Round 8 is dominated by a Saturday packed with NRL action, and after successfully tipping an appalling two from eight last week, I will look to regain some form this week.
Canterbury Bulldogs versus Wests Tigers
The Tigers sit on the edge of the Top Eight following an agonising defeat at the hands of the Raiders last week. Their so called ‘spiritual home’ Leichhardt Oval offered little comfort as they failed to convert a 22 point lead against a determined Canberra outfit. They come into this one having won just 2 of their past 10 meetings against the Bulldogs and with a record of one win from their past five games.
Aaron Woods is currently average 202.5 metres a game, along with 30 tackles and shapes as a key man in stopping the Dog’s raging forwards. The Bulldogs were good enough last week against the Sea Eagles, and will need their halves to increase their enthusiasm against a young Tigers outfit. Trent Hodkinson has recorded two try assists so far this season and will be eager to step up in order to control this game. Their experience should be enough to get them home in the end.
Bulldogs by 8
New Zealand Warriors versus Gold Coast Titans
The Anzac Day festivities begin early, with the Warriors and Titans battling it out in what should be a high scoring affair. Both sides have are conceding 21 points per game, while also scoring 21 points per game. The real statistic comes in recent head to head battles, with the Warriors having won eight in a row against the Titans.
The last time these sides met at Mt Smart Stadium, the Titans scored a doughnut for the first time in the club’s history, being convincingly thumped 42-0. Form, however, suggests a closer battle. The Titans put in an 80 minute performance against the Panthers, and I will concede were far better at building pressure. The Warriors, on the other hand, let it slip in the last moments against the Cowboys. However, they will look to carry what was a very solid performance into this clash and their rampaging back line will look to isolate the Titans, who are missing 39 tackles a game. Chad Townsend currently finds himself in career-best form with six try assists and two tries to his name. This can be compared to Shaun Johnson’s two try assists and one try. However, he is beginning to find form and could be the difference in this one.
Warriors by a field goal.
Newcastle Knights versus North Queensland Cowboys
Oh dear. After winning four in a row, the Knights’ armour of steel has rusted. They
have now lost three in a row and have relinquished control of the Fortress Hunter. Perhaps, the motivation of an Anzac Day tradition may wake the beast. If I was Rick Stone, Jake Mamo would be coming into the Newcastle outfit at the expense of James McManus. McManus has always been a solid player, but Mamo provides that attacking spark they are currently missing.
The Knights have won 4 of their past 10 against the Cowboys, who find themselves in red hot form following a dour start to the season. With victories over fancied opponents, the Cowboys have rose up the ladder and carry blistering form into this one. The Knights highest averaging metre eater this season in the forwards has been Kane Snowden with 117.4m per game. However, this is eclipsed by both Jason Taumalolo and Matthew Scott who are averaging 155.1 and 140 metres respectively. It is however, the battle between Johnathan Thurston and Jarrod Mullen which will decide this one, and with a superior record this season the Queensland halfback should give the Cowboys five on the trot.
Cowboys by 14
Sydney Roosters versus St George Illawarra Dragons
This one shapes as the match of the round. The traditional Anzac Clash is intensified by the form of the Dragons side. The Roosters, while having dropped three straight, will still ensure a quality game of rugby league. Despite recent form in 2015, the Roosters have won five straight against the Dragons, winning by an average of 21 points. However, it is in defence where the Dragons have held firm, conceding a mere 10.6 points per game compared to the Roosters’ respectable 16.4.
On the attacking side of the ball, it is the Roosters who have the edge. It is in creating tries where Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney have excelled, totalling six and seven try assists respectively compared to Widdop and Marshall’s three each. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is one to watch, having average 225.4 metres per game and five tackle breaks. In the end, the Dragons need to win this one to cement their position as a genuine contender this year, and the loss of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves takes grunt out of the Rooster’s pack.
Dragons by 2
Melbourne Storm versus Manly Sea Eagles
Better keep an eye on the late mail in this one. Cooper Cronk is in doubt, while Billy Slater is firming to play. The potential loss of Cronk would hinder Melbourne’s chances of an annihilation in this one against a Manly side who have been ravaged by injury and off-field dramas. They field one of the best halves pairing in the NRL, yet they are yet to match their lofty expectations. In their past four clashes at AAMI Park, the Storm have won three with another in 2013 ending in a draw.
Recent form suggests this trend will continue. The Sea Eagles have won zero of their last five while the Storm have firmed their premiership credentials having only lost one of their past five. They have also averaged 15 points conceded per game and 21 scored. This, when compared to Manly (14 scored, 24 conceded) confirms this should be quite an easy task for a professional Storm team. However, we all know that Manly possess the talent to cause an upset and they have already beaten Melbourne once this year.
Storm by 20
Brisbane Broncos versus Parramatta Eels
After a long day of lounging, the Anzac extravaganza comes to an end in Brisbane, when the Broncos host the energetic Eels. After losing two straight matches following that shock victory over Souths, the Eels bounced back against the Knights off the back of Chris Sandow. The Broncos, on the other hand, finally dropped a game, as they succumbed to the defensive wall of St George. Recent history in this one is split at five a piece. However, at Suncorp Stadium the Eels hold an advantage, winning three of their past five.
What may worry Parramatta fans is their defence, having conceded 24 points a game on average. They, however, hold a slender lead offensively. The Eels will be hoping for the return of boom winger Semi Radradra who scored four tries in his two games played this season. In my opinion, this one will come down to the forward battle. If the Eels can match the array of representative forwards Brisbane have on offer, an upset is a chance.
Eels by 4
Penrith Panthers versus Cronulla Sharks
As a Penrith fan, I am feeling duded by yet another horror injury toll. The most of which is being felt through the lacklustre performance of fill-in halves Apisai Koroisau and Isaac John. Unfortunately, they have been unable to guide the side around, with Matty Moylan and ‘Chicko’ Segeyaro doing most of the organising. What is even more worrying is that neither have had one try assist this season, with Matt Moylan gathering nine.
I am begging for the return of Soward soon because we are struggling. But, can you imagine the pressure on him when he does return? Luckily, Dean Whare returns to add some experience to a young backline, while Elijah Taylor rates himself a good chance of returning. Note that many NSW Cup players, including fill-in half from 2014 Will Smith have been named on an extended bench, so watch for late changes.
The Sharks have been both determined and impressive of late, defeating the Knights, Roosters and finally the Rabbitohs in a massive scalp. They have also won four of their past five against Penrith. They will need to control Penrith’s second-phase play with the Panthers averaging 16 offloads a game. For the Panthers, they will be praying Elijah Taylor does return, after averaging a massive 40 missed tackles a game. Taylor has averaged 50 tackles a game, only missing three. The home crowd gives Penrith a shot here despite recent form and Sharks fans, don’t be discouraged as this tip is partially based upon loyalty. If the Sharks do win this one, it will be a blow out. However, I will never tip against my Panthers.
Panthers by 2
South Sydney Rabbitohs versus Canberra Raiders
The Rabbitohs have made me feel just slightly better about my Panthers because they too are struggling without the direction of Adam Reynolds and face a stern test against a never-say-die Raiders team. The Raiders can beat any team on their day, however, Souths have won four of their past five against the Green Machine and will travel to Barlow Park to regain momentum following two straight losses.
The statistics fair quite evenly for both sides with neither having a clear advantage over the other, except for their position on the ladder of course. The Raiders cannot be discounted here, but the Rabbitohs should be too desperate late to get home quite comfortably in the end. I expect Dylan Walker to score a couple of tries in this one and provide some attacking flair.
Rabbitohs by 18
My best bet for Round 8 is the Dragons at $4 to win 1-12 with Sportsbet. If you are looking for something which pays more, the Warriors by one (excluding Golden Point) is paying $61 and such margins as six are even worth $17. Good luck this round.
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