Anzac Day footy across the ditch may not carry the same history as an Essendon-Collingwood blockbuster at the ‘G.
But St Kilda’s clash with Carlton in Wellington can at least take the cake (tin) as the most interesting of this weekend’s least interesting games.
For the Blues, a loss here would finish off the recalibration that has occurred with the expectations on them in 2015.
Carlton for mine always looked like a bottom four side, but a combination of faith in Mick Malthouse and a bit of overenthusiasm for their prospects ensured a slow start to the year would have major repercussions in the media.
And what have we seen in those opening rounds? Carlton are giving up 114 points a game. They have a percentage of just 33.65 in second quarters and 36.47 in third quarters.
Their best ball winner – Marc Murphy with 24 disposals a game – ranks equal 50th in the comp. Liam Jones leads their goal kicking with four.
The most promising sign came last week when they got within 21 points of Essendon – who have looked good this year – but things aren’t pretty and it’s clear the rebuilding phase has begun.
For the Saints, it’s been more promising. A competitive performance against GWS and a win over Gold Coast have ensured nobody has been talking in overly dramatic tones about them – yet.
Last week’s Friday night fizzer against Collingwood was a bit of a different story. The 74-point loss wouldn’t have won any fans.
But here’s the positive side of things: St Kilda do have individuals standing out.
David Armitage is averaging 31 disposals while Jack Steven and Adam Schneider are both winning north of 25. Josh Bruce is making a name for himself as a key forward with 10 goals so far. Maverick Weller is the league’s top tackler with 24.
This may very well be a wooden spoon preview, but it’s also a chance for two young squads to make a name for themselves. Particularly with names like Riewoldt, Montagna and Judd out.
For mine, the tip goes to St Kilda, who have started the year better.
The other factor is what playing at Westpac Stadium brings into the equation.
The Blues are particularly weak when it comes to defending the opposition inside 50. On average, each inside 50 against Carlton this year has led to 2.13 points – the leakiest defensive 50 in the league.
That could be huge because Westpac Stadium, obviously a fairly small ground, won’t provide them the luxury of hiding their struggles once the opposition move it forward.
In the previous two clashes at the ground, teams have always generated more inside 50s than their season average.
On top of that St Kilda, who rank fifth in the comp for marks inside 50 and have two years of playing in New Zealand under their belt, seem well positioned to make them pay.
Either way, if you’re back from your dawn service or morning march in time, it’s worth flicking on the TV for the clash. We should get a good read of where both clubs are at.
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