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Geelong versus North game could end flag hopes

Expert
23rd April, 2015
21

Geelong and North Melbourne both entered this season with realistic chances and, no doubt, internal expectations of finishing top four.

For one of those sides, that goal will become distant this weekend.

The loser of Sunday’s match at Simonds Stadium will slide to a 1-3 season record. Since the recent expansion of the AFL, it has taken a minimum of 16 wins on average to finish in the top four.

That means one of North or the Cats likely will have to win 15 of their last 18 games to get the crucial double chance in September.

While both sides have a decent spread of talent, neither looks capable of winning the flag from outside the four.

Given they each also boast a clutch of key players in the fading light of their careers, after this season they could find themselves sliding out of premiership contention. In that light, the significance of tomorrow’s clash is massive.

The last time these teams met, in the 2014 semi-finals, North held off a fast finishing Geelong to earn a preliminary final berth.

It was a bitter ending for the Cats who had been eyeing up yet another flag after finishing on 17 wins for the regular season, equal to eventual grand finalists Sydney and Hawthorn.

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Geelong’s habit of making slow starts, only to finish with a rush came back to haunt them on that occasion. North blitzed them with six goals in the opening 17 minutes and the Cats could never reel them back in.

The man who haunted Geelong in that match, ruckman Todd Goldstein, again shapes as perhaps the most important player on the ground tomorrow.

Geelong were bossed at the clearances in both of their losses this season, first to Hawthorn and then to Geelong. The in-form Goldstein will gave North a major advantages at the stoppages.

The Roos’ big man is leading the AFL for hit outs this season at 40 per match to go with 15 touches. Goldstein doesn’t just rack up meaningless stats either, he is clever and accurate with his tap work and has a great understanding with his on-ballers.

The ruck has been a major weakness for Geelong ever since the retirement of big-game specialist Brad Ottens. Goldstein will be opposed to two players who are essentially makeshift ruckmen in Rhys Stanley and Mark Blicavs.

Stanley is a fantastic athlete but is not a natural ruckman and lacks the relish for heavy body contact that the best big men possess.

This description also fits the undersized Blicavs. It’s hard not to see Goldstein running rampant at the stoppages.

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The Cats will face an even bigger contest to keep things even in the midfield without injured pair Jimmy Bartel and Matthew Stokes, both of whom offer their side vitality when used around the ball.

North’s midfield has also been diminished by injuries this year although some of that slack has been picked up by inside mids Ben Cunnington and David Swallow.

That pair have been prolific in close this year, averaging 15 clearances a game between them.

Geelong have the advantage playing at home, where they’ve been so dominant for so long. But North match up very well against them.

It’s a hard game to pick. But what’s not in doubt is that the top-four hopes of one of these sides are going to all but evaporate on Sunday.

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