this race. His run in the Doncaster Mile last start was good and I had severe doubts about him on a wet track there, despite his trainer saying he could get through it.

Back to a drier track here would be ideal and his European (French) form is good enough to suggest he could compete here at WFA level.

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He meets Hawkspur 2.5kg worse for beating him home 2L in the Neville Sellwood two starst ago. He could have won by more though so Hawkspur might struggle to compete with him again and that is capable at WFA level. 1800m for this horse would be perfect, but his barrier draw is a definite negative. Winning chance for sure though.

18. HOPFGARTEN – Surely won’t get a start as fourth emergency and if he did the distance and class of the race might be beyond him.

Conclusion:
Yet again I find myself going back to the historical data in choosing my winner here. Hard to go past LEEBAZ with Blinkers added, with ARABIAN GOLD my second pick, as she looks to have found the right race at the right time. HAWKSPUR looks a solid chance with ‘The Pumper’ aboard. PORNICHET a leading hope, though he probably won’t get a start, and ESCADO is my Each Way pick at a long price.

There are many other good winning hopes, and in reality it probably isn’t the best race to be wagering on. Some nice odds available though and I’ll be having a small interest on LEEBAZ and ESCADO.

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